30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC (2pm, Sun, 3/6/16)

— Written By Barclay Poling
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7daytemp.se.9Fig. 1a. Temperatures will be going way above normal this week! This is the maximum temperature map from AWIS for the Southeast on Thur, March 10.

7daytemp.at.9Fig. 1b. Maximum temps in VA and Mid-Atlantic on Thur, 3/10.

Good afternoon,

As Jay indicated in his Thursday weather update,  the major factors/signs/trends are now pointing to a warmer and wetter  than a normal March.   By mid week this week, temperatures will be going way above normal for several days.

7daytemp.nc.9Fig. 2. Maximum temperatures across NC on Thursday. Note the size of the region that will see upper 70s (red and light red). An interior coastal plain area will be in the 80s. There is also and excellent chance that canopy temperatures will be even higher!

7daytemp.ga.9Fig. 3. Maximum temperatures across GA on Thursday.

We are now even more confident that March will be above normal in temperatures and precipitation.

With the expected warm temperatures we need to be alert to the potential  of severe weather any time a cold front moves through the region.

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chart 1Fig. 4. Chart valid for Friday, 3/11

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5: (09 Mar – 11 Mar) Temperatures well above normal; mostly dry early, showers mid-late in the period. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal during this period as a large warm high pressure system slowly moves through the region from the west. This will allow the wind flow to be from the southwest warming temperatures to well above normal for an extended period. Expect showers mid to late in the period associated with a weak warm frontal boundary. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 F above normal with high temperatures ranging from the low 70s to near 80 and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.     Precipitation amounts expected to be in the 0.05” – 0.10” range. 

table 1Table 1. Climatology for selected cities in VA and NC, 09 Mar – 11 Mar Feb

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chart 2Fig. 5. Chart valid for Mon 3/14

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (12 Mar – 14 Mar) Temperatures stay above normal; potential for widespread heavy precipitation early to mid-period lingering showers slightly cooler late in the period.  Temperatures are expected to stay warm this period as wind remains from the southwest early in the period. There is the likely potential for a strong but warm low pressure system to move through the regions from the west. Slightly cooler as wind turn to the northwest with lingering showers likely late in the period as the low pressure system move northeast out to sea. Highs in the low 60s to upper-70s and lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Precipitation amounts expected to be in the 0.40” – 0.70”range. 

Table 2Table 2. Climatology for selected cities in VA and NC, 12 Mar – 14 Mar

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chart 3Fig. 6. Chart valid for Thu 3/17

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (15 Mar – 17 Mar) Temperatures stay above normal; potential for widespread heavy precipitation and severe weather mid to late in the period.  Temperatures are again expected to stay warm this period as wind remains from the southwest early in the period. By mid period the southwest flow is expected to intensify ahead of a powerful cold frontal system to the west. We need to keep in mind that that this is still early regarding the details of the forecast associated with the cold frontal passage. But at this point in time there looks to be a significant  potential for the strong cold front to produce severe weather as it moves through the region mid to late in the period. Highs in the low 60s to upper-70s and lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Precipitation amounts expected to be in the 0.30” – 050”range. 

Table 3Table 3. Climatology for selected cities in VA and NC, 15 Mar – 17 Mar

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chart 4Fig. 7. Chart valid for Sun 3/20

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (18 Mar – 20 Mar) Temperatures fall back to near normal; a mostly dry period.  Temperatures are expected fall behind the previously mentioned cold front to near normal during this period. Highs in the mid 50s to low-60s and lows in the low 30s to upper 30s. Precipitation amounts expected to be in the 0.005” – 0.10”range. 

Table 4Table 4. Climatology for selected cities in VA and NC, 18 Mar – 20 Mar

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Day 15 – 30 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:

image003Fig. 8. Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 22 Mar – 05 Apr

image004Fig. 9. Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook  22 Mar – 05 Apr

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (21 Mar – 28 Mar):  Temperatures near normal with above average precipitation. Early indications are temperatures will be above the seasonal average with above normal precipitation this period.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (29 Mar – 05 Apr) Temperatures near normal with near to above normal average precipitation. Early indications are temperatures will be near the seasonal average with near to above normal precipitation this period.