30 Day Strawberry Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC (8:58am, May 8, 2017)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Weekly General Weather  Discussion

The general trend over the next couple of weeks  will for  temperatures to stay below normal. After the early May cool period, expect the remainder of May  to see trend toward warmer and  drier conditions with temperatures near normal and precipitation below normal. Cooler temperatures should  be a real plus for strawberry flavor development. Next weekend’s “30 Day Strawberry Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC” will be our final Outlook for the strawberry season. The  main industry contributors to the weekly Outlooks are listed here. On a personal note, my hope was to cover the expenses for AWIS products, which were used EXTENSIVELY during the March 2017 FREEZE (this website set a record for number of page visits according to Google Analytics), as well as pay for a meteorologist to provide the weekly Outlooks. Unfortunately, the level of giving was down this season  and I had to absorb some of the expenses myself! Consequently,  it will be necessary to take a different approach next season.

Level of Gift Giving:

$1500 or more -I can’t say enough about this group!  This is an awesome level of support, and without it, this advisory service would NEVER HAVE HAPPENED!

  • Cottle Strawberry Nursery, Ron Cottle/Whit Jones, Faison, NC
  • Westech Agriculture Ltd., Nora and Raymond Dorgan, Alberton, Prince Edward Island, Canada

$500 or more:

Aarons Creek Farms, Inc., Gregg Gordon/Greg Williamson, Buffalo Junction, VA

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5   (10 May – 12 May) Temperatures start period below normal, warm to near normal by the end of the period; scattered rain showers likely through the period. Expect a low pressure system to form in the lower Texas Pan handle with a very slow moving warm front extending from the low to the east coast dividing the forecast region basically in half. South of the warm front temperatures will be near to above normal, north of the warm front will see temperatures below normal. The low pressure and warm front will slowly drift northeast over the three day period. The air in place ahead of the warm front is much colder than normal for this time of year so much of the region will start off much below normal for the season, but the tendency will be for a warming trend through the period to near normal levels by the end of the period as the warm front moves northeast. The low and warm format will bring wide spread but scattered showers to the entire region through the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 60s to mid 80s. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to low 60s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.20 – 0.40” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 76 53 Greensboro NC 78 56
Richmond VA 77 53 Asheville, NC 75 52
Roanoke VA 75 52 Charlotte, NC 79 54
Hillsville VA 71 47 Fayetteville, NC 80 53
Salisbury, MD 73 52 Aberdeen, MD 73 52

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (13 May – 15 May) Temperatures again cool to below normal; scattered rain early to mid-period. Expect a weak low pressure system to form in the LA Gulf region and move east-northeast through the forecast area by early in the period. This will cause a large area of rain by early in the period that will linger in the northeast sections of the forecast region into the middle of the period. Expect temperatures to be near the seasonal norm very early and then fall below average by mid to late in the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.30 – 050” range.

Climatology:

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 77 54 Greensboro NC 79 57
Richmond VA 78 54 Asheville, NC 76 53
Roanoke VA 76 53 Charlotte, NC 80 55
Hillsville VA 72 49 Fayetteville, NC 81 54
Salisbury, MD 74 53 Aberdeen, MD 74 53

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (16 May – 18 May) Temperatures remain below normal; widely scattered rain showers possible. A large cold high pressure system will slowly move southeast east into the forecast region. This will keep temperatures below normal with mostly dry conditions for most locations through the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.15” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 78 55 Greensboro NC 80 58
Richmond VA 79 55 Asheville, NC 77 54
Roanoke VA 77 54 Charlotte, NC 81 56
Hillsville VA 74 50 Fayetteville, NC 82 55
Salisbury, MD 75 54 Aberdeen, MD 75 54

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (19 May – 21 May) Temperatures warm to slightly to near normal; mostly dry through the-period. The large cold high pressure system previously mentioned will slowly move through and then east of the region. The temperatures will start the period below normal but will slowly moderate to near the seasonal average. Expect the period to be dry for most locations through the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the low 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures ranging from the low 50s to upper 50s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.10” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 80 58 Greensboro NC 81 59
Richmond VA 81 57 Asheville, NC 79 56
Roanoke VA 79 56 Charlotte, NC 83 58
Hillsville VA 77 51 Fayetteville, NC 84 56
Salisbury, MD 77 56 Aberdeen, MD 77

Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 15 May – 30 May

Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 15 May – 30 May

 

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:   (22 May – 29 May) Early indications are that temperatures will be above the seasonal average with precipitation below normal during this period. Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (30 May – 06 Jun)  Early indications are that temperatures will be above the seasonal average with precipitation below normal during this period.
General Seasonal Outlook Mar – May 2017
Expect the forecast region to be generally warmer and wetter than normal for the period Mar – May 2017. The storm track and position of the semi-permanent Atlantic high pressure system will promote warm and moist southerly flow from the Southeastern states into the Mid-Atlantic states during the period. With abundant moisture and expected precipitation, expect that there will be a tendency for the minimum temperatures to be well above normal and the high temperature averaging only slightly above normal.