Weather Forecast Outlook for 7 Mar 2018 – 1 Apr 2018 (6:30pm, Sunday, March 4, 2018)

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Dear Agents, Agronomists, Growers and Friends,
The next  week will be a fairly active weather period. There is reasonable model agreement over the next two weeks that we will likely see a series of weak weather systems move through the forecast area  (mid-South) every 2 – 3 days. The systems will bring occasional precipitation to the region along with small swings in temperature from below normal to near normal with temperatures on the whole averaging below normal through about March 15.
The second half of March will likely see a trend towards above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. We haven’t had time yet to look deeply into the long term trends, but our initial analysis is that this trend of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation will persist into the months of April and May.
Weather Forecast Discussion Time Period Day 3 – 5
Forecast discussion day 3 – 5   (7 Mar – 9 Mar) Temperatures below normal; widely scattered rain showers possible VA early in the period. Cold and dry northwest flow dominates the period. Precipitation amounts will be on the low side in the 0.00 – 0.05” range.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   47-54 56 26-32 36
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   47-55 55 30-37 39
Reg 3    Clayton NC      48-53 60 25-33 38
Reg 4    Jackson NC       53-61 62 31-37 41
Reg 5    Greenville SC   53-57 60 24-36 40
 Weather Forecast Discussion Time Period Day 6 – 8
Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (10 Mar – 12 Mar) Temperatures warm slightly to near to slightly above normal; widespread rain throughout the period. Low pressure system moves in from the southeast bring widespread rain. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.50– 1.50” range for most locations.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   52-58 57 32-38 37
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   55-60 56 42-46 40
Reg 3    Clayton NC      58-63 61 34-42 39
Reg 4    Jackson NC       55-69 63 34-39 42
Reg 5    Greenville SC   56-62 61 32-44 41
Weather Forecast Discussion Time Period Day 9 – 11
Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (13 Mar – 15 Mar) Temperatures cool to near to slightly below normal; mostly dry conditions all regions through period. Cooler air moves into the forecast area as a low pressure system exits to the east. There is a chance of overnight below freezing temperatures especially in regions 1, 3 and 5 if conditions are clear and calm. Conditions stay mostly dry with only a slight chance of scattered showers early in the period for Region 1. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.05” range, with the greatest chance of precipitation in region 1.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   52-57 59 30-37 38
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   54-58 57 35-42 41
Reg 3    Clayton NC      54-60 62 29-34 40
Reg 4    Jackson NC      58-61 64 36-43 43
Reg 5    Greenville SC   52-60 62 27-41 42

Weather Forecast Discussion Time Period Day 12 – 14

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (16 Mar – 18 Mar) Temperatures warm to slightly above normal all regions; scattered showers all period. Expect a series of weak frontal systems to move through the forecast area through the period. This will keep temperatures slightly above normal and cause periods of rain showers throughout the period. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.20 – 0.40” range for most locations.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   59-67 60 38-43 39
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   57-62 58 44-48 42
Reg 3    Clayton NC      63-74 64 37-47 41
Reg 4    Jackson NC      65-76 65 43-53 44
Reg 5    Greenville SC   65-73 63 40-50 43
Temperature Outlook 19 Mar – 1 Apr
Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 19 Mar – 1 Apr
Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:   (19 Mar – 25 Mar) Early indications are that temperatures and precipitation will be near the seasonal average during this period.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (26 Mar – 1 Apr) Early indications are that temperatures will be above the seasonal average during this period with precipitation below normal.

Items of Interest:

April Outlook:   April outlook is for warmer and dryer than normal conditions for the forecast region.

Summarizing Forecast Discussions for Next 2 Weeks

3-day periods Temperatures Precipitation
Day 3-5 (7 Mar-9 Mar) Below normal Rain showers possible in VA early in period
Day 6-8 (10 Mar – 12 Mar) Warm slightly to near to slightly above normal Widespread rains throughout the period, and amounts in 0.5 – 1.5″ range (could be high botrytis infection potential if in bloom)
Day 9-11 (13 Mar -15 Mar Temperatures cool to slightly below normal Mostly dry conditions all regions through period
Day 12-14 (16 Mar – 18 Mar) Temperatures warm to slightly above normal Scattered showers all period
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