30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC (2pm, Sunday, May 14, 2017)

— Written By Barclay Poling
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“Final”  30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC

Weekly General Weather  Discussion:
The general trend will be for  well above normal temperatures  through the next week. Expect the very warm temperature to be followed by a cooling trend to start around May 25 bringing  temperatures down to slightly below normal  by the end of the month. Then expect temperature to warm again  to above normal levels for much of June. Expect  precipitation on average to be near normal from now through the end of June.

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5   (17 May – 19 May) Temperatures above normal; widely scattered rain showers possible mid to late in the period. A large warm high pressure system will slowly move east of the forecast region allowing a southwest wind flow to dominate the eastern US during this period. This will push temperatures well above normal with only widely scattered showers mid to late in the period but mostly dry conditions for most locations through the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.05” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 78 55 Greensboro NC 80 58
Richmond VA 79 55 Asheville, NC 77 54
Roanoke VA 77 54 Charlotte, NC 81 56
Hillsville VA 74 50 Fayetteville, NC 82 55
Salisbury, MD 75 54 Aberdeen, MD 75 54

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (20 May – 22 May) Temperatures cool slightly but stay above normal; wide spread showers throughout the-period. The large warm high pressure system previously mentioned will slowly move well east of the region allowing a cold front to slowly approach the region from the west. The temperatures will decrease several degrees as clouds and showers increases as the cold front approaches. Expect the period to see widespread showers and thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 80s to low 90s.. Low temperatures ranging from the low 60s to upper 70s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.30 – 0.60” range.

Climatology:

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 80 58 Greensboro NC 81 59
Richmond VA 81 57 Asheville, NC 79 56
Roanoke VA 79 56 Charlotte, NC 83 58
Hillsville VA 77 51 Fayetteville, NC 84 56
Salisbury, MD 77 56 Aberdeen, MD 77 54

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (23 May – 25 May) Temperatures cool to near to normal; scattered showers and thunderstorms early, widespread late in the period. The previously mentioned cold front moves through the region early cooling temperature and bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. By late in the period expect as second cold front to moves through the region bringing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms and cooling the temperature in the forecast region to slightly below normal. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures ranging from the low to upper 50s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.25 – 0.40” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 80 58 Greensboro NC 81 59
Richmond VA 81 57 Asheville, NC 79 56
Roanoke VA 79 56 Charlotte, NC 83 58
Hillsville VA 77 51 Fayetteville, NC 84 56
Salisbury, MD 77 56 Aberdeen, MD 77 54

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (26 May – 28 May) Temperatures cool to slightly below normal; scattered showers all period. Expect a series of weak frontal systems to move through the forecast area through the period. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal and cause periods of rain showers throughout the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the low 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.20 – 0.40” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 81 59 Greensboro NC 82 60
Richmond VA 82 58 Asheville, NC 80 57
Roanoke VA 80 57 Charlotte, NC 84 59
Hillsville VA 78 52 Fayetteville, NC 85 57
Salisbury, MD 78 57 Aberdeen, MD 78 55

Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 29May – 13 Jun

Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 29May – 13 Jun

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:   (29 May – 05 Jun) Early indications are that temperatures and precipitation will be near the seasonal average during this period.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (06 Jun – 13 Jun) Early indications are that temperatures be above the seasonal average during this period with precipitation near normal.

 

June Outlook 2017
Expect the forecast region to be generally warmer than normal during June. The expected position and activity along the southern storm track will promote warm and moist southerly flow into the Southeast US and Mid-Atlantic states during the period with near normal precipitation.