30 Day Ag Weather Outlook MD – VA – TN- NC – SC (1:45pm, Mon., 1/25/16)

— Written By

Dear Growers, Agents, Agronomists & Others,

The next 30 days look to be an active weather period with low pressure and cold front systems moving through the area every 3 – 5 days. As the weather systems move through the region they will produce periods of precipitation, so expect overall above average precipitation amounts.

The current forecast is for the next significant low to form in the Arkansas area and track to the northeast up the Ohio Valley and finally move off the southern New England coast. If this track holds, the precipitation will primarily fall as rain in the region. However, there has been a tendency for the systems to track further south and east than the models initially depict, which would mean some areas could get snow. As with all situations of this type, this forecast period bears close watching.

The systems moving through the region will also cause swings in temperatures from above normal for a day or so ahead of a cold front to below normal for a few days after the front passes through the region. At this time, the temperature swings are not expected to be extreme.  Overall, expect the temperatures over the next 30 days to average near to slightly below normal, but do not expect temperatures to be anywhere near as cold as they were last February. Locations that have deep snow cover will tend to stay a few degrees colder than typical under the same general weather conditions until the snow melts.

chart 1Fig. 1. Valid for Thu 1/28

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5: (27 Jan – 29 Jan) Temperatures near normal, then drop to slightly below normal; periods of light rain/snow showers.  The low temperature start off to start the period of slightly above normal temperatures  ahead of low pressure and accompanying cold front  that will move through the area bringing a threat for rain in the lower elevations and snow showers in the higher elevations early in the period. A relatively cold air mass is expected to move in behind the low and front, so temperatures drop to slightly below normal by the afternoon of the first day of the period with the remainder of the period with temperatures dropping to 2-5 F below normal. Early in the period, high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 30s to upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s to near 40. High temperatures by the end of the period expected to range from the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the low 20s to mid 30s. Precipitation amounts are expected to be in the 0. 10” – 0.20” range.

chart 2Fig. 2. Valid for Sun 1/31/16

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8: (30 Jan – 01 Feb) Temperatures start cool, then warm to above normal; periods of rain showers.  Temperatures are expected to start on the cool side then warm during this period to above normal as southerly flow develops ahead of a low that moves into the Great Lakes Region. Periods of light rain showers are expected as a cold front moves into the region. Early in the period, high temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the low 20s to mid 30s. Late in the period, high temperatures are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s and lows in the low 30s to low 40s. Precipitation amounts expected to be in the 0.10” – 0.20” range.

chart 3Fig. 3. Valid for Wed 2/3/16

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (02 Feb – 04 Feb) Temperatures start slightly below normal then warm to above normal; steady rain mid period.Temperatures are expected to start on the cool side but warm during this period ahead of a low pressure system and cold front. The current forecast is for the low to form in Arkansas and track to the northeast in the Ohio Valley and finally move off the southern New England coast. If this track holds, the precipitation will primarily fall as rain in the regions. However, there has been a tendency for the systems to track further south and east than the models initially depict, which would mean snow. As with all situations of this type, this forecast period bears close watching.   Early in the period, high temperatures are expected to range from the low 40s to low 50s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Late in the period, high temperatures are expected to range from the mid 40s to near 60 and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s Precipitation amounts expected to be in the 0.50” – 1.00” range.

chart 4Fig. 4. Valid for Sat 2/6/16

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14: (05 Feb – 07 Feb) Temperatures drop to below normal; periods of rain/snow.  Temperatures are expected to cool early in the period as a cold front sweeps through the region. Expect periods of light snow with rain in the southern half and along the coast late in the period ahead of a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region. Slight warming expected by late in the period. Early in the period, high temperatures are expected to range from the low 40s to low 50s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.  Late in the period, high temperatures are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid  50s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.    Precipitation amounts expected to be in the 0.05” – 0.15” range.

Day 15 – 30 Temperature Outlook 1 Feb – 16 Feb:

chart 5

Day 15 – 30 Precipitation Outlook 1 Feb – 16 Feb:

chart 6

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (8 Feb – 15 Feb): Expect temperatures to be slightly below average with above average precipitation. Early indications are this period will see temperatures slightly above average to start the period, then fall to below average for the season. Expect an active storm track in the eastern US with periods of widespread precipitation.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30: (16 Feb – 23 Feb): Expect Temperatures average to near or slightly below average with above average precipitation. Early indications are this period will see temperatures drop back to near or slightly below the seasonal average with periods of widespread precipitation continuing.

Written By

Photo of Dr. Barclay PolingDr. Barclay PolingFormer Professor and Extension Specialist, Strawberries and Muscadines (919) 515-5373 (Office) barclay_poling@ncsu.eduHorticultural Science - NC State University
Updated on Jan 25, 2016
Was the information on this page helpful? Yes check No close
This page can also be accessed from: go.ncsu.edu/readext?392093