Weather Advisory: Multiple Frost Events Ahead

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Weather Advisory: Multiple Frost Events ahead

In collaboration with AWIS weather services

In the coming two weeks, we will experience multiple frost/freeze events in the Southeast. It will be extremely critical to closely follow the daily weather forecasts, as predicted patterns can change quickly. Potential Frost nights in NC and North are: Sunday/Monday and for most of NC, SC and GA: Monday/Tuesday and Tuesday/Wednesday.

IF you are at 10% or more bloom, you will need to protect multiple times in the coming weeks. At this point of time, we would advise row-cover use or sprinkler/overhead protection, if wind speed allow. This might apply especially for areas in Eastern NC, the Piedmont as well as SC and GA: Protection from Monday to Wednesday, potentially Thursday coming week will be critical.

If you are not at 10% bloom, it is still too early!

General Discussion

*** Very Active Changing Weather Pattern Next Two Weeks+
*** Multiple Freeze/Frost Threats Ahead
*** Coldest Morning, Highest Frost Risk, Ground Freeze Wed AM 03/15

What is called a fast “zonal” flow of storms from West Coast
to East Coast will be the highlight in the next couple weeks.

This will bring in multiple chances for rain, with brief warming
ahead of the rain, and then a couple colder days/mornings behind
each event.

These events will be about 3-4 days or so apart as an average,
but could be slightly less at times.

There could be snow at times on the Northern fringes of these
systems, at least before the precipitation ends.

In most cases the first coldest morning will have at least some
wind, with the coldest morning generally the second morning,
with winds lighter and added frost risk some areas.

At this time coldest minimums will generally be in the middle 20s
ranges, mainly Northern areas, but there will be pockets of slightly
colder minimums, particularly on lighter winds nights.

Growers are also advised that on the lighter wind mornings, temperatures
typically closer to crop and ground levels can be 3-6 degrees colder
than those officially forecast for and measured at the 5 foot levels,
along with added frost risks, particularly where dew points are projected
to be in the middle 20s or higher ranges.

Growers are advised to keep updated on daily forecasts for timing
of these events for their local area, and the type of cold event
and timing of, behind each one of these systems. Daily adjustments to
extent of cold and/or timing is likely, particularly if more than
a couple days out into the forecast future.

It will be critical to follow advice from local consultants on
proper management decisions, which will likely vary by location
based on anticipated weather, and crop status.


A Quick Summary Of Weather Highlights Below:

Highest Precipitation Chance Periods, Mostly Rain:
Friday 03/10 Mostly 1/2 Inch, Higher Mainly Southern Areas
Sunday 03/12 Mostly 1/2 – Locally 1 Inch
Friday-Saturday 03/17-18 – Mostly 1/2 Inch Or Less

Mornings With Some Freeze Potential, But Also With Some Winds/Lower Frost Risks
Breezy At Times Saturday Morning 03/11, Mainly Eastern Carolinas Northward
Breezy At Times Late Monday Night – Early Tuesday Evening 03/[13 14]
Breezy At Times Late Saturday Night – Early Sunday Evening 03/[18 19]

Highest Frost Risk Mornings, With Colder Ground Temperatures
Sunday Morning 03/12/2023
Mainly Northern NC / Northward

Wednesday Morning 03/15/2023
Mainly Northern SC / Northward (Highest Freeze Threat This Day)
Perhaps Some Lingering Light Winds Extreme Eastern NC

Sunday and/or Monday Morning 03/[19 20]/2023
Perhaps Higher Freeze/Frost Risk Further South

Min Temperature Prediction Maps

East Coast Min Temperature Forecast. Tuesday 03.14.2023 East Coast Min Temperature Forecast. Wednesday 03.15.2023

Fig 1: Predicted Min. Temperatures for the Region for Tuesday (3/14) and Wednesday (3/15)

Regional Forecasts:

North Carolina

Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

South Carolina:

Aiken_AP Anderson_Co_Air Barnwell_AP Beaufort_Cnty_AP
Beaufort_SC Bennettsville_Je Camden_AP Charleston_Exec_
Charleston_Muni Cheraw_AP Chester_SC_AP Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Conway_AP
Darlington Florence_SC Georgetown_AP_SC Greenville_Donal
Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green Hartsville_AP
Hilton_Head_AP Kingstree_AP Lancaster-McWhir Laurens_AP
Manning_AP Marion_AP_SC Moncks_Corner_AP Mount_Pleasant_A
Myrtle_Beach Newberry_AP North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Pickens_AP Rock_Hill Spartanburg_Down Summerville_AP
Sumter_AP Sumter_SC Walterboro_AP Winnsboro_AP


Albany_Municipa Alma/Bacon_Co Americus_AP Athens_Municipa
Atlanta/DeKalb Atlanta/Fulton Atlanta_Intl_Ar Atlanta_Paulding
Augusta/Bush_Fi Augusta_Daniel_F Bainbridge_GA Blakely_AP
Brunswick_GA Brunswick/Glync Canton_GA Carrollton_AP
Cartersville_AP Claxton_AP Columbus_GA Covington_GA_AP
Dalton-Dalton_M Douglas_Muni Dublin/WHBarron Fitzgerald_AP
Fort_Benning Ft_Stewart/Wrig Gainesville_AP_G Greensboro_GA
Homerville_AP Hunter_(AAF) Jesup_AP La_Grange
Lakeland Lawrenceville_AP Macon_AP Marietta
Marietta/Cobb Milledgeville_AP Moultrie_Muni_AP Newnan-Newnan_C
Peachtree_City Rome_GA Savannah Statesboro_GA
Swainsboro_AP Sylvania_AP_GA Thomaston_AP Thomasville_AP
Thomson_GA Tifton_AP Valdosta Valdosta/Moody
Vidalia Warner_Robins_A Washington_GA Waycross_AP


Abingdon Ashland_VA Charlottesville Chesapeake-Ches
Culpeper Danville Dublin/New_Riv Emporia_VA
Farmville Fentress_Naval_A Fort_Belvoir/Da Fort_Eustis/Fel
Franklin/J_B_Ro Hillsville Hot_Springs/Ing Jonesville_AP
Langley_AFB Leesburg/Godfre Louisa-Louisa_C Lynchburg
Manassas_Muni(A Marion/Wythev Martinsville Mecklenburg/Bru
Melfa/Accomack Newport_News Norfolk_Hampton_ Norfolk_NAS
Norfolk_VA Oceana Orange_VA Petersburg_(AWO
Quantico Richlands_AP Richmond Richmond_Chester
Roanoke Shannon_Arpt Stafford_AP_VA Staunton-Shenan
Suffolk-Suffolk Tappahannock_AP Virginia_Tech_A Wakefield_AP
Wallops_Island Warrenton_Fauqui Washington_Dulle West_Point_VA
Williamsburg_VA Winchester_Rgnl Wise/Lonesome_P


Aberdeen Andrews_AFB Annapolis_Naval Baltimore_Sci_Ce
Baltimore/Wash Cambridge/Dorche Camp_David_HEL College_Park_AP
Cumberland_AP Easton_MD Fort_Meade Frederick_MD
Gaithersburg_AP Hagerstown_AP Leonardtown Middle_River
Oakland_MD_AP Ocean_City_AP Patuxent_River Salisbury
Stevensville_AP St_Inigoes/Webst Washington_DC_AP Westminster_AP

Written By

Mark Hoffmann, N.C. Cooperative ExtensionDr. Mark HoffmannDepartment Extension Leader, Small Fruits Specialist & Associate Professor Call Dr. Mark Email Dr. Mark Horticultural Science
NC State Extension, NC State University
Posted on Mar 11, 2023
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