30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC (Memorial Day, 5/30/16)

— Written By Barclay Poling and last updated by
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Greetings!

Please find below the 30 Day Ag Weather Outlook for Maryland, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina and South Carolina. Next weekend June 4-5, I will be acknowledging all of the sponsors of these Outlooks and the Strawberry Weather Advisory that have been coming to you since before Christmas Eve! 

dec 24 temp 77Fig. 1. Do you remember those 70’s and 80’s back in December? This photo of a realty sign was taken on 12/24/15, and the temperature was 77 F at 11:44 a.m. (Raleigh).

It now looks like  many of you will be harvesting berries right into the month of June! Two varieties that has been particularly impressive in recent weeks have been Merced and Ruby June (Figure 2). 

samplerFig. 2. Across the top row are (left to right):  San Andreas, Sweet Ann, Merced and Merced;  across the bottom row (left to right):  Camarosa, Ruby June and Ruby June. The berries were picked on Thursday (5/26) and held in the cooler until Saturday morning, when my wife and I picked them up in the Williamsburg Farm Market.

agriberryFig. 3. The Agriberry folks at the Williamsburg Farm Market, were kind enough to supply us with a Strawberry Variety Sampler. My wife, Lindy (left) , and I picked up this wonderful Strawberry Sampler flat at the Williamsburg Farm Market from Will Hodges (right), who runs the Agriberry farm stand at this market. Merced and the new variety from Lassen Canyon, Ruby June, both have outstanding appearance and flavor – just ask our new neighbors!

Please let me hear from you about your season:

I am particularly interested in hearing reports on newer varieties that you have been testing, and one Virginia grower asked me just this morning how Camarosa is performing down in the Carolinas, and he was wondering if it is coming into a second season? Since I am now up here in Virginia, it‘s a little harder for me to just drive down the road from North Raleigh to Clayton to find out!

This advisory is in four parts:

A. Forecast discussions (3 day periods) from 1 June – 12 June

B. Day 15 – 30 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks (13 Jun– 28 Jun)

C. Outlook discussions for 13 June – 28 June

D. Yearly Climo Graphs with Sigma Values

A. Forecast discussions (3 day periods) from 1 June – 12 June

image001Fig. 4 Surface Pressure, Precip and 1000 – 500 mb Thickness, Thu, 6/2

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5 (1 June – 3 June) Temperatures slightly above normal early, then above normal for mid and late periods; with showers the entire period. During this period, expect a weak low pressure system to slowly move into the area from the southeast bringing a general southeast flow. Slightly above normal high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s for the early period. Above normal temperatures of the mid to high 80s for the mid and late periods. Expect the overnight low temperatures to be above normal ranging from the low 60s for most of VA and MD to the upper 60s in NC and SC. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the range of 0.15” – 0.50”.

Clime 1Table 1. Climatology for locations in MD, VA and NC, 1 June – 3 June

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image002Fig. 5. Surface Pressure, Precip and 1000 – 500 mb Thickness, Sun, 6/5

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8: (4 June – 6 June) Temperatures slightly above normal for early, then more normal for mid to late; with a slight chance of showers early, then a high chance of showers mid to late period. Similar to the previous time period, a weak low pressure system will move into the area from the southwest, bringing with it warmer temperatures. Expect the high and low temperatures to be slightly above average ranging from mid to high 80s for the highs and high 60s to low 70s for the low temperatures early. The high temperatures are expected to become more normal for the mid to late periods while the low temperatures will remain well above normal in the mid to high 60s. Precipitation amounts will likely be in the range of 0.20″ – 0.50″ with higher amounts possible.

clime 2Table 2. Climatology for selected locations in MD, VA and NC, 4 June – 6 June

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image0003Fig. 6. Surface Pressure, Precip and 1000 – 500 mb Thickness,Wed, 6/8

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11:  (07 Jun– 09 Jun) Temperatures near normal; with wildly scattered showers for early and late periods, dry mid period.  Expect the previously mentioned low pressure system to be move to the northeast out to sea. The low will be followed by a high pressure system bring mostly clear skies and much of the period. Some widely scattered showers expected early period as some shower activity linger behind the low pressures system exciting northeast. By the end of the period the flow turns southwest bring in more humid air with few widely scatted showers possible late in the period. Near normal temperatures are expected for the time period with highs ranging for the mid 70s to low 80s and lows from the low to upper 50s. Precipitation amounts will likely be ranging from 0.10″ – 0.20″.

clime 3Table 3. Climatology for selected locations in MD, VA and NC, 07 Jun– 09 Jun

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image0004Fig. 7. Surface Pressure, Precip and 1000 – 500 mb Thickness, Sat, 6/11

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:   (10 Jun – 12 Jun) Temperatures near normal through the period; off and on showers all period.  With a southwest flow, expect the high temperatures to be near normal ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s for the early period and the low temperatures to be slightly above normal ranging from mid  50s to low 60s. A cold front is expected to move through at the beginning of the mid period, dropping high and low temperatures down to slightly above normal ranging from low to mid 80s for the highs and mid to high 60s for the lows. Precipitation ranging from 0.30″ – 0.65” with the best change of the higher precipitation amounts in NC and SC, for the mid-period.

Table 4. Climatology for selected locations in MD, VA and NC, 10 Jun – 12 Jun

clime 4—————————————————————————————————–

Part B. Day 15 – 30 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks (13 Jun– 28 Jun)

image008 image009

Part C. Outlook discussions for 13 June – 28 June

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22:    (13 Jun – 20 Jun) Early indications are the temperature averages will be above normal with near normal precipitation. Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (21 Jun – 28 Jun) Early indications are temperatures will be slightly above seasonal average with slightly below normal precipitation this period.

Part D. Yearly Climo Graphs with Sigma Values

Station Station
Charlottesville VA Greensboro NC
Richmond VA Asheville, NC
Roanoke VA Charlotte, NC
Hillsville VA   Tab Fayetteville, NC
Salisbury, MD Aberdeen, MD