30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (6/21/16)
Fig. 1. What’s rarer than a blue moon? How about a strawberry moon to kick off the summer season this year. For the first time in nearly 50 years, there was a full moon last night during the summer solstice. A full moon in June was called a strawberry moon by native Americans. I did a little sky watching in Williamsburg last night, and I can assure that I did not see the “rose colored moon” shown in this above photo. Even so, it was pretty impressive!
In phone calls to a number of growers in recent days, I am definitely finding out from their answering machines that the strawberry season is OVER. However, it is interesting to note that a handful of growers are still harvesting berries in SC, NC and VA into this third week of June! It has been pretty exciting to see several varieties picking this late, including Camarosa (Fig. 2).
I was personally able to see plantings of Merced and San Andreas in the north central piedmont of NC, as well as central VA, that were still going strong late last week. It was also great fun to enjoy some delicious Ruby June berries over Father’s Day weekend from a farm in NC (Greensboro) and VA (Moseley). I took this shot of Ruby June in California last week (Moss Point, Watsonville). I could not resist taste testing one of the berries in this research plot (Fig. 3). It was really good, but not as flavorful as Ruby June on the east coast!
In a very recent Washington Post article, I commented on the importance of season length in California vs the Southeast: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/why-local-food-costs-more-a-strawberry-case-study/2016/06/20/c7177c56-331f-11e6-8ff7-7b6c1998b7a0_story.html
Weather Forecast: It looks to stay above normal for temps with near normal precipitation for next 30 days.
A. Forecast discussions day 3 – 14 (22 June – 03 July)
Forecast discussion day 3 – 5 (22 June – 24 June) Temperatures above normal entire period; with a slight chance of showers early and late, more widespread showers mid period. A weak high pressure system will move into the area at the start of the period, bringing with it above normal temperatures. By mid-period a low pressure system with warm front moves through the area increasing the threat of showers and warming temperatures. Expect high temperatures to range from the high 80s to low 90s early, low to mid 90s mid period, and mid to high 80s late. Low temperatures are also expected to be above normal ranging from the low to mid 70s through the entire period. Precipitation amounts will likely range from 0.20” – 0.40”.
Forecast discussion day 6 – 8: (25 June – 27 June) Temperatures slightly above normal early and mid-period, then more above normal late; with mostly dry conditions early and mid-period, then a chance showers late. Similar to the previous period, a weak high pressure system will be in the area for the early and mid-period, bringing in slightly above normal temperatures and little to no precipitation. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid to high 80s for the early and mid-period, then the high 80s to low 90s for the late period. Low temperatures are expected to be near normal for the early and mid-period, ranging from the low to mid 60s, then more above normal for the late period, ranging from the high 80s to low 90s. Precipitation amounts will likely range from 0.05” – 0.15”.
Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (28 Jun– 30 Jun) Temperatures slightly above normal; with scattered showers for entire period. As a slow moving cold front moves through the area, temperatures will drop from above normal to slightly above normal with scattered showers expected for most of the period, especially in the southern portions of the region. Expect high temperatures to range from the mid to high 80s for the entire period. Low temperatures will be above normal ranging from the high 60s to low 70s throughout the period. Precipitation amounts will likely range from 0.30” – 0.65”.
Forecast discussion day 12 – 14: (01 Jul – 03 Jul) Temperatures slightly above normal early, then near normal mid and late; with widespread showers early, scattered showers mid period, few showers for late. Another slow moving cold front will bring precipitation to the area as well as near normal temperatures. Expect high temperatures to range from the high 80s to low 90s early, then the mid to high 80s mid and late periods. Low temperatures will be above normal early and mid-period, ranging from the low to mid 70s, then dropping to slightly above normal late, ranging from the mid to high 60s. Precipitation amounts will likely range from 0.30” – 0.70” with high amounts possible.
B. Day 15 – 30 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks 4 Jul – 19 Jul
C. Day 15 – 30 Discussions
|Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (04 Jul – 11 Jul) Early indications are the temperature averages will be near normal with near normal precipitation.||Outlook discussion day 23 – 30: (12 Jul – 19 Jul) Early indications are the temperature averages will be near normal with near normal precipitation.|
D. Parting Shots from a Great 2016 Strawberry Season!