30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC (6:25pm, Sunday, April 23, 2017)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Weekly General Weather  Discussion

The general trend until about May 2 will be for warmer than normal temperatures with near normal precipitation. After May 2 we expect there will be a general cooling trend across the forecast region with the potential of temperatures dropping to well below normal by May 4 through May 7 with the threat of overnight below freezing temperatures during this period.

After the early May cool period, expect the remainder of May  to see  temperatures  and precipitation near normal.

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5  (26 Apr – 28 Apr) Temperatures warm to above the seasonal average; scattered showers late in the period. Expect high pressure to slowly move through the area during the period. This will lead to mostly sunny, warmer and dry conditions as the wind flow becomes southwest. Expect to see a warming trend this period with temperatures rising to above the seasonal norm. Late in the period, expect a cold front to approach the western sections of the forecast region, bringing the threat of rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms to the forecast region. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 70s in the far north to mid 80s in the south. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.15” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 73 52 Greensboro NC 74 52
Richmond VA 72 52 Asheville, NC 69 47
Roanoke VA 71 50 Charlotte, NC 74 49
Hillsville VA 67 40 Fayetteville, NC 75 49
Salisbury, MD 69 48 Aberdeen, MD 69 49

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  29 Apr – 01 May) Temperatures remain above normal; mostly dry through the period. . Expect a strong high pressure system pressure centered over the western Atlantic to build westward stalling the cold front in the Mississippi River Valley region keeping the forecast region warm and mostly dry. This will keep temperatures above the seasonal average with mostly dry conditions across the region for the entire period. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper mid 70s in the far north to upper 80s in the far south. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.05” range.

Climatology:

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 74 53 Greensboro NC 75 53
Richmond VA 73 53 Asheville, NC 70 48
Roanoke VA 72 51 Charlotte, NC 75 50
Hillsville VA 68 41 Fayetteville, NC 76 50
Salisbury, MD 70 49 Aberdeen, MD 70 50

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (02 May – 04 May) Temperatures cool to slightly below normal; widespread rain showers through the period.  Expect the previously mentioned large high pressure system to finally move east of the region allowing the cold front to move east into the western sections of forecast region by early in the period. As the front moves through the forecast region over the three day period, expect wide spread shower activity and falling temperatures to slightly below normal by late in the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s in the far north to mid 70s in the south. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Precipitation amounts will likely in the 0.35 – 0.50” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 75 54 Greensboro NC 77 54
Richmond VA 75 54 Asheville, NC 73 50
Roanoke VA 73 52 Charlotte, NC 77 52
Hillsville VA 70 45 Fayetteville, NC 78 52
Salisbury, MD 71 50 Aberdeen, MD 71 51

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (05 May – 07 May) Temperatures continue to cool to well below normal; scattered rain showers through the period. Expect the colder air to move into the region behind the previously mentioned cold front causing below normal temperatures with the potential for below freezing overnight temperature in the northern half of the forecast region. Expect widely scattered daytime shower activity though the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 50s in the far north to mid 60s in the south. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the far north to mid 40s in the far southern sections of the forecast region. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.15” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 76 53 Greensboro NC 78 56
Richmond VA 77 53 Asheville, NC 75 52
Roanoke VA 75 52 Charlotte, NC 79 54
Hillsville VA 71 47 Fayetteville, NC 80 53
Salisbury, MD 73 52 Aberdeen, MD 73 52

Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 08 May – 24 May

Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 08 May – 24 May

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:     (08 May – 16 May) Early indications are that temperatures and precipitation will be near the seasonal average during this period. Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (17 May – 24 May) Early indications are that temperatures and precipitation will be near the seasonal average during this period.
General Seasonal Outlook Mar – May 2017

Expect the forecast region to be generally warmer and wetter than normal for the period Apr – May 2017. The storm track and position of the semi-permanent Atlantic high pressure system will promote warm and moist southerly flow from the Southeastern states into the Mid-Atlantic states during the period. With abundant moisture and expected precipitation, expect that there will be a tendency for the minimum temperatures to be well above normal and the high temperature averaging only slightly above normal.

Items of Interest

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Snow Cover:   The April 21 snow cover chart still shows snow cover in central Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba from some recent snow storms that impacted central Canada. Also still shows in northeastern Canada with most of the US snow free.