30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC (June 6, 2016)

— Written By Barclay Poling and last updated by
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Good afternoon!

Please find below the “30 Day Ag Weather Outlook for Maryland, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina and South Carolina. Sorry for the slight delay in getting this out (my internet “issues” are now resolved). As usual, this advisory is divided into 4 parts:

Part A. Forecast discussions (08 June – 19 June)

Part B. Day 15 – 30 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks 13 Jun– 28 Jun

Part C. Outlook Discussions day 15 – 30 (20 Jun – 28 Jun)

Part D. Yearly Climo Graphs with Sigma Values

I know some of you are still enjoying some picking, though the “heat” of this week could be a challenge! Several growers have reported to me that they are in their 9th week!

picking continues lower resPicking continues in Central Virginia (photo taken Friday, June 3rd)

Part A. Forecast discussions (08 June – 19 June)

image003Fig. 1. Surface Pressure, Precip and 1000 – 500 mb Thickness (Thur, 6/9)

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5  (08 June – 10 June) Temperatures  slightly below  normal early and mid-period, then warming to near above normal for late periods; mostly dry the entire period. A high pressure system will begin to move in from the west and stay in the area the entire period, bringing in relatively cool and dry air mass to the region. Expect high and low temperatures to be near normal, ranging from the mid to high 70s for highs, and the mid to high 50s for lows. No significant precipitation is expected during this period.

Table 1. Climatology for selected locations in MD, VA, and NC  (08 June – 10 June)

clime 1——————————————————————————————————-

image004Fig. 2. Surface Pressure, Precip and 1000 – 500 mb Thickness (Sun, 6/12)

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8: (11 June – 13 June) Temperatures above normal for entire period; with a slight chance of showers early, mostly dry mid, then a higher chance of showers late. Similar to the previous period, a high pressure system will be in the area, but the center high will move to the east allowing for southwest flow to bring warm and increasingly humid  air to the area for the early to mid-period. Expect high and low temperatures to be above normal ranging from the low to mid to upper 80s with a few 90s for highs and low temperatures from the low to mid 60s. Precipitation amounts will likely range from 0.10” – 0.30”.

Table 2. Climatology for selected locations in MD, VA, and NC  (11 June – 13 June)

clime 2——————————————————————————————————-

image011Fig. 3. Surface Pressure, Precip and 1000 – 500 mb Thickness (Wed, 6/15)

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (14 Jun– 16 Jun) Temperatures well above normal; with scattered showers for entire period. Expect that the a warm and humid  flow will continue from the southwest  as the previously mentioned high pressure slowly move east and a very weak cold front slow move into the region from the west. Expect above normal temperatures to continue ranging from low to upper 80s  with possible some soothed site reaching 90 . The low temperatures will also be well above normal ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s for the entire period. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the range of 0.10” – 0.35”.

Table 3. Climatology for selected locations in MD, VA, and NC  (14 Jun– 16 Jun)

clime3——————————————————————————————————-

image012Fig. 4. Surface Pressure, Precip and 1000 – 500 mb Thickness (Sat, 6/18)

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:    (17 Jun – 19 Jun) Temperatures above normal early and mid, near normal late; with a slight chance for a shower for early and mid, widespread showers for late. Expect the previously mentioned weak cold front to become stationary in the area causing scattered showers early to mid period. By late in the period expect a more vigorous cold front to move into the area with wind spread showers and thunderstorms some of which could be severe. Expect temperatures to remain above normal with high temperatures, ranging from the mid to high 80s most locations. Temperatures in the 90s are likely in the far southern locations. By the end of the period, temperatures will drop down to near normal temperatures ranging from high 70s to low 80s due to a passing cold front. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the range of 0.10” – 0.40”.

Table 4. Climatology for selected locations in MD, VA, and NC (17 Jun – 19 Jun)

clime4——————————————————————————————————–

Part B. Day 15 – 30 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks 13 Jun– 28 Jun

image001

image002

Part C. Outlook Discussions day 15 – 30 (20 Jun – 28 Jun)

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:     (20 Jun – 27 Jun) Early indications are the temperature averages will be above normal with near to slightly below normal precipitation. Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (21 Jun – 28 Jun) Early indications are the temperature averages will be above normal with near to slightly below normal precipitation.

Part D. Yearly Climo Graphs with Sigma Values

 

Station
Charlottesville VA Greensboro NC
Richmond VA Asheville, NC
Roanoke VA Charlotte, NC
Hillsville VA   Tab Fayetteville, NC
Salisbury, MD Aberdeen, MD

A little add-on to this weekly advisory – SkyBits from Clayton and Central Virginia – its going to be pretty hot everywhere!

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