30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD-VA-TN-NC-SC (12:30pm, Sun, 5/1/16)

— Written By Barclay Poling and last updated by
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Good afternoon,

There have been numerous reports of hail and rain damage in North Carolina from last Thursday night, and rains continue this Sunday! On some farms the hail was the size of golf balls! It is unclear at this time as to how much of the strawberry crop in North Carolina has been lost to recent rains and hail. But, issues with rain are not limited to NC growers, as I just got this note from a Maryland grower this morning:

“We opened this past Tuesday afternoon for public picking April 26. Since then we have had rain, drizzle, overcast, cold days. This morning its really raining and we are forecast for an inch today.”

Under these conditions, it will be very important to keep up with botrytis control programs. In some areas, anthracnose is being reported as well.

botrytis forecastWeather-based decision support system to optimize spray timing for Botrytis and Anthracnose fruit rots throughout North Carolina. Growers can upload NC map

You can find more complete information about this tool: https://strawberries.ces.ncsu.edu/strawberry-fruit-infection-risk-tool/

Still some chance of frost (in the western VA and NC regions)…

For the next week the  weather models are actually showing slightly cooler than normal temperatures with several periods of showers. We think the coolest period over the next month will be from Wed – Fri (4-6 May). There is the outside threat of a isolated frost during this period but this is a very, very low threat.

In just speaking with a Virginia grower near Richmond, I was reminded that during the first week of May, a frost is not that unusual.

I am also hearing reports of an exceptionally large crop of Camarosa from several sources in Tidewater region of NC and VA, one grower just wrote:

“Just wondering if everybody else is having such a large crop? We have good business but nothing could keep up with these Camarosa. We are trying to keep our head above water but I’ve never seen anything like it, anyway just wondering what you’re hearing out there.”

This advisory is divided into three parts:

Part 1. Forecast Discussion 4 May – 15 May

Part 2. Outlook Discussions for 16 May – 23 May, and 24 May – 31 May

Part 3. NOAA  Temperature and Precipitation Outlook 16 May– 31 May

Part 1. Forecast Discussion 4 May – 15 May

image001Fig. 1. Chart valid for Thur, 5/5/16

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5 (4 May – 6 May) Temperatures drop below normal; rain early, then showers mid – late in the period. Expect a complex low pressure system with one center that moves along the coast and another upper level cold low pressure system that will move from the eastern Great Lakes region to the Cape Hatteras region during the period. The combination of the two systems will cause the period to be on the wet side starting off as steady rain early in the period then becoming scattered showers the remainder of the period. The air mass behind the low is expected to be cool for the season and if skies clear at night possibly cool enough to bring the threat of temperatures below freezing to locations prone to late spring season frosts in the western VA and NC regions. However, the frost threat looks quite low as the period is expected to be mostly clouds which prevent significant nighttime radiational cooling. Expect highs to range from low 60s to low 70s and lows generally in the low 40s to upper 40s. Precipitation amounts expected to be in 0.30” – 0.50”range.

table 1Table 1. Climatology for 4 May – 6 May for selected locations in MD, VA, NC

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image002Fig. 2. Chart valid for Sun, 5/8/16

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8: (7 May – 9 May) Temperatures rise to near normal; mostly dry during the period. Expect the previously mentioned cold low pressure system to move offshore and allow a warm high to build in the southeast bringing warmer air, near normal for the season temperatures and mostly dry conditions to the region. Expect highs to range from low 70s to near 80 and lows in upper 40s to low 50s. Precipitation amounts expected to be in 0.00” – 0.05”range.

table 2Table 2. Climatology for 7 May – 9 May for selected locations in MD, VA, and NC

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image003Fig. 3. Chart valid for Wed, 5/11/16

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (10 May – 12 May) Temperatures stay near normal; light scattered showers entire period.  Expect a slow moving frontal system to move from west to east during the period. This will likely bring a prolonged period of light scattered rain showers lasting for the entire period. With the clouds and precipitation, expect highs to be a bit below normal, ranging from low 60s to upper 70s and lows a bit above normal in mid 50s to low 60s. Precipitation amounts expected to be in 0.20” – 0.35”range.

Table 3Table 3. Climatology for 10 May – 12 May for selected locations in MD, VA and NC

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image004Fig. 4. Chart valid for Fri, 5/13/16

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (13 May – 15 May) Temperatures continue near normal; still light scattered showers entire period.  Expect the previously mentioned slow moving frontal system to become stationary in the region. Expect the setup to continue the period of light scattered rain showers lasting for the entire period. Again, with the clouds and precipitation, expect highs to be a bit below normal, ranging from low 70s to upper 70s and lows a bit above normal in mid 50s to low 60s. Precipitation amounts expected to be in 0.15” – 0.30”range.

Table 4Table 4. Climatology for 13 May – 15 May for selected locations in MD, VA, and NC.

Part 2. Outlook Discussions for 16 May – 23 May, and 24 May – 31 May

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22(16 May– 23 May) Temperatures warm to slightly above normal with below average precipitation. Early indications are temperature average will be slightly above normal with slightly below normal precipitation. Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (24 May– 31 May) Temperatures slightly above normal with below average precipitation. Early indications are temperatures will be slightly above seasonal average with below normal precipitation this period.

Part 3. NOAA  Temperature and Precipitation Outlook 16 May– 31 May

image005Fig. 5. Temperature Outlook May 16-31

image006Fig. 6. Precipitation Outlook May 16-31

Yearly Climo Graphs with Sigma Values

Station Station
Charlottesville VA Greensboro NC
Richmond VA Asheville, NC
Roanoke VA Charlotte, NC
Hillsville VA   Tab Fayetteville, NC
Salisbury, MD Aberdeen, MD