Some Question Today About Whether Conditions Are Favoring More Cold Outbreaks, or Not? (9:45am, 1/28/16)
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Dear Growers, Agents, Agronomists and Others
There is a split in the weather community today about what may be ahead for us in this region as far as cold outbreaks. I am including the rather technical discussion at bottom of the advisory. No matter, there are two indicators favoring cold outbreaks and two that would work against cold outbreaks from Canada into the Eastern US.
So, we need to be very cautious this early, but our best guess is that we will see significant cold events in the eastern US as we move into mid Feb, but the overall pattern doesn’t seem like it will support extended periods of abnormally cold in the eastern US.
But with this pattern, the eastern US will likely be active with storms and vulnerable for big snow events from any storm (low pressure system) that moves up from the south.
In support of the above scenario of a shift to colder weather in the eastern US after the early part of Feb, we note the CPC 6-10 Day Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ ) gives high probabilities for above normal temps in the eastern US and the 8-14 Day Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ shifts to a high probability of colder than normal temps in the eastern US .
Meanwhile, here is my morning SkyBit at Clayton and I wish to invite any and all growers interested in having a 3- month subscription to SkyBit to contact me IMMEDIATELY. I only have one week to submit names of growers who need this service in 2016. I have already sent in all the names of growers who had it last year (about 65 growers).
strawberrydoc@gmail as soon as possible.
These are the e-mails from today’s “discussion” on the impact of the SSW on the upcoming weather. Interesting exchanges that involved folks from NWS, the US University meteorology community and the European weather model center. You will see the conversations are highly technical with lots of disagreement in terms of how to interpret what is happening.
1. The SSW would favor the displacement of the PV, cross polar flow and ridging in Alaska. All of these factors favor a cold arctic outbreak(s) into the US in 2 – 4 weeks.
2. The AO looks to go negative. The AO is more of an indicator of colder than normal conditions in the Eastern US than a cause, but still highly correlated with cold that normal weather in the eastern US.
3. The El Nino pattern is still strong and its influence should weaken ridge formation in Alaska, so impact should be to lessen the intensity and duration of Arctic outbreaks.
4. The expected phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that can be characterized as an eastward moving ‘pulse’ of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. The expected phase of the MJO will promote convention and latent heating in locations that should also weaken ridge formation in Alaska and lessen the intensity and duration of Arctic outbreaks.