Weather Forecast Outlook for 14 Mar 2018 – 8 Apr 2018 (1pm, Monday, March 12, 2018)

— Written By

Dear Agents, Agronomists, Growers & Friends

The upcoming week through Friday will be dominated by northwest flow and below normal temperatures with scattered rain and snow showers across the region. By Friday expect a significant change in the weather pattern with southwest flow developing across the region and a warming trend to above normal temperatures.

Expect this trend toward above normal temperatures to last through the end of March. However even though we expect he temperatures to be above normal over the next few weeks, since we are in the spring season with strong north to south temperature gradients there could always be brief  period of below normal temperatures that could bring temperature below freezing in the forecast region.

The dominant global weather feature currently is a weakening La Nina condition across the eastern tropical Pacific which tends to promote a pattern of warmer than normal temperatures and dryer than normal conditions in the eastern US. However there are other factors that tend to promote cooler and wetter than normal conditions in the eastern US. When adding up all the factors the expectation for April and May is to be slightly warmer than normal with below normal rainfall in April and near normal rainfall in May.

Please be advised that Region 1 = Richmond area; Region 2 = Va Beach; Region 3 = Clayton, NC; Region 4 = Jacksonville, NC; Region 5 = Greenville, SC

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5   (14 Mar – 16 Mar) Temperatures below normal early, near normal late in period; mostly dry conditions all regions through period.  Cooler air moves into the forecast area as a low pressure system exits to the east. There is a significant chance of overnight below freezing temperatures especially early in the period. Conditions stay mostly dry with only a slight chance of scattered rain/snow showers early in the period for Region 1 (Richmond area). Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.05” range, with the greatest chance of precipitation in Region 1.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   55-58 60 25-40 38
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   44-58 58 27-40 42
Reg 3    Clayton NC      46-62 64 28-34 41
Reg 4    Jacksonville NC       48-63 65 29-44 44
Reg 5    Greenville SC   47-65 64 28-45 43

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (17 Mar – 19 Mar) Temperatures warm to slightly above normal all regions; scattered showers all period. Expect a series of weak systems to move through the forecast area through the period. This will keep temperatures slightly above normal and cause periods of rain showers throughout the period. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.20 – 0.40” range for most locations.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   62-68 61 43-51 39
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   62-65 59 47-51 43
Reg 3    Clayton NC      67-71 65 42-55 42
Reg 4    Jackson NC       66-73 66 44-53 45
Reg 5    Greenville SC   68-73 65 48-58 47

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (20 Mar – 22 Mar) Temperatures cool to near normal; scattered showers all regions mid period.  Cooler air moves into the forecast area as a low pressure system exits to the east and cold high pressure system moves in from the NW. There is a chance of overnight below freezing temperatures in region 1. Conditions stay mostly dry. Precipitation amounts will likely be 0.10 – 0.25” range.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   60-62 62 35-42 40
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   57-61 60 40-46 44
Reg 3    Clayton NC      64-66 66 39-43 43
Reg 4    Jackson NC       66-68 67 45-47 46
Reg 5    Greenville SC   64-66 66 44-46 45

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (23 Mar – 25 Mar) Temperatures warm to above normal all regions; widespread showers mid to late period. Expect strong low pressure and frontal system to approach the forecast area through the period. This will allow a strong southwesterly flow to develop warming temperatures to above normal. The approaching front is expected to be strong and will likely cause periods of widespread rain mid to late in the period. This weather pattern has the strong possibility of triggering severe thunderstorms and even the chance for tornadoes as it moves through the forecast region late in the period. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.50 – 0.75” range for most locations.

Temperature Forecast and Climatology:   

Region and Rep Station Fcst High T Range Climo High T   Fcst Low T Range Climo Low T
Reg 1    Richmond VA   64-69 63 43-48 41
Reg 2    VA Beach  VA   63-68 61 48-51 45
Reg 3    Clayton NC      67-77 67 47-50 44
Reg 4    Jackson NC       69-78 68 50-53 47
Reg 5    Greenville SC   68-75 67 48-50 46

Day 15 – 22 Outlook (26 Mar – 1 Apr): Early indications are that temperatures will be above average with the precipitation below the seasonal average during this period.

Day 23 – 30 Outlook (2 Apr – 8 Apr) Early indications are that temperatures will be above the seasonal average during this period with precipitation below normal.

Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 26 Mar – 8 Apr

Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 26 Mar – 8 Apr

April and May Temperature Anomalies

April and May Precipitation Anomalies

Written By

Photo of Barclay Poling, N.C. Cooperative ExtensionDr. Barclay PolingFormer Professor and Extension Specialist, Strawberries and Muscadines (919) 515-5373 (Office) barclay_poling@ncsu.eduHorticultural Science - NC State University
Updated on Mar 12, 2018
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