Alert on Shutdown Times; Grower Reports; Re-Cap of Weather Outlook & Multi-State Forecast for Tonight (3pm, March 16, 2017)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Good afternoon (3 p.m.)

In this advisory you will find:

1. Re-cap of Regional Outlook that was posted this past Monday morning

2. Multi-state Forecast (MD-VA-NC-SC-GA) for Round 4 (Thur/Fri)

In general, we are anticipating a Black Frost across much of the region for Round 4 (Thur/Fri). There are important differences between a white (hoar) frost and a black frost. The most common type of radiational cooling event is a hoar frost. Hoar frosts occur when atmospheric water vapor freezes in small crystals on solid surfaces (sublimation), also called a white frost for the white layer of ice crystals formed on the ground, grass blades, twigs, and strawberry blossoms. The dew point (DP) temperature is  one of the most valuable pieces of information to determine whether conditions are favorable for hoar frost or black frost, and for tonight and Friday morning, low dewpoints will favor a black frost where you get a freeze stress (injury) without ice crystals (white frost) forming. Your digital thermometer readings will be the best guide as to when sprinkling should start and end – when the open blossom is reading 32-33, it is time to start. If you do not have have one of these instruments, please consult the AWIS Hourly Detailed Forecast for a location near your farm, and when the wet bulb temperature transitions from 34 F to 32 F, you need to have the system primed, and running! The rule is to start at a wet bulb of 33 F, and this will be coming fairly early in the evening. In Kenansville, NC, for example, the wet bulb will transition from 34 to 32 from 6 to 7 p.m. Sunset is 7:20 p.m. Air temp at 6 p.m. will be 44 F, wet bulb 34 F (dew point will only be 14 F), and there will still be winds of maybe 8 mph. You will want have water running before 7 p.m. (air temp 40, dew point 17, wet bulb 32 and winds 5 mph). Kenansville Hourly Detailed Weather Forecast

I have been speaking at 9 a.m. this morning (Thur) with a few growers in ENC, and it was interesting to learn from on grower that his blossom temps at about 5 p.m. last night under the cover were not that high – in the range of 32.5 to 34 F. The air temp outside at that same time was around 39? No matter, he had row covers down and cut on at 9 p.m. last night. I will share his minimum temp information in third section of this advisory when he texts me the bloom numbers this morning (in a few minutes … it’s about 9 a.m. now). His wet bulb will reach 33 F at 10 a.m. I am guessing he can shut down anytime if his blossom temps under the cover are safely up around 32-33.

Just in (9:35 a.m.) – Blossom Temp Readings near Kinston, NC (sunrise was 7:20 a.m.)…the grower uses Kenansville AWIS though; this area has AWIS wet bulb of 33 until 1400 (2 p.m.). So, this grower can shut down by 10 a.m. with blossoms this warm (as determined by digital thermometer);  otherwise, if you wait until the wet bulb reaches 33 F, it will be 2 p.m. today!

Kenansville 9 a.m. update AWIS

  • 37.5 for blossom close to top of covers
  • 46 F
  • 46 F
  • 49 F

Whether you are irrigating on covers, or irrigating without covers, when the blossom temps on digital therm are reading 32-33 F,  you are safe to shutdown. One thing we are watching today is how soon the covers that had all this irrigation will be drying out today? And, a related question, can I rely on row covers tonight only. My thoughts on this are: 1) I believe covers will be dry by sunset – sunny conditions today are a real plus, as well as low dew points and winds are going to be picking up quite a bit; 2) I don’t believe a single row cover will be enough protection for ROUND 4 if your area is going to experience minimums of 25 F, or less. I would agree with the producer I spoke with this early morning, it is hard to trust a single row cover to protect a crop below 25, and what we are looking at tomorrow morning are temps that will be down in that mid-20s range you see dark gray. Back in the piedmont, you see the light red (22-24) and red in foothills and mountains (20-22). The light gray areas may be ok with a single cover, but I would consider additional protection for dark gray and colder (double cover, or sprinkling on cover, or maybe dripping under cover).

Fig. 1. Minimum temp map for Friday morning

3. Grower Reports from the “bitter cold” Battle Lines!

Please feel free to send me a text at 919-418-9687, and crop photos, and I will include it here as the day goes on.

Here is Eric Hunter’s 7 a.m. report from Easley, SC

Good morning. Remember yesterday when I said that historically our second night of an event is always much worse than the first regardless of the forecast, and that was the primary factor that led me to make the decision to put a third cover on? It definitely proved true again. We are currently at 15 degrees and expect it to drop at least one more degree if not two. The good news? Putting on a third cover may have been the best decision I could have made – its 34 degrees (air temperature) under the three. That’s 19 degrees of protection! I didn’t have quite enough covers to put three covers over my entire acreage and have about 25% of the crop under two covers. It will be interesting to see how they fare. I don’t have a thermocouple under those. Given the information we gained yesterday, double covers gave us 13-14 degrees of protection, so it is going to be a very close call. 
Our late evening skybit last night had our forecast at 18 (it went up from 17 in its earlier am forecast). This is the first time this year that skybit has been off. AWIS had our nearest reporting station (Pickens) at 17. NOAA had us at 22.
Regarding the third cover, we didn’t put those covers on until 430-600 p.m. I don’t know if that made a difference, but our goal was to allow the sun to heat up the air as much as possible under the already placed two covers. Our three cover coverage consists of (2) 1.2 ounce covers and (1) 1.5 ounce covers. We have three sections where we have (1) 1.2 ounce, (1) 1.5 ounce, and (1) .75 ounce. Our remaining double covered rows are (1) 1.2 ounce and (1) 1.5 ounce.
And in regards to your comment last evening stating that this has been one of the worst weather events (surpassing the Easter freeze) in thirty years:  I couldn’t agree more. Given the stage of our crop and the temps we have faced, it is by far the most challenging and stressful event I have seen in my twenty years of growing berries. I never thought I’d be putting three layers of row covers on a crop. And speaking of row covers, I said this a few years ago and will say it again – I think row covers have become a necessity to our industry. Not just an insurance policy as I once viewed them. To myself, the row cover has become perhaps the most important tool we have.
10:50 a.m. – The fields with three covers are showing no losses. There is definitely some losses under the field with only two covers. A little too early to know just how extensive. Not all blooms are lost as there are a fair amount that appear good. I did find some early stage green fruit (just out of the flower stage) that was lost as well, but I think that may be minimal. I’ll shoot you an email after lunch once I can get a much better look. At my house it was 15 and it stayed there for a couple of hours. At my other farm, the temp was 15 at 6 a.m. but I wasn’t able to get back to check there. It’s always a few degrees colder there so my assumption is it did drop below 15 but I can’t say definitively.
I will give you an update around noon once I get under the covers and able to inspect the plants.

Tom Baker, VA Beach

Barclay, Our low temp was night was 24.4. Yesterday morning’s low was 24.8. (These are the averages of the 3 nearby WUnderground sites I watch.)
Of those three stations, the coldest yesterday was 24.4, this morning 23.7. No, the coldest site yesterday was not the same site as today’s coldest. Yesterday, the three sites were within 0.9 degree of each other, today 1.3 degrees. Dew point rose from 14 shortly after midnight to 18 at 7:10 a.m., now (11:45 a.m.) it’s back down to 13.5.I also watch Fentress Field on WUnderground, but I’ve taken it out of my “cold” decision-making. Fentress consistently runs 2 to 4 degrees above the others, I think their data is skewed by the runway pavement holding heat?

Regarding drip under row covers:

Remember what I told you about cutting on before blossom temps say you need to (do it before drip system freezes up)? Well, last night we waited a leeeetle too long at both farms! Both systems were frozen – not the flat tube and drip valves/lines but the hose from pump or main to field and/or the pressure regulators! What to do? We just let it run. I figured it would either push a little water through and eventually thaw itself, or an easily-replaceable hose would blow. Thankfully, at both farms, it thawed after running the pump a couple of minutes and we were okay.

Memo to self:  In the future, disconnect what you can from the drip system (hoses/pressure regulator, etc.) and drain them when turning off in the morning. Duh!!!

Of the two neighbors I talked with yesterday, neither planned to run overhead last night. Neither of them have row cover on the areas where they chose not to run overhead (though other areas have cove). Neither ran Tuesday night either; both ran Monday night.

That’s all folks!

Tom Baker

Beth Taylor, Whitakers, NC (2:43 p.m.)

Last night was one for the books for us. We started running overtop around 6:30 p.m. and did not turn off until after lunch today. We got down to 27. Around 2 a.m. it below freezing (30) and ice started to form on top of a couple of sprinkler heads. Then at 3:15 a.m. I had ice on top of all heads. We spent about an hour getting all the ice off the heads. To say the least that was an experience. We were all covered in a thin sheet of ice when we finished. Scott has always done the protecting and he had never seen ice buildup so fast like it did last night.

Overall we I think we did a good job. The digital thermometer I ordered last Friday with express shipping just arrived this morning. Hopefully I will be able to get this in the field before dark. It is SO WET I am not sure I can walk.

Our covers will never dry by dark, I still have a little ice in the field at 3 p.m. – so we will be running overhead again tonight – just hope we don’t have to start as early.

Summary:  Started at 6:30 p.m. with a temp of temp of 39. Dropped below freezing around 2 a.m. Lowest temp was 27 around 6 a.m. Turn off after lunch with a temp of 40.

Look forward to this being the last night for several days.

Thanks
Beth F Taylor
Fisher Farms Partnership
11735 Watson Seed Farm Road
Whitakers, NC 27891

(6 a.m. Thursday) Introduction – to get things started off this morning, I am going to share these AWIS minimum temperature maps for this Thursday morning. I normally don’t wake up in time to “capture” these maps that are “taken down” at 5 a.m.

1. Re-cap of Regional Outlook (posted this past Monday morning, March 13, 2017)

On Monday morning we sent out an advisory that the upcoming week would be a very cold and active weather period, and that has certainly proven to be the case! We also commented that there is reasonable weather forecasts model agreement until about Mar 20 (1st day of Spring). After Monday, March  20th, the US, Canadian and European models all show somewhat different forecasts. However, the atmospheric forcing resulting from El Nino-La Nina-Sea Surface Temperature patterns and the North American snowpack – atmospheric  thermal  pattern strongly indicate conditions will generally favor below normal temperatures with above normal  precipitation.

Trying to balance all the factors, our  best estimate is that the April to May time frame  will tend to see more seasonal temperatures and drier conditions from the mid Atlantic to southeast US. We will make  a comprehensive analysis of the long term factors and trends and provide a new update this weekend.

Wed. March 15 – Fri. March 17: Temperatures very cold, well below normal; scattered snow showers early in the period. To start the period, a strong “nor’easter” will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes causing a strong northwest wind flow in the eastern US. At the same time a very large cold “arctic” high pressure system will be slowly moving southeast out of central Canada into the region. This will result in very cold temperatures, in the range of 15 – 30 F below the seasonal average, from early to late in the period and only warming to 8 – 12 degrees below normal by late in the period. Expect the period to be mostly dry with only the chance of some widely scattered snow showers in the eastern half of the forecast region very early in the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 20s in the far north of the region to the upper 40s in the southern sections of the region early to mid-period. Expect low temperatures to range from the low 10s to mid 20s. Expect temperatures to warm about 10 degrees by late in the period. Precipitation amounts will likely be light in the 0.00 – 0.10” range.

Sat. March 18 – Mon. March 20 (1st Day Spring): Temperatures remain below normal; scattered rain/snow early to mid-period then rain western section late in the period. Expect the cold high pressure system from the last period to remain across the region during this period keeping temperatures 5 – 10 F below normal. Also expect two weak frontal systems to move through the high pressure from west to east bringing rain and snow showers early and rain showers late in the period. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 30s in the north to low 50s in the south. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to mid 20s. Precipitation amounts will likely in the 0.30 – 0.50” range.

Tue March 21:  (21 Mar – 23 Mar) Temperatures cool to back to well below normal; rain showers and scattered thunderstorms likely early to mid period. A cold front will movie through the region from the northeast to southeast followed by another strong cold high pressure system, once again bringing the temperatures well below normal. The cold front will likely bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid 30s in the north to low 50s in the south. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to low 20s. Precipitation amounts will likely in the 0.15 – 035” range” range.

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (24 Mar – 26 Mar) Temperatures warm to slightly below normal; Wide spread rain (snow in the higher elevations) early to mid period. It is still very early for details, but expect the possibility of a strong low pressure system to form in the upper Mid West US and move east through region over the period. Expect periods of wide spread rain with snow in the higher elevations during the forecast look ahead period. Expect high temperatures to range from the low 40s to low 60s. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. Precipitation amounts will likely in the 0.15 – 035” range.

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:     (27 Mar – 3 Apr) Early indications are that temperatures will be below the seasonal average and precipitation above the seasonal average during this period. Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (4 Apr – 11 Apr) Early indications are that temperatures and precipitation will be near the seasonal average during this period.

2. Multi-state Forecast (MD-VA-NC-SC-GA) for Round 4 (Thur/Fri)

General comments – on Monday (3/13) we said that by tomorrow (Fri), we can expect temperatures to warm about 10 degrees. That will be a welcome relief! But, for tonight and tomorrow morning,  We can anticipate a radiation frost event, but with this relatively dry air, we will be getting what AWIS calls a HARD FREEZE (most all NC areas are listed for HARD FREEZE tonight). I call this type of event a BLACK FROST, for growers using sprinkling, I would not rely on seeing white frost as an indicator of when to start protection.

Richmond County Area                              

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR ****

I would encourage NC growers to study the AWIS Frost/Freeze forecast for tonight very closely! Again, I regret that don’t provide this product for any of the other states in the region we cover, except GA and KY.

MD MD Outlook

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Aberdeen Andrews_AFB Annapolis_Naval Baltimore_Sci_Ce
Baltimore/Wash Cambridge/Dorche College_Park_AP Cumberland_AP
Easton_MD Fort_Meade Frederick_MD Gaithersburg_AP
Hagerstown_AP Leonardtown Middle_River Oakland_MD_AP
Ocean_City_AP Patuxent_River Salisbury Stevensville_AP
St_Inigoes/Webst Washington_DC_AP Westminster_AP

VA VA Temp Outlook

Please have a look at your minimum temp map for tomorrow morning below:

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Abingdon Ashland_VA Charlottesville Chesapeake-Ches
Culpeper Danville Dublin/New_Riv Emporia_VA
Farmville Fentress_Naval_A Fort_Belvoir/Da Fort_Eustis/Fel
Franklin/J_B_Ro Hillsville Hot_Springs/Ing Jonesville_AP
Langley_AFB Leesburg/Godfre Louisa-Louisa_C Lynchburg
Manassas_Muni(A Marion/Wythev Martinsville Mecklenburg/Bru
Melfa/Accomack Newport_News Norfolk_Hampton_ Norfolk_NAS
Norfolk_VA Oceana Orange_VA Petersburg_(AWO
Quantico Richlands_AP Richlands_VA Richmond
Richmond_Chester Roanoke Shannon_Arpt Stafford_AP_VA
Staunton-Shenan Suffolk-Suffolk Tappahannock_AP Virginia_Tech_A
Wakefield_AP Wallops_Island Warrenton_Fauqui Washington_Dulle
West_Point_VA Williamsburg_VA Winchester_Rgnl Wise/Lonesome_P

NC NC Temp Outlook

(Please see Min Temp Map for tonight in Figure 1)

AWIS Weather Services, Inc. North Carolina Frost/Freeze Forecast
Produced at  505 p.m. CDT on Wed Mar 15 2017

... Forecast for Tonight ... Northeast NC Coast                      
Currituck/Camden/Pasquotank/Tyrrell Counties      

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO WIND **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      22 - 29
Elizabeth_City Min          22 
Durations at/below 32:    10 - 15
Durations at/below 28:     0 - 12
Range Dewpoint Temps:      6 - 20
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     22 - 27
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW 11                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/17/17  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   27 - 33   44 - 50   39 - 46   35 - 42   43 - 51   43 - 49
--------

East Central/SE NC Coast                
Carteret/Pamlico Counties                         

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO WIND **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      23 - 27
Morehead_City Min           26 
Durations at/below 32:    11 - 13
Durations at/below 28:     3 -  9
Range Dewpoint Temps:      6 - 19
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     22 - 27
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW 10                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/17/17  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   26 - 30   44 - 47   40 - 42   35 - 40   45 - 51   47 - 49
--------

Southeast NC                            
NWS FORECAST ZONES 87-90,96-101                   

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      20 - 26
Elizabethtown Min           25 
Durations at/below 32:    10 - 14
Durations at/below 28:     4 -  9
Range Dewpoint Temps:      2 - 19
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     21 - 27
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW  8                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/17/17  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   25 - 29   44 - 48   37 - 42   34 - 38   45 - 52   45 - 54
--------

North-Central NC                        
Franklin County Area                              

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      17 - 24
Louisburg Min               17 
Durations at/below 32:    13 - 15
Durations at/below 28:     9 - 14
Range Dewpoint Temps:      1 - 10
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     18 - 25
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW  7                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/17/17  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   21 - 29   41 - 48   32 - 39   29 - 36   44 - 52   37 - 46
--------

North/Central NC                        
Alamance County Area                              

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      19 - 24
Graham_AG Min               22 
Durations at/below 32:    14 - 16
Durations at/below 28:     9 - 14
Range Dewpoint Temps:     -1 - 10
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     17 - 25
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW  7                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/17/17  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   22 - 28   43 - 48   33 - 38   31 - 36   47 - 52   39 - 44
--------

South/Central NC                        
Richmond County Area                              

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      21 - 25
Ellerbe Min                 25 
Durations at/below 32:    11 - 14
Durations at/below 28:     6 - 10
Range Dewpoint Temps:      0 - 15
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     19 - 27
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW  7                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/17/17  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   25 - 28   44 - 47   36 - 39   33 - 36   46 - 49   44 - 49
--------

Interior/EC-SE NC                       
Wayne County Area                                 

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      22 - 24
Goldsboro_AG Min            24 
Durations at/below 32:    11 - 14
Durations at/below 28:     6 -  9
Range Dewpoint Temps:      5 - 17
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     22 - 26
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW  7                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/17/17  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   25 - 27   42 - 46   37 - 40   33 - 38   44 - 52   44 - 48
--------

For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2017 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved.

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

SC SC Temp Outlook

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Aiken_AP Anderson_Co_Air Barnwell_AP Beaufort_Cnty_AP
Beaufort_SC Bennettsville_Je Camden_AP Charleston_Exec_
Charleston_Muni Cheraw_AP Chester_AP Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Conway_AP
Darlington Florence_SC Georgetown_AP_SC Greenville_Donal
Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green Hartsville_AP
Hilton_Head_AP Kingstree_AP Lancaster-McWhir Laurens_AP
Manning_AP Marion_AP_SC Moncks_Corner_AP Mount_Pleasant_A
Myrtle_Beach Newberry_AP North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Pickens_AP Rock_Hill Spartanburg_Down Summerville_AP
Sumter_AP Sumter_SC Walterboro_AP Winnsboro_AP

GA GA Temp Outlook

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Albany_Municipa Alma/Bacon_Co Americus_AP Athens_Municipa
Atlanta/DeKalb Atlanta/Fulton Atlanta_Intl_Ar Atlanta_Paulding
Augusta/Bush_Fi Augusta_Daniel_F Bainbridge_GA Blakely_AP
Brunswick_GA Brunswick/Glync Canton_GA Carrollton_AP
Cartersville_AP Claxton_AP Columbus_GA Covington_GA_AP
Dalton-Dalton_M Douglas_Muni Dublin/WHBarron Fitzgerald_AP
Fort_Benning Ft_Stewart/Wrig Gainesville_AP_G Greensboro_GA
Homerville_AP Hunter_(AAF) Jesup_AP La_Grange
Lakeland Lawrenceville_AP Macon_AP Marietta
Marietta/Cobb Milledgeville_AP Moultrie_Muni_AP Newnan-Newnan_C
Peachtree_City Rome_GA Savannah Statesboro_GA
Swainsboro_AP Sylvania_AP_GA Thomaston_AP Thomasville_AP
Thomson_GA Tifton_AP Valdosta Valdosta/Moody
Vidalia Warner_Robins_A Washington_GA Washington_GA
Waycross_AP Winder_AP

AWIS Weather Services, Inc. Georgia Frost/Freeze Forecast
Produced at  503 a.m. CDT on Thu Mar 16 2017

... Forecast for Tonight ... Northwest Georgia                       
NWS Fcst Zones 1-5, 11-12, 19-20, 30-31           

**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS  ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      30 - 35
Rome_GA Min                 33 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  4
Range Dewpoint Temps:     12 - 30
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     32 - 35
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:   V  1     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:     Partly Cloudy

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   47 - 52   35 - 40   36 - 41   48 - 53   40 - 45   38 - 43
--------

North Central Georgia                   
NWS Fcst Zones 6-9, 13-16, 21-23, 25, 32-37, 44-45

**** FREEZING TEMPERATURES ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      27 - 36
Dahlonega Min               31 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  8
Durations at/below 28:     0 -  2
Range Dewpoint Temps:     10 - 29
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     30 - 34
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW  3     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:     Partly Cloudy

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   44 - 53   32 - 42   33 - 43   45 - 56   39 - 49   36 - 45
--------

Northeast Georgia                       
NWS Fcst Zones 10, 17-18, 24, 26-29, 38-40        

**** HARD FREEZE ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      25 - 31
Hartwell Min                30 
Durations at/below 32:     2 -  9
Durations at/below 28:     0 -  5
Range Dewpoint Temps:     10 - 24
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     28 - 33
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW  4     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   42 - 48   32 - 38   32 - 38   43 - 50   41 - 47   36 - 42
--------

West Central Georgia                    
NWS Fcst Zones 41-43, 52-57, 66-70, 78-80, 89-93  

**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS  ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      31 - 36
La_Grange Min               33 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  3
Range Dewpoint Temps:     14 - 31
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     32 - 36
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:   V  1     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   46 - 51   38 - 45   37 - 43   48 - 53   46 - 54   42 - 50
--------

Central Georgia                         
NWS Fcst Zones 46,48-51,58-61,71-74,81-85,94-98,10

**** FREEZING TEMPERATURES ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      27 - 34
Byron Min                   33 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  6
Durations at/below 28:     0 -  1
Range Dewpoint Temps:     10 - 29
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     30 - 35
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NW  3     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   43 - 50   39 - 46   36 - 43   46 - 52   48 - 55   40 - 47
--------

East Central Georgia                    
NWS Fcst Zones 62-65, 75-77, 86-88, 99-101        

**** FREEZING TEMPERATURES ****
****    PATCHY FROST  ****

Lowest Temperatures:      27 - 34
Waynesboro Min              28 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  6
Durations at/below 28:     0 -  1
Range Dewpoint Temps:     13 - 29
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     29 - 35
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:   V  2     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   43 - 50   38 - 46   35 - 44   45 - 52   49 - 56   37 - 49
--------

Southwest Georgia                       
NWS Fcst Zones 102-104, 120-126, 142-145, 155-158 

**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS  ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      32 - 36
Bainbridge Min              35 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  0
Range Dewpoint Temps:     14 - 35
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     33 - 39
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:   V  1     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   44 - 49   43 - 48   41 - 46   49 - 53   52 - 56   48 - 53
--------

South Central Georgia                   
NWS Zones 105-106,108,110,127-133,146-149,159-163 

**** FREEZING TEMPERATURES ****
****  WIDESPREAD FROST   ****

Lowest Temperatures:      30 - 34
Tifton Min                  34 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  2
Range Dewpoint Temps:     21 - 32
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     31 - 37
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:   V  0     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   42 - 46   43 - 47   41 - 45   47 - 51   52 - 56   48 - 54
--------

Southeast Georgia                       
NWS Fcst Zones 113-119, 134-141, 150-154, 164-166 

**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS  ****
****  WIDESPREAD FROST   ****

Lowest Temperatures:      28 - 38
Jesup_AG Min                30 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  5
Durations at/below 28:     0 -  0
Range Dewpoint Temps:     18 - 33
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     31 - 39
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:   V  1     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  03/18/17  03/19/17  03/20/17  03/21/17  03/22/17  03/23/17
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   40 - 49   43 - 52   41 - 50   46 - 55   51 - 59   46 - 57
--------

For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2017 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved. 

KY KY Temp Outlook

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS

Bowling_Green Covington Danville-Powell_ Fort_Campbell
Fort_Knox/Godma Frankfort_AP Glasgow_KY Henderson_City
Jackson_KY Lexington_KY London_Corbin Louisville_AP
Louisville/Bowm Middlesboro_AP Monticello_KY_AP Murray_AP
Owensboro_AP Paducah Richmond_Madison Somerset(AWOS)

3. Grower Reports from the “bitter cold” Battle Lines! (reporting throughout the day)

Whitakers, NC (late Wed)…grower who did drip and not overhead night before/last night – irrig on covers

I went home and crashed at 10:30 this morning to prepare for another night. It looks like running the drip need a decent job last night. I checked 3 places and saw a few lost blooms but overall I saw way more good blooms than bad. The tight buds and crown still look very good.

As far as tonight goes – we plan to run overhead. I think last night running overhead would have been a mistake because of the winds this morning and the extreme cold today. I think we saved more by not running and using the drip. But the real truth won’t be known until we can remove all the covers and look at the whole field.

With row covers – what time to predict me having to turn on? I am thinking around 9 p.m.

Clayton Central Crops -seeing an air temp this morning at weather shelter (2m) of 26.2 F at 6 a.m., and Skybit forecast last evening was 23 air and 21 canopy (they were low on air temp at weather shelter height). What is interesting is SkyBit morning forecast says weather shelter at Clayton is 24  min and 18 in canopy! Dewpoints are very low this morning! Growers who are running water need to use care with shutdown times – be sure to note when wet bulb reaches 32-33 before shutting down!