30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (9:30am, Mon., 5/4/15)

— Written By Barclay Poling

We expect the next couple of weeks to be warm with above normal temperatures for the region. There will be a warm and humid southwest wind flow with temperatures above normal for Mother’s Day Weekend (Mother’s Day, Sunday, May 10).

Period 1 (May 6-May 8)

image001Chart 1. Valid through May 7 (Thur)

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5:  (06 May – 08 May) Temperatures stay above normal; mostly dry during period.  During this period a very large and slow moving low pressure system is expected to develop on the east side of the Rocky Mountains. This will allow a warm and relatively humid air mass to move into the eastern US under a general southwest wind flow.  High temperatures are expected to range from the high 70s to mid 80s Low temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 50s.   Total precipitation amounts in the 0.00” – 0.05” range.

Table 1. Climatology for May 6-8 in VA-TN-NC-SC

clime 1

Period 2 (May 9-12)

image002Chart 2. Valid through May 10 (Mother’s Day)

Forecast discussion day 6-8:  (09 May – 12 May) Temperatures above normal; showers late in the period. The low pressure system to the west will slowly move east.  This will keep the region under warn and humid southwest wind flow with temperatures above normal. Periods of scattered light showers are possible late in period as the low approaches the region. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 70s to upper 80s.  Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.  Precipitation amounts expected to be light in the 0. 05” – 0.15” range.

Table 2. Climatology for May 9-12 in VA-TN-NC-SC

clime 2

Period 3 (May 13-May 15)

image003Chart 3. Valid through May 13 (Wed)

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (13 May – 15 May) Temperatures stay above normal; turns wet.  The warm air mas continues to dominate the region early in the period.  A cold front is expected to approach the region by mid period bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Late in the period temperatures cool to near normal.  High temperatures are expected to range from the high 70s to mid 80searly dropping to the low to mid 70s by late in the period.  Low temperatures expected to be in the 60s early and low 50s late in the period. Total precipitation amounts in the 0.30” – 0.50” range.

Table 3. Climatology for May 13-15 in VA-TN-NC-SC

clime 3

Period 4 (May 16-18)

image004Chart 4. Valid through May 18 (Mon)

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (16 May – 18 May) Temperatures near normal; widely scattered showers mid to late in the period.  Temperatures remain near normal as a high pressure system slowing moves through the region from northwest to southeast. Periods of widely scattered light showers are possible from mid to late in period as the high moves offshore allowing warmer and more humid air return to the regions.  High temperatures are expected to range from the mid to upper 70s.  Lows in the low to mid 50s. Precipitation amounts expected to be light in the 0. 05” – 0.10” range.

Table 4. Climatology for May 16-18 in VA-TN-NC-SC

clime 4

Outlook discussions (May 19-Jun 2)

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22 (19 May- 26 May): Temperatures above normal and wet.   Expect this period to see above normal temperatures with periods of wide spread showers.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (27 May – 02 Jun): Above average temperatures. Early indications are this period will see above average temperatures for the season.

Have a great week!

Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Professor Emeritus (Strawberry Plasticulture Researcher)
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609
“An idealist believes the short run does not count. A cynic believes the long run does not matter. A realist believes that what is done or left undone in the short run determines the long run.”

Sidney J. Harris, In: Reclaiming a Lost Heritage – Land-Grant & Other Higher Education Initiatives for the Twenty-first Century