Weather Forecast Outlook for 21 Mar 2018 – 15Apr 2018 (Noon, Mon., March 19, 2018)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Dear Agents, Agronomists, Growers and Friends,

After the brief warm up over the weekend into early in the week, the pattern once again turns colder than normal  for the upcoming week, especially Wednesday through Friday. During that period the region’s weather will be dominated by northwest flow and below normal temperatures with scattered rain and snow showers across the region. There is a significant threat for below freezing overnight temperature during this period, especial for any locations where skies clear out overnight.

We  expect the weather pattern to change the following  week with a warm and wet southwesterly flow developing across the region with a warming trend to near to slightly  above normal temperatures for the remainder of March.

Still expect  April and May to be slightly warmer than normal. April is now starting to look like it will be wetter than normal for the first half of the month with below normal rainfall for the second half of April and near normal rainfall in May.

When using medium to long range forecasts for planning purposes, one needs to keep in mind that the medium to long range models tend to have their largest forecast error during this time of year because of  very strong north to south thermal gradients in the mid-latitudes. So forecasts can change very quickly.

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5   (21 Mar – 23 Mar) Temperatures cool to well below normal; scattered rain and snow showers all regions early-mid period.  Colder air moves into the forecast area as a low pressure system exits to the east and a cold high pressure system moves in from the NW. There is a significant chance of overnight below freezing temperatures all regions especially for any locations where skies clear out overnight. Scattered rain and snow showers all regions early in period and region 1 and 2 through mid-period. Precipitation amounts will likely be 0.10 – 0.20” range.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   37-51 62 26-34 40
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   43-49 60 28-40 44
Reg 3    Clayton NC      45-53 66 27-39 43
Reg 4    Jackson NC       49-54 67 29-37 46
Reg 5    Greenville SC   50-60 66 28-34 45

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (24 Mar – 26 Mar) Temperatures warm but stay below normal all regions; scattered showers all period. Expect a low pressure system to move through and east of the region by mid period while a second low pressure and frontal system will slowly approach the forecast area from the west late in the period. This will allow the northwest flow to slowly weaken and eventually be replaced by a southwesterly flow warming temperatures to above normal. The first system will cause scattered showers  early in the period while the approaching second system is expected to cause periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms mid to late in the period. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.35– 0.50” range for most locations.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   53-61 63 33-38 41
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   51-60 61 38-44 45
Reg 3    Clayton NC      53-65 67 35-40 44
Reg 4    Jackson NC       59-69 68 43-51 47
Reg 5    Greenville SC   58-66 67 40-47 46

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (27 Mar – 29 Mar) Temperatures warm to slightly above normal; scattered showers early with widespread showers and thunderstorms mid to late period.  Warmer air moves into the forecast area as a cold front approaches the region from west to east. Showers and thunderstorms will be ahead of and along the cold front. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.50 – 0.75” range.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   61-70 64 39-47 42
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   60-69 62 42-46 46
Reg 3    Clayton NC      63-71 68 39-46 45
Reg 4    Jackson NC       65-75 69 47-51 48
Reg 5    Greenville SC   63-69 68 42-48 47

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (30 Mar – 1 Apr) Temperatures cool to near normal all regions; widespread rain mid to late period. Expect a low pressure system to move up from the LA region and through the forecast area during this period. This will keep temperatures near normal and cause periods of widespread steady rain late in period. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.35– 0.55” range.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   63-68 65 42-48 43
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   60-67 63 44-51 46
Reg 3    Clayton NC      67-73 69 43-50 46
Reg 4    Jackson NC       69-74 70 47-50 49
Reg 5    Greenville SC   62-71 69 40-50

Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 2 Apr – 15 Apr

Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 2 Apr – 15 Apr

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:   (2 Apr – 8 Apr Mar) Early indications are that temperatures and precipitation will be near to slightly above the seasonal average during this period.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (9 Apr – 15 Apr) Early indications are that temperatures and precipitation will be above the seasonal average during this period.