Multi-State Frost Update on Thursday…be on Guard for Black Frost Tonight (5pm, 3/23/17)
go.ncsu.edu/readext?456138
Good (late) afternoon,
It was just a “pinch” colder in some regions last night than I think any of us anticipated. Just east of where I live in Williamsburg, VA, some growers were still running their sprinklers at 11 a.m. this morning. Wet bulb temperatures did not rise to 32 F until about 11 a.m. in areas like Chesapeake. Growers who were sprinkling and had digital thermometers noted blossom readings of 48.3 F at 10:30 a.m. It was actually ok to shutdown when the digital thermometer blossom temperature reads 32-33 F.
When I spoke with a strawberry grower near Durham, NC, I learned it never got quite as cold as they were expecting this morning. Every area is different! And, things can, and often do play out differently.
The AWIS hourly information below can give you some general guidance of what to expect tomorrow morning. AWIS provides information on the hours during the night and morning when you might see frost in your area, but please don’t believe for one second that AWIS, or any weather service can reliably forecast the exact time when you might see frost.
MD – MD Temp Outlook
If we look at Salisbury once again Salisbury, it looks like a minimum of 25 tomorrow morning frost possibility around 6 a.m., winds are calm, clear skies and dew points in high teens and low 20s, so this is technically a ‘black frost’ situation and you will not want to rely on seeing “ice crystals” as your cue to start sprinkling (if that is what you are doing). In fact, the wet bulb is at 32 at this hour of 5 p.m. (1700). Of course, if you have your digital thermometer unit to go by, then by all means use that instrument to guide you on appropriate turn on time for sprinkling. A single row cover of 1 ounce would be my choice! And, with a minimum of 25, that should work well. Good luck!
10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS
VA
Not quite so cold tonight in areas like Ashland (north of Richmond), but it got seriously cold there this morning (air temp min of 24). Ashland
Tonight, Ashland is looking at a minimum of 31 F, and AWIS is showing frost potential at 5 a.m. Dew points are just low enough (20-23F), that it is going to be harder to make “white frost” and growers who are using sprinkling better be monitoring blossom temps closely. It looks like the wet bulb drops to 32 at 8 p.m. (20).
Just for interest, I am now looking at a Skybit that just came in this evening for a location west of Richmond (Moseley), and it looks like a minimum in the canopy of 28 is a possibility there with air temp at weather shelter of 30 F (2 degree differential). This area will also see wet bulbs of 32 around 6:30-7 p.m. (just an hour or so from now). In looking at nearby FARMVILLE on AWIS, I see that AWIS is forecasting no frost tomorrow morning and a minimum of 33 F. Hopefully, that will be the case! Even so, I would have a row cover on top of the crop as insurance. Farmville
If we head over into eastern VA, and look at Chesapeake for a moment, it is clear they are setting up for a classical white frost tonight and it might occur as early as midnight. Dew points are much higher, and it will be very easy to “make frost” at the strawberry canopy level, and that frost formation can do a lot of damage to a freshly opened blossom. Start sprinkling at first sign of ice crystals forming at ground level. Chesapeake – white frost
At 4 p.m. today I received this note from Tom Baker:
Barclay,
It’s hard to imagine how excited I am that we need to do NOTHING in prep for tonight!
Our AWIS lows are Chesapeake 30, Fentress 31, Oceana 31; AccuWeather lows are Chesapeake 30, Virginia Beach 32; Weather Channel lows are Chesapeake 32, Virginia Beach 33. Strangely, AWIS shows Dew Point about 6 degrees higher at Chesapeake than Fentress or Oceana and is showing frost for that location, only. AccuWeather shows Chesapeake DP only 3 degrees higher.
Our row covers are in place from last night so all we need to do this late afternoon is quickly walk the fields for “flipped” rock bags. That’s it!
Is this a “bad dream,” where I dream we’re going to be “safe,” then wake up to learn all the forecasts were wrong???
It’s been a tough 10 days or so! My head is having trouble getting around doing nothing for tonight!
Regards,
Tom
Brookdale Farm
Tom, Anne, and Amanda Baker
2060 Vaughan Rd., Virginia Beach, VA 23457
2133 Mt. Pleasant Rd., Chesapeake, VA
Reply – I think you have it covered!!
10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS
NC
Taking a look at my old stomping ground, Raleigh, Raleigh DurhamI see this area may also expect a pre-dawn frost event, except it doesn’t look like there will be much frost! Dew points are in low 20s, and with a minimum of 31 F at weather shelter, it may be one of those deals (as people from NJ sometimes say), where the only frost you will see will be on hood of pickup tomorrow morning. Let’s look at the Skybit that just came in at 5:15 p.m. for Clayton. What is says is that the minimum in the canopy for Clayton (about 20 miles SE of Raleigh) will only be 31, and weather shelter minimum of 34. Skybit was right on it this morning for Clayton! This is a pretty safe situation. Strawberry blossoms can handle a temperature of 28 F in absence of ice crystals, and with the low dewpoints in this general area, and canopy temp of 31 F, things are looking “relatively safe.” Still, I would have a row cover on the crop to be “extra safe.”
Rocky Mount Wilson is in that pinkish band on map below that shows minimums for tomorrow morning, and this area is looking very frosty! Dew points are definitely high enough (26-31) for a good frost, and air temp at weather shelter height is 29. AWIS is saying frost could start as soon as midnight. Rocky Mount Wilson It is going to be another long night for the guys and gals growing strawberries over in that part of NC tonight!
There is also excellent white frost potential over in Kenansville tonight Kenansville white frost
I hope all the growers in that general area have already applied row covers this afternoon, or will be planning to run sprinklers at first sight of frost in the vicinity of the strawberry canopy. Seeing ice crystals will be a very good “cue” for when to start sprinkling. Dewpoints are relatively high (28-31), skies are clear, no winds, and with minimum temp at weather shelter of 31, I would hazard to say there could be a big frost in this area tomorrow morning!
AWIS Weather Services, Inc. North Carolina Frost/Freeze Forecast
Produced at 305 p.m. CDT on Thu Mar 23 2017
... Forecast for Tonight ... Northeast NC Coast
Currituck/Camden/Pasquotank/Tyrrell Counties
**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS ****
**** LITTLE/NO FROST DUE TO DRY AIR ****
Lowest Temperatures: 32 - 39
Elizabeth_City Min 32
Durations at/below 32: 0 - 1
Range Dewpoint Temps: 16 - 35
Range Wetbulb Temps: 30 - 37
AVG Wind Direction/Speed: NE 6 Long Periods of Calm
AVG Sky Condition: Clear
Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)
03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
48 - 54 51 - 57 54 - 61 56 - 62 52 - 58 44 - 51
--------
East Central/SE NC Coast
Carteret/Pamlico Counties
**** NEAR FREEZING COLD LOCATIONS ****
**** WIDESPREAD FROST ****
Lowest Temperatures: 33 - 38
Morehead_City Min 37
Range Dewpoint Temps: 23 - 34
Range Wetbulb Temps: 33 - 37
AVG Wind Direction/Speed: NE 5 Long Periods of Calm
AVG Sky Condition: Clear
Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)
03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
50 - 52 52 - 55 55 - 57 57 - 60 55 - 57 48 - 52
--------
Southeast NC
NWS FORECAST ZONES 87-90,96-101
**** NEAR FREEZING COLD LOCATIONS ****
**** SCATTERED FROST PROTECTED AREAS ****
Lowest Temperatures: 34 - 39
Elizabethtown Min 36
Range Dewpoint Temps: 20 - 37
Range Wetbulb Temps: 33 - 40
AVG Wind Direction/Speed: E 5 Periods of Calm
AVG Sky Condition: Clear
Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)
03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
48 - 51 51 - 56 55 - 59 56 - 59 51 - 59 46 - 56
--------
North-Central NC
Franklin County Area
**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS ****
**** PATCHY FROST ****
Lowest Temperatures: 28 - 37
Louisburg Min 30
Durations at/below 32: 0 - 5
Durations at/below 28: 0 - 1
Range Dewpoint Temps: 15 - 25
Range Wetbulb Temps: 28 - 35
AVG Wind Direction/Speed: SE 4 Long Periods of Calm
AVG Sky Condition: Clear
Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)
03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
44 - 51 50 - 57 52 - 58 52 - 59 48 - 55 42 - 48
--------
North/Central NC
Alamance County Area
**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS ****
** PATCHY FROST PROTECTED AREAS **
Lowest Temperatures: 31 - 37
Graham_AG Min 35
Durations at/below 32: 0 - 2
Range Dewpoint Temps: 17 - 24
Range Wetbulb Temps: 28 - 36
AVG Wind Direction/Speed: SE 5 Long Periods of Calm
AVG Sky Condition: Clear
Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)
03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
46 - 50 52 - 57 53 - 58 54 - 60 49 - 54 43 - 48
--------
South/Central NC
Richmond County Area
**** NEAR FREEZING COLD LOCATIONS ****
**** FROST LIKELY ****
Lowest Temperatures: 33 - 39
Ellerbe Min 36
Range Dewpoint Temps: 20 - 32
Range Wetbulb Temps: 33 - 38
AVG Wind Direction/Speed: E 5 Long Periods of Calm
AVG Sky Condition: Clear
Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)
03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
48 - 51 52 - 56 55 - 57 55 - 58 49 - 56 46 - 51
--------
Interior/EC-SE NC
Wayne County Area
**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS ****
**** WIDESPREAD FROST ****
Lowest Temperatures: 32 - 35
Goldsboro_AG Min 35
Durations at/below 32: 0 - 1
Range Dewpoint Temps: 21 - 35
Range Wetbulb Temps: 35 - 37
AVG Wind Direction/Speed: E 3 Long Periods of Calm
AVG Sky Condition: Clear
Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)
03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
47 - 50 50 - 53 53 - 57 55 - 59 52 - 55 47 - 50
--------
For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2017 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved.10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS
SC
10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS
GA
AWIS Weather Services, Inc. Georgia Frost/Freeze Forecast Produced at 305 p.m. CDT on Thu Mar 23 2017 ... Forecast for Tonight ... Northwest Georgia NWS Fcst Zones 1-5, 11-12, 19-20, 30-31 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 43 - 49 Rome_GA Min 49 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 50 - 55 52 - 57 51 - 56 52 - 56 49 - 54 47 - 52 -------- North Central Georgia NWS Fcst Zones 6-9, 13-16, 21-23, 25, 32-37, 44-45 **** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO CLOUDS **** Lowest Temperatures: 40 - 49 Dahlonega Min 44 Range Dewpoint Temps: 28 - 42 Range Wetbulb Temps: 41 - 47 AVG Wind Direction/Speed: E 7 AVG Sky Condition: Cloudy Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 46 - 55 50 - 59 48 - 58 48 - 58 46 - 56 44 - 54 -------- Northeast Georgia NWS Fcst Zones 10, 17-18, 24, 26-29, 38-40 **** LITTLE IF ANY FROST **** Lowest Temperatures: 37 - 43 Hartwell Min 42 Range Dewpoint Temps: 25 - 38 Range Wetbulb Temps: 40 - 43 AVG Wind Direction/Speed: E 6 Periods of Calm AVG Sky Condition: Mostly Cloudy Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 45 - 52 50 - 57 50 - 56 49 - 56 44 - 51 43 - 50 -------- West Central Georgia NWS Fcst Zones 41-43, 52-57, 66-70, 78-80, 89-93 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 46 - 53 La_Grange Min 48 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 52 - 57 54 - 59 54 - 59 53 - 58 51 - 57 50 - 55 -------- Central Georgia NWS Fcst Zones 46,48-51,58-61,71-74,81-85,94-98,10 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 43 - 50 Byron Min 48 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 50 - 56 53 - 59 53 - 59 53 - 60 52 - 58 51 - 57 -------- East Central Georgia NWS Fcst Zones 62-65, 75-77, 86-88, 99-101 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 42 - 51 Waynesboro Min 44 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 50 - 57 53 - 60 53 - 60 54 - 62 53 - 60 51 - 58 -------- Southwest Georgia NWS Fcst Zones 102-104, 120-126, 142-145, 155-158 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 50 - 55 Bainbridge Min 54 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 53 - 58 56 - 60 56 - 60 55 - 60 54 - 59 53 - 58 -------- South Central Georgia NWS Zones 105-106,108,110,127-133,146-149,159-163 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 50 - 54 Tifton Min 53 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 52 - 56 55 - 59 55 - 59 55 - 59 55 - 58 54 - 58 -------- Southeast Georgia NWS Fcst Zones 113-119, 134-141, 150-154, 164-166 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 48 - 57 Jesup_AG Min 50 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 51 - 60 54 - 61 54 - 61 54 - 61 53 - 61 53 - 61 -------- For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2017 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved.
10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS
KY
AWIS Weather Services, Inc. Western Kentucky Frost/Freeze Forecast Produced at 305 p.m. CDT on Thu Mar 23 2017 ... Forecast for Tonight ... Southwest Kentucky NWS Fcst Zones 1-13 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 54 - 58 Murray Min 56 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 58 - 60 51 - 55 52 - 55 52 - 53 46 - 48 47 - 50 -------- Grayson County Area NWS Fcst Zones 23-24,26-28,61-63 *** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight *** Lowest Temperatures: 48 - 54 Leitchfield Min 50 Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets) 03/25/17 03/26/17 03/27/17 03/28/17 03/29/17 03/30/17 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- 53 - 58 50 - 54 50 - 53 49 - 53 43 - 46 42 - 47 -------- For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2017 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved.
10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS