Saturday Evening Frost Update From AWIS (6:53pm, March 17, 2018)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Good evening,

There was a serious frost this morning in many areas of the state that  “just sort of snuck up on us,”  as John Gross (Sanford) said to me this morning. Growers who removed row covers yesterday morning (Friday) to get the crop “opened up” for pollination purposes — had to run sprinkler irrigation systems this morning. Up here in Williamsburg, VA (where I live), we had a tremendous frost this morning (got to 26 F).

NC Risk for Frost on Sunday morning??

It does not appear that there is any great frost risk for Sunday morning across the state, but in some areas where you see those powder blue (38-40) and teal bands (36-38), I might be inclined to do a“a little wandering around in the field in the early morning to see what is really going on (Scot Luton, Roper, NC).”

Fig. 1. Minimum temperatures for NC on Sunday morning

In examining some locations in the “Inner Banks” region of NC, like Ahoskie, Ahoskie Sunday morning you can see the minimum is expected to be 38 with OVC skies (overcast), but if skies were to clear in the early morning, and winds drop just a little bit, guess what might happen in some of those “cold pockets”?

Sunday night/Monday morning

Looking ahead to Sunday night/Monday morning, the probability of frost is much greater in Ahoskie/Edenton areas as skies will be clear, and winds in 0-1 mph range. With a dew point of 32 F on Monday morning  these are near about perfect radiation frost conditions.

Every area of the state is different, and you will want to do some advance FROST planning for what is ahead in your area this week. And, please note that there is going to be risk of frost right into next Friday morning. Here are the minimum temperature state maps for Monday – Saturday, and FRIDAY MORNING is looking like the coldest morning of the week.

How is the crop advancing in different areas?

Up here in VA where I now live, we have a very cold week on tap this week, and we are still a good ways off from the start of the season. However, I received these 2 photos of Merced today from a southeastern NC grower!

Figs. 2 and 3. This is Merced in Southeastern NC (near Wilmington) on March 17th

And, I asked Clyde Gurosik, N. Augusta, SC, if he could share with us his season starting dates for the last 5 years (last year was super early). His goal is to be open 3/23 this year.

Dr. Poling,

Here is the data requested:
3/23/18 GOAL
3/18/17 all 6 markets, some by 3/1/17
4/2/16
4/11/15
4/7/14
4/3/13
3/31/12

Bet if I go to the history files, available thru www.weather.uga.edu, there will be some correlations.
Clyde

Fig. 4. Camarosa on 3/12 in N. Augusta, SC.

North Carolina

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS FOR NC

Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

AWIS Weather Services, Inc. North Carolina Frost/Freeze Forecast
Produced at  505 p.m. CDT on Sat Mar 17 2018

... Forecast for Tonight ... Northeast NC Coast                      
Currituck/Camden/Pasquotank/Tyrrell Counties      
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO CLOUDS **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      38 - 45
Elizabeth_City Min          38 
Range Dewpoint Temps:     29 - 50
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     34 - 53
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE  7                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Cloudy   

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/19/18  03/20/18  03/21/18  03/22/18  03/23/18  03/24/18
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   37 - 44   44 - 50   39 - 45   34 - 40   35 - 41   37 - 43
--------

East Central/SE NC Coast                
Carteret/Pamlico Counties                         

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      47 - 50
Morehead_City Min           49 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/19/18  03/20/18  03/21/18  03/22/18  03/23/18  03/24/18
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   38 - 42   51 - 52   39 - 44   31 - 36   33 - 36   38 - 41
--------

Southeast NC                            
NWS FORECAST ZONES 87-90,96-101                   

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      45 - 53
Elizabethtown Min           48 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/19/18  03/20/18  03/21/18  03/22/18  03/23/18  03/24/18
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   40 - 48   49 - 54   39 - 46   32 - 36   30 - 34   35 - 41
--------

North-Central NC                        
Franklin County Area                              
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO CLOUDS **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      39 - 47
Louisburg Min               39 
Range Dewpoint Temps:     35 - 47
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     38 - 49
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE  6     Periods of Calm      
AVG Sky Condition:         Cloudy   

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/19/18  03/20/18  03/21/18  03/22/18  03/23/18  03/24/18
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   37 - 47   38 - 48   31 - 40   28 - 35   27 - 34   29 - 37
--------

North/Central NC                        
Alamance County Area                              

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      41 - 47
Graham_AG Min               43 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/19/18  03/20/18  03/21/18  03/22/18  03/23/18  03/24/18
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   42 - 47   41 - 46   33 - 38   30 - 35   29 - 34   31 - 37
--------

South/Central NC                        
Richmond County Area                              

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      45 - 49
Ellerbe Min                 47 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/19/18  03/20/18  03/21/18  03/22/18  03/23/18  03/24/18
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   40 - 48   45 - 51   39 - 41   32 - 34   30 - 33   34 - 38
--------

Interior/EC-SE NC                       
Wayne County Area                                 

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      44 - 50
Goldsboro_AG Min            46 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/19/18  03/20/18  03/21/18  03/22/18  03/23/18  03/24/18
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   37 - 42   47 - 51   39 - 42   31 - 34   30 - 35   35 - 38
--------

For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2018 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved. 

 

Virginia

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Abingdon Ashland_VA Charlottesville Chesapeake-Ches
Culpeper Danville Dublin/New_Riv Emporia_VA
Farmville Fentress_Naval_A Fort_Belvoir/Da Fort_Eustis/Fel
Franklin/J_B_Ro Hillsville Hot_Springs/Ing Jonesville_AP
Langley_AFB Leesburg/Godfre Louisa-Louisa_C Lynchburg
Manassas_Muni(A Marion/Wythev Martinsville Mecklenburg/Bru
Melfa/Accomack Newport_News Norfolk_Hampton_ Norfolk_NAS
Norfolk_VA Oceana Orange_VA Petersburg_(AWO
Quantico Richlands_AP Richlands_VA Richmond
Richmond_Chester Roanoke Shannon_Arpt Stafford_AP_VA
Staunton-Shenan Suffolk-Suffolk Tappahannock_AP Virginia_Tech_A
Wakefield_AP Wallops_Island Warrenton_Fauqui Washington_Dulle
West_Point_VA Williamsburg_VA Winchester_Rgnl Wise/Lonesome_P

Maryland

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Aberdeen Andrews_AFB Annapolis_Naval Baltimore_Sci_Ce
Baltimore/Wash Cambridge/Dorche College_Park_AP Cumberland_AP
Easton_MD Fort_Meade Frederick_MD Gaithersburg_AP
Hagerstown_AP Leonardtown Middle_River Oakland_MD_AP
Ocean_City_AP Patuxent_River Salisbury Stevensville_AP
St_Inigoes/Webst Washington_DC_AP Westminster_AP

South Carolina

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Aiken_AP Anderson_Co_Air Barnwell_AP Beaufort_Cnty_AP
Beaufort_SC Bennettsville_Je Camden_AP Charleston_Exec_
Charleston_Muni Cheraw_AP Chester_AP Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Conway_AP
Darlington Florence_SC Georgetown_AP_SC Greenville_Donal
Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green Hartsville_AP
Hilton_Head_AP Kingstree_AP Lancaster-McWhir Laurens_AP
Manning_AP Marion_AP_SC Moncks_Corner_AP Mount_Pleasant_A
Myrtle_Beach Newberry_AP North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Pickens_AP Rock_Hill Spartanburg_Down Summerville_AP
Sumter_AP Sumter_SC Walterboro_AP Winnsboro_AP

Georgia

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Albany_Municipa Alma/Bacon_Co Americus_AP Athens_Municipa
Atlanta/DeKalb Atlanta/Fulton Atlanta_Intl_Ar Atlanta_Paulding
Augusta/Bush_Fi Augusta_Daniel_F Bainbridge_GA Blakely_AP
Brunswick_GA Brunswick/Glync Canton_GA Carrollton_AP
Cartersville_AP Claxton_AP Columbus_GA Covington_GA_AP
Dalton-Dalton_M Douglas_Muni Dublin/WHBarron Fitzgerald_AP
Fort_Benning Ft_Stewart/Wrig Gainesville_AP_G Greensboro_GA
Homerville_AP Hunter_(AAF) Jesup_AP La_Grange
Lakeland Lawrenceville_AP Macon_AP Marietta
Marietta/Cobb Milledgeville_AP Moultrie_Muni_AP Newnan-Newnan_C
Peachtree_City Rome_GA Savannah Statesboro_GA
Swainsboro_AP Sylvania_AP_GA Thomaston_AP Thomasville_AP
Thomson_GA Tifton_AP Valdosta Valdosta/Moody
Vidalia Warner_Robins_A Washington_GA Washington_GA
Waycross_AP Winder_AP

Kentucky

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Bowling_Green Covington Danville-Powell_ Fort_Campbell
Fort_Knox/Godma Frankfort_AP Glasgow_KY Henderson_City
Jackson_KY Lexington_KY London_Corbin Louisville_AP
Louisville/Bowm Middlesboro_AP Monticello_KY_AP Murray_AP
Owensboro_AP Paducah Richmond_Madison Somerset(AWOS)