AWIS Weather Advisory: Rain and Frost Coming Up Again

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AWIS Weather Advisory: Rain and Frost Coming up Again

In collaboration with AWIS Weather Services

Dear all,

This year’s strawberry season has been so far characterized by fluctuating temperatures, often with heavier rainfalls in between temperature changes. Unfortunately not a lot will change in the next 7-10 days. We are facing rainfall especially this weekend into Monday, with increased frost threats in the Mid-Atlantic (Monday), extending to Western NC (Tuesday) and the entire region (Wednesday). There will be time to bring out dry row-covers between rain and frost night, so be patient and don’t cover with wet covers.

We also learned some lessons this year during the Mid March Frost/Freeze event. For those who chose to use row-covers during that event, winds of 30+ mph did lead to ripped covers and a loss of inflorescences and bloom due to the mechanical damage. That has impacted the past two weeks of fruit picking in Eastern NC. However, plants should be growing out of this damage at this point.

Luckily the predicted event for Mon-Wed next week will not be accompanied by higher winds and we expect a typical Hoar Frost event in most areas. Row-cover use or overhead irrigation should be the tools of choice to protect your blossoms over those days.

General Discussion

*** More Changing Weather Next 1-2 Weeks
*** Couple Rain Chances until Monday
*** Colder Early Next Week, Then Warmer Middle-End Next Week
*** Frost Risk Interior Mid-Atlantic Monday Morning
*** Frost Risk Extends A Little Further South Wednesday Morning
*** More Changing Weather Towards End Of April

A fast upper level flow over the Northern 2/3rds of the USA will
keep weather changing over the next 1-2 weeks, as multiple fronts
combined with multiple upper level disturbances move across the
country.

The next frontal boundary will move through early this weekend.
Best rain chances with that will be over Southern areas, where
locally one inch of rain is possible, but most areas closer to
1/2 inch or less.

Briefly cooler behind that for late this weekend into Monday morning.

Northern growers, particularly inland Mid-Atlantic, need to watch
local forecasts closely for Monday morning, for potential scattered
ground frost.

Then the next potential rain making system will come later next
Monday, with low pressure possibly developing and moving NE along
the Carolina coastline. This could result in some local rain
totals of an inch or more, mainly closer to the Atlantic Coast.

Behind that a brief surge of colder air again, with a threat of
frost a little further South into the Carolinas, mainly next
Wednesday morning.

Potential for some patchy to scattered frost as early as next
Tuesday morning in the more Western areas along the Appalachian
foothills.

Then a warming pattern for the middle-end of next week, along
with dry weather.

Looking further ahead, next threat of some showers and storms
about 10 days from now, around April 25-26 followed by another
cool down, mainly for the Mid-Atlantic, with some potential frost
risks around April 27-29 time frame.

Updates next week and after as needed.

Happy Easter weekend!

Temperature Maps and Recommendations

Figure 1: Predicted Min. Temperatures for the Region from Easter Sunday (4/17/2022) to Wednesday (4/20/2022). Frost threats increase especially by mid week.

Please look at your regional weather forecast. There will be rain in most areas especially in Monday, leading to soaking row covers if deployed before Tuesday. This can be a problem especially in Virginia, Western NC and the Mid-Atlantic, where early cultivars might already showing blossoms. Wet row-covers might cause more damage to your blossoms that doing nothing. On the other hand, if you only expect a light rainfall and you expect your covers to dry, they might save your blossoms during the nights from Sunday to Monday. It is imperative to consult your local weather forecast to make a judgment call.

For most of North Carolina, the two important nights to protect your crop is the night from Monday to Tuesday and from Tuesday to Wednesday. The last rain, as predicted right now, should be moving through NC Monday afternoon and there will be time to deploy dry row-covers. We will see higher winds on Tuesday (sprinkler use might be critical) that will slow down until Tuesday night to Wednesday.

Please ALWAYS look at the predicted temperatures, dew points and wet bulbs for your specific region, and keep wind and rain in mind. 

Regional Forecasts:

North Carolina


FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

South Carolina:


FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Aiken_AP Anderson_Co_Air Barnwell_AP Beaufort_Cnty_AP
Beaufort_SC Bennettsville_Je Camden_AP Charleston_Exec_
Charleston_Muni Cheraw_AP Chester_SC_AP Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Conway_AP
Darlington Florence_SC Georgetown_AP_SC Greenville_Donal
Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green Hartsville_AP
Hilton_Head_AP Kingstree_AP Lancaster-McWhir Laurens_AP
Manning_AP Marion_AP_SC Moncks_Corner_AP Mount_Pleasant_A
Myrtle_Beach Newberry_AP North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Pickens_AP Rock_Hill Spartanburg_Down Summerville_AP
Sumter_AP Sumter_SC Walterboro_AP Winnsboro_AP

Georgia:


FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Albany_Municipa Alma/Bacon_Co Americus_AP Athens_Municipa
Atlanta/DeKalb Atlanta/Fulton Atlanta_Intl_Ar Atlanta_Paulding
Augusta/Bush_Fi Augusta_Daniel_F Bainbridge_GA Blakely_AP
Brunswick_GA Brunswick/Glync Canton_GA Carrollton_AP
Cartersville_AP Claxton_AP Columbus_GA Covington_GA_AP
Dalton-Dalton_M Douglas_Muni Dublin/WHBarron Fitzgerald_AP
Fort_Benning Ft_Stewart/Wrig Gainesville_AP_G Greensboro_GA
Homerville_AP Hunter_(AAF) Jesup_AP La_Grange
Lakeland Lawrenceville_AP Macon_AP Marietta
Marietta/Cobb Milledgeville_AP Moultrie_Muni_AP Newnan-Newnan_C
Peachtree_City Rome_GA Savannah Statesboro_GA
Swainsboro_AP Sylvania_AP_GA Thomaston_AP Thomasville_AP
Thomson_GA Tifton_AP Valdosta Valdosta/Moody
Vidalia Warner_Robins_A Washington_GA Waycross_AP
Winder_AP

Virginia:


FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Abingdon Ashland_VA Charlottesville Chesapeake-Ches
Culpeper Danville Dublin/New_Riv Emporia_VA
Farmville Fentress_Naval_A Fort_Belvoir/Da Fort_Eustis/Fel
Franklin/J_B_Ro Hillsville Hot_Springs/Ing Jonesville_AP
Langley_AFB Leesburg/Godfre Louisa-Louisa_C Lynchburg
Manassas_Muni(A Marion/Wythev Martinsville Mecklenburg/Bru
Melfa/Accomack Newport_News Norfolk_Hampton_ Norfolk_NAS
Norfolk_VA Oceana Orange_VA Petersburg_(AWO
Quantico Richlands_AP Richmond Richmond_Chester
Roanoke Shannon_Arpt Stafford_AP_VA Staunton-Shenan
Suffolk-Suffolk Tappahannock_AP Virginia_Tech_A Wakefield_AP
Wallops_Island Warrenton_Fauqui Washington_Dulle West_Point_VA
Williamsburg_VA Winchester_Rgnl Wise/Lonesome_P

Maryland:

FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Aberdeen Andrews_AFB Annapolis_Naval Baltimore_Sci_Ce
Baltimore/Wash Cambridge/Dorche Camp_David_HEL College_Park_AP
Cumberland_AP Easton_MD Fort_Meade Frederick_MD
Gaithersburg_AP Hagerstown_AP Leonardtown Middle_River
Oakland_MD_AP Ocean_City_AP Patuxent_River Salisbury
Stevensville_AP St_Inigoes/Webst Washington_DC_AP Westminster_AP

Written By

Mark Hoffmann, N.C. Cooperative ExtensionDr. Mark HoffmannSmall Fruits Extension Specialist, Assistant Professor, Strawberry and Grape Call Dr. Mark Email Dr. Mark Horticultural Science
NC State Extension, NC State University
Posted on Apr 16, 2022
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