AWIS Weather Advisory: Rain and Frost Risk for Mid-Atlantic, Virginia and Parts of NC

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AWIS Weather Advisory: Rain and Frost Risk for Mid-Atlantic, Virginia and Parts of NC

in collaboration with AWIS Weather Services

Dear all,

Upcoming rain and increased frost risks especially in Western and Northern NC, Virginia and Mid-Atlantic will put us again in a difficult position, especially if row-covers are used for frost protection. Minimum air temperatures can fall below 40s in most of those areas. Predicted dew points are low and we expect mostly cloudless conditions on two consecutive nights: from Wed to Thu and Thu to Friday. There should be about half a day to let row covers dry after the rain today and tomorrow and the nights with highest frost risks (Wed-Thu, Thu-Fri). It is important to watch your local weather closely, especially if you are in Western or Northern NC, Virginia or the Mid-Atlantic.

General Discussion

*** Some Frost Risk Northern Areas Thur/Fri Mornings

*** Cooler Mid-Late Week
*** Warmer This Weekend Into Next Week
*** Few Showers, Isolated Storms Later Tuesday
*** Dry Wednesday-Early Weekend, Showers By Early Next Week
*** Perhaps Much Cooler Again ~ May 7-8, Northern Areas

The first two days of this week were likely the warmest
over the next 7-10 days.

An upper level disturbance and cold front will then move through
all areas on Tuesday. Some showers and isolated storms can be
expected ahead of the front. Most rain totals will not be that
heavy, averaging 1/2 inch or less, perhaps isolated heavier totals
mainly Eastern Carolinas and Virginia.

It will turn colder behind the front for the middle and end of
this week.

Arctic surface high pressure behind this front is further to
the North, moving from Central Canada early this week, SE through
the Upper Great Lakes at mid week and into the NE States late
this week. This will keep the coldest air further North than the
last couple cold events.

However, the potential is there for scattered frost by Thursday
morning. Highest risk will be inland areas of the Mid-Atlantic,
including Virginia, but could extend into Northern areas of
North Carolina as well.

Likely not quite as chilly Friday morning, but some patchy
frost may still be possible over the most Northern areas.

Growers, particularly over the Northern areas, need to monitor
the latest forecasts and be prepared for some protective measures
if needed.

It will turn warmer again starting Friday afternoon, into early
next week.

The next chances for showers after Tuesday evening will be late
this weekend, more likely early next week.

Potential cool down again around the beginning of the second week
of May. But for now, temperatures look to stay above freezing and
frost risk levels.

Temperature Maps

Figure 1: Predicted Minimum Temperatures for the Region.

The most important thing to do this week is: Monitor your local weather forecast! If you decide to frost protect with row-covers, several things need to be considered: If you can, don’t deploy covers before or during the rain. In most areas there should be a dry time after the rain and before the night. Control for Botrytis before covering and after taking covers off. This is especially true if you decide to cover for two days (Thu and Fri mornings)

Regional Forecasts:

North Carolina

Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

South Carolina:

Aiken_AP Anderson_Co_Air Barnwell_AP Beaufort_Cnty_AP
Beaufort_SC Bennettsville_Je Camden_AP Charleston_Exec_
Charleston_Muni Cheraw_AP Chester_SC_AP Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Conway_AP
Darlington Florence_SC Georgetown_AP_SC Greenville_Donal
Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green Hartsville_AP
Hilton_Head_AP Kingstree_AP Lancaster-McWhir Laurens_AP
Manning_AP Marion_AP_SC Moncks_Corner_AP Mount_Pleasant_A
Myrtle_Beach Newberry_AP North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Pickens_AP Rock_Hill Spartanburg_Down Summerville_AP
Sumter_AP Sumter_SC Walterboro_AP Winnsboro_AP


Albany_Municipa Alma/Bacon_Co Americus_AP Athens_Municipa
Atlanta/DeKalb Atlanta/Fulton Atlanta_Intl_Ar Atlanta_Paulding
Augusta/Bush_Fi Augusta_Daniel_F Bainbridge_GA Blakely_AP
Brunswick_GA Brunswick/Glync Canton_GA Carrollton_AP
Cartersville_AP Claxton_AP Columbus_GA Covington_GA_AP
Dalton-Dalton_M Douglas_Muni Dublin/WHBarron Fitzgerald_AP
Fort_Benning Ft_Stewart/Wrig Gainesville_AP_G Greensboro_GA
Homerville_AP Hunter_(AAF) Jesup_AP La_Grange
Lakeland Lawrenceville_AP Macon_AP Marietta
Marietta/Cobb Milledgeville_AP Moultrie_Muni_AP Newnan-Newnan_C
Peachtree_City Rome_GA Savannah Statesboro_GA
Swainsboro_AP Sylvania_AP_GA Thomaston_AP Thomasville_AP
Thomson_GA Tifton_AP Valdosta Valdosta/Moody
Vidalia Warner_Robins_A Washington_GA Waycross_AP


Abingdon Ashland_VA Charlottesville Chesapeake-Ches
Culpeper Danville Dublin/New_Riv Emporia_VA
Farmville Fentress_Naval_A Fort_Belvoir/Da Fort_Eustis/Fel
Franklin/J_B_Ro Hillsville Hot_Springs/Ing Jonesville_AP
Langley_AFB Leesburg/Godfre Louisa-Louisa_C Lynchburg
Manassas_Muni(A Marion/Wythev Martinsville Mecklenburg/Bru
Melfa/Accomack Newport_News Norfolk_Hampton_ Norfolk_NAS
Norfolk_VA Oceana Orange_VA Petersburg_(AWO
Quantico Richlands_AP Richmond Richmond_Chester
Roanoke Shannon_Arpt Stafford_AP_VA Staunton-Shenan
Suffolk-Suffolk Tappahannock_AP Virginia_Tech_A Wakefield_AP
Wallops_Island Warrenton_Fauqui Washington_Dulle West_Point_VA
Williamsburg_VA Winchester_Rgnl Wise/Lonesome_P


Aberdeen Andrews_AFB Annapolis_Naval Baltimore_Sci_Ce
Baltimore/Wash Cambridge/Dorche Camp_David_HEL College_Park_AP
Cumberland_AP Easton_MD Fort_Meade Frederick_MD
Gaithersburg_AP Hagerstown_AP Leonardtown Middle_River
Oakland_MD_AP Ocean_City_AP Patuxent_River Salisbury
Stevensville_AP St_Inigoes/Webst Washington_DC_AP Westminster_AP