Significant Change in Forecast – for the Better! (7am, Friday, 3/10/17)

— Written By

This is a GOOD MORNING!

About one hour ago I was examining the AWIS hourly forecast data for Kenansville, NC, and I initially saw that the forecast minimum for Monday morning was still 22 F. But, right at 5:45 am, the whole forecast changed – FOR THE BETTER!  Up until this significant change in the forecast, we have been looking at an Easter Freeze of 2007 type scenario.

Instead of seeing a very dangerous 22 F as a low in Kenansville on Monday morning (according to AWIS), it now looks like the minimum air temperature will only be around 30 F — an 8 F improvement! And, though there is some precipitation in the forecast, it will be rain and not snow.

So, now it looks like there is a very slight chance of frost at this location on Saturday morning. There is also a rather sneaky situation of seeing a FROST Saturday night at 10 pm, and that will be the night’s low temp (32) as well. Going into Sunday night, there is a chance of FROST at around Midnight (see table). And, then the threat of frost returns later in the week, with the most significant frost potential on Friday morning (March 17).

Bottom line: NC FARMERS may have dodged a huge bullet!

Kenansville Morning sky cover Min air temp (F) Time of minimum DP 6 am (F) Winds 6 am (mph) Frost potential
Fri/Sat Few clouds 34 7:00 AM 24 3 ?
Sat/Sun Overcast 32 10:00 PM 29 5 Frost 10 pm
Sun/Mon Scattered 30 5:00 AM 29 11 Frost midnight
Mon/Tue Overcast 42 5:00 AM 40 9 NONE
Tue/Wed Broken 31 6:00 AM 22 14 Unlikely
Wed/Thur Clear 27 5:00 AM 21 7 Frost at 6 am
Thur/Fri Clear 35 6:00 AM 33 5 Frost at 2 am

Here are the new minimums for this location (you can get an idea of the new daily minimums for your location by clicking on the town/city nearest your farm (below). AT THE VERY BOTTOM OF THIS ADVISORY I HAVE INCLUDED SKYBITS FOR CLAYTON, NC AND ANOTHER ONE FOR NEAR RICHMOND, VA. UNFORTUNATELY, HERE IN VA WE STILL HAVE SOME MORE SERIOUS CHALLENGES – YOU WILL NOTE THE LOW OF 23 F TOMORROW MORNING IN MOSELEY VA.

NORTH CAROLINA NC TEMP OUTLOOK

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

VIRGINIA VA TEMP OUTLOOK

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Abingdon Ashland_VA Charlottesville Chesapeake-Ches
Culpeper Danville Dublin/New_Riv Emporia_VA
Farmville Fentress_Naval_A Fort_Belvoir/Da Fort_Eustis/Fel
Franklin/J_B_Ro Hillsville Hot_Springs/Ing Jonesville_AP
Langley_AFB Leesburg/Godfre Louisa-Louisa_C Lynchburg
Manassas_Muni(A Marion/Wythev Martinsville Mecklenburg/Bru
Melfa/Accomack Newport_News Norfolk_Hampton_ Norfolk_NAS
Norfolk_VA Oceana Orange_VA Petersburg_(AWO
Quantico Richlands_AP Richlands_VA Richmond
Richmond_Chester Roanoke Shannon_Arpt Stafford_AP_VA
Staunton-Shenan Suffolk-Suffolk Tappahannock_AP Virginia_Tech_A
Wakefield_AP Wallops_Island Warrenton_Fauqui Washington_Dulle
West_Point_VA Williamsburg_VA Winchester_Rgnl Wise/Lonesome_P

SOUTH CAROLINA SC TEMP OUTLOOK

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Aiken_AP Anderson_Co_Air Barnwell_AP Beaufort_Cnty_AP
Beaufort_SC Bennettsville_Je Camden_AP Charleston_Exec_
Charleston_Muni Cheraw_AP Chester_AP Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Conway_AP
Darlington Florence_SC Georgetown_AP_SC Greenville_Donal
Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green Hartsville_AP
Hilton_Head_AP Kingstree_AP Lancaster-McWhir Laurens_AP
Manning_AP Marion_AP_SC Moncks_Corner_AP Mount_Pleasant_A
Myrtle_Beach Newberry_AP North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Pickens_AP Rock_Hill Spartanburg_Down Summerville_AP
Sumter_AP Sumter_SC Walterboro_AP Winnsboro_AP

GEORGIA GA TEMP OUTLOOK

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Albany_Municipa Alma/Bacon_Co Americus_AP Athens_Municipa
Atlanta/DeKalb Atlanta/Fulton Atlanta_Intl_Ar Atlanta_Paulding
Augusta/Bush_Fi Augusta_Daniel_F Bainbridge_GA Blakely_AP
Brunswick_GA Brunswick/Glync Canton_GA Carrollton_AP
Cartersville_AP Claxton_AP Columbus_GA Covington_GA_AP
Dalton-Dalton_M Douglas_Muni Dublin/WHBarron Fitzgerald_AP
Fort_Benning Ft_Stewart/Wrig Gainesville_AP_G Greensboro_GA
Homerville_AP Hunter_(AAF) Jesup_AP La_Grange
Lakeland Lawrenceville_AP Macon_AP Marietta
Marietta/Cobb Milledgeville_AP Moultrie_Muni_AP Newnan-Newnan_C
Peachtree_City Rome_GA Savannah Statesboro_GA
Swainsboro_AP Sylvania_AP_GA Thomaston_AP Thomasville_AP
Thomson_GA Tifton_AP Valdosta Valdosta/Moody
Vidalia Warner_Robins_A Washington_GA Washington_GA
Waycross_AP Winder_AP

MARYLAND MD TEMP OUTLOOK

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Aberdeen Andrews_AFB Annapolis_Naval Baltimore_Sci_Ce
Baltimore/Wash Cambridge/Dorche College_Park_AP Cumberland_AP
Easton_MD Fort_Meade Frederick_MD Gaithersburg_AP
Hagerstown_AP Leonardtown Middle_River Oakland_MD_AP
Ocean_City_AP Patuxent_River Salisbury Stevensville_AP
St_Inigoes/Webst Washington_DC_AP Westminster_AP

KENTUCKY KY TEMP OUTLOOK

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Bowling_Green Covington Danville-Powell_ Fort_Campbell
Fort_Knox/Godma Frankfort_AP Glasgow_KY Henderson_City
Jackson_KY Lexington_KY London_Corbin Louisville_AP
Louisville/Bowm Middlesboro_AP Monticello_KY_AP Murray_AP
Owensboro_AP Paducah Richmond_Madison Somerset(AWOS)

Written By

Photo of Dr. Barclay PolingDr. Barclay PolingFormer Professor and Extension Specialist, Strawberries and Muscadines (919) 515-5373 (Office) barclay_poling@ncsu.eduHorticultural Science - NC State University
Posted on Mar 10, 2017
Was the information on this page helpful? Yes check No close
This page can also be accessed from: go.ncsu.edu/readext?453092