30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC (5:45pm, Sunday, April 30, 2017)

— Written By Barclay Poling
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General Weather  Discussion
The general trend over the next couple of weeks  will be one of cooling with  somewhat cooler than normal temperatures prevailing much of the time with near normal precipitation. At this point it looks the cool down  will be modest. After the early May cool period, expect the remainder of May  to see  temperatures  and precipitation near normal, but with a trend toward drier conditions.
The caveat to the temperature forecast is there are still some very cold temperatures in northern Canada that could act as source region for a cold outbreak in the eastern US if a prolonged broad northwest flow into the eastern US were to develop. Not expecting this to occur at this point but it is something that needs to be closely monitored. See the snow cover discussion and map for more details.
Forecast discussion day 3 – 5   (03 May – 05 May) Temperatures cool to slightly below normal; widespread rain showers mid to late in the period.  Expect a large high pressure system to recede to the east of the region allowing a low pressure system and cold front to move east into the western sections of forecast region by early in the period. As the front moves through the forecast region over the three day period, expect wide spread shower activity by mid period with falling temperatures to slightly below normal by late in the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s in the far north to mid 70s in the south. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.35 – 0.50” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 75 54 Greensboro NC 77 54
Richmond VA 75 54 Asheville, NC 73 50
Roanoke VA 73 52 Charlotte, NC 77 52
Hillsville VA 70 45 Fayetteville, NC 78 52
Salisbury, MD 71 50 Aberdeen, MD 71 51
Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (06 May – 08 May) Temperatures continue to cool to below normal; isolated rain showers through the period. Expect somewhat colder air to move into the region behind the previously mentioned cold front with below normal temperatures. There is a slight threat that some locations in the far northern sections of the forecast region to have below freezing overnight temperature. Expect widely scattered daytime shower activitythoughout the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the low 60s in the far north to mid 70s in the south. Low temperatures ranging from the 30s in the far north to low 50s in the far southern sections of the forecast region. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.00 – 0.15” range.

Climatology:

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 76 53 Greensboro NC 78 56
Richmond VA 77 53 Asheville, NC 75 52
Roanoke VA 75 52 Charlotte, NC 79 54
Hillsville VA 71 47 Fayetteville, NC 80 53
Salisbury, MD 73 52 Aberdeen, MD 73 52
Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (09 May – 11 May) Temperatures warm to slightly above normal; widespread rain showers likely late in the period. A large high pressure system will slowly move east of the region as a low pressure system forms in the lower Mississippi River Valley and moves east into the forecast area by late in the period. This will allow for above seasonable average temperatures with widespread showers developing by late in the period. Expect a cooling trend late in the period as the rain showers move into the region. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the 0.35 – 0.60” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 76 53 Greensboro NC 78 56
Richmond VA 77 53 Asheville, NC 75 52
Roanoke VA 75 52 Charlotte, NC 79 54
Hillsville VA 71 47 Fayetteville, NC 80 53
Salisbury, MD 73 52 Aberdeen, MD 73 52
Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (12 May – 14 May) Temperatures cool to below normal; scattered rain showers all period. Expect a low pressure system to slowly move east of the region by early to mid-period allowing much cooler air and below normal temperatures to move into the region. Expect the airmassthat moves into the region to be unstable which will cause widespread but mostly light rain showers all period. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to low 50s. Precipitation amounts will likely in the 0.15 – 040” range.

Climatology:   

Station High T Low T   Station High T Low T
Charlottesville VA 77 54 Greensboro NC 79 57
Richmond VA 78 54 Asheville, NC 76 53
Roanoke VA 76 53 Charlotte, NC 80 55
Hillsville VA 72 49 Fayetteville, NC 81 54
Salisbury, MD 74 53 Aberdeen, MD 74 53
Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 15 May – 30 May
Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 15 May – 30 May
General Seasonal Outlook Mar – May 2017
Expect the forecast region to be generally warmer and wetter than normal for the period Apr – May 2017. The storm track and position of the semi-permanent Atlantic high pressure system will promote warm and moist southerly flow from the Southeastern states into the Mid-Atlantic states during the period. With abundant moisture and expected precipitation, expect that there will be a tendency for the minimum temperatures to be well above normal and the high temperature averaging only slightly above normal.