No Frost in Forecast! Mulit-State Update on Strawberry Weather This Week (3:12pm, Sun., 4/12/15)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Good afternoon,

I just spoke with a grower in Central VA who did have some very light frost this Sunday morning. The purpose of this advisory is review the potential for any frost issues in the week ahead for NC, SC, VA, TN, KY and MD. In general, we are enjoying some delightful weather this weekend in the Carolinas. In eastern NC, I am already receiving photos of red-ripe berries! This first shot is of Albion in Burgaw, NC (sent Friday). You can see a close-up of Albion in the second photo (Fig. 2). The third photo was sent by Lee Berry in Ellerbe (Sandhills). Ron Cottle in Faison, NC, anticipates getting underway this week with harvest.

But, the crop is definitely running behind in most areas. In Easley, SC, Eric Hunter is hoping to be opening up around April 25th. Tom Baker, Pungo, VA, is anticipating some Camarosa by May 2-3. Let me know how the crop is progressing in your area.

I know there are no warnings of FROST anywhere in the six state region that I monitor for the week ahead, but we also know that  weather systems and forecasts do “turn on a dime.” Later this evening (or, first thing Monday morning) I will post the weekly OUTLOOK to see what the next two weeks look like for the 4 state area VA-TN-NC-SC.

david Rowe Burgaw albionFig. 1. Photo of a beautiful 6 dry quart Albion flat taken on Friday, April 10 (David Rowe, Burgaw). Albion is proving to be quite early!

albion closeFig. 2. Albion close-up. This particular grower opened up last week in Burgaw (near Wilmington, NC).

lee berry open on Sat April 113. Excellent looking fruit load! Photo sent by Lee Berry, Ellerbe, Sat. 4/11. He has also started to pick a few berries this weekend.

1. North Carolina – weather outlook

No frost in the forecast this week (thank goodness!).
These are the latest updates from AWIS for the week, including their Frost/Freeze forecast for NC — showing no frost!

1a. NC – AWIS 7-day maximum minimum temperature forecast:  AWIS NC Apr 12-19

1b. NC Frost/Freeze Forecast:

AWIS Weather Services, Inc. North Carolina Frost/Freeze Forecast
Produced at  505 a.m. CDT on Sun Apr 12 2015

... Forecast for Tonight ... Northeast NC Coast                      
Currituck/Camden/Pasquotank/Tyrrell Counties      

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      44 - 53
Elizabeth_City Min          44 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   57 - 64   53 - 59   47 - 54   53 - 60   56 - 63   52 - 59
--------

East Central/SE NC Coast                
Carteret/Pamlico Counties                         

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      51 - 53
Morehead_City Min           53 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   61 - 64   60 - 61   52 - 53   58 - 59   62 - 63   54 - 56
--------

Southeast NC                            
NWS FORECAST ZONES 87-90,96-101                   

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      50 - 54
Elizabethtown Min           52 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   60 - 65   56 - 63   47 - 55   54 - 60   57 - 64   52 - 56
--------

North-Central NC                        
Franklin County Area                              

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      47 - 54
Louisburg Min               47 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   56 - 63   47 - 56   43 - 50   47 - 55   50 - 59   47 - 54
--------

North/Central NC                        
Alamance County Area                              

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      49 - 54
Graham_AG Min               52 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   56 - 62   49 - 53   45 - 50   48 - 54   51 - 56   49 - 53
--------

South/Central NC                        
Richmond County Area                              

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      50 - 56
Ellerbe Min                 52 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   59 - 62   54 - 59   47 - 50   48 - 56   54 - 60   52 - 55
--------

Interior/EC-SE NC                       
Wayne County Area                                 

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      48 - 52
Goldsboro_AG Min            51 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   58 - 63   55 - 58   48 - 52   53 - 56   58 - 61   51 - 54
--------

For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2015 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved.

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

2. South Carolina – weather outlook

No frost in the forecast this week!

2a. SC – AWIS 7-day maximum minimum temperature forecast: AWIS SC Apr 12-19

Eric Hunter, Easley, informed me yesterday that he hopes to be picking by end of the month. He pointed out that it might be a very concentrated crop this season!

Last week we learned from Powell Smith (Tue., April 7)…it would be good to hear from Andy in upstate! This was Powell’s report:

“Many coastal locations have started picking the last week of March, and I know of at least one grower who opened  17 Mar. Many locations in the Midlands opened this week. The crop looks good, but a problem that I have seen across the state is that the crowns even on bare root plants are very close to the same age and all will produce berries in during a very short window. I will let Andy chime in on the upstate season. The plug plants are even worse in this respect.”

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Aiken_AP Anderson_Co_Air Barnwell_AP Beaufort_Cnty_AP
Beaufort_SC Bennettsville_Je Camden_AP Charleston_Exec_
Charleston_Muni Cheraw_AP Chester_AP Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Conway_AP
Darlington Florence_SC Georgetown_AP_SC Greenville_Donal
Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green Hartsville_AP
Hilton_Head_AP Kingstree_AP Lancaster-McWhir Laurens_AP
Manning_AP Marion_AP_SC Moncks_Corner_AP Mount_Pleasant_A
Myrtle_Beach Newberry_AP North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Pickens_AP Rock_Hill Spartanburg_Down Summerville_AP
Sumter_AP Sumter_SC Walterboro_AP Winnsboro_AP

3. Virginia – weather outlook

3a. VA – AWIS 7-day maximum minimum temperature forecast: AWIS VA Apr 12-19

3b. Patchy frost was reported in Richmond area this morning. From Chesapeake, and Pungo area has this report today:

AWIS site:            yesterday’s forecast        today’s forecast
Chesapeake        40 Dew                               45 Dew                5 degree improvement
Fentress               37 Frost                              45 Dew                8 degree improvement J
Oceana                41 Dew                               48 Dew                7 degree improvement

AccuW:                yesterday a.m. this a.m.
Chesapeake        45                                         49
Virginia Beach    46                                         49

SkyBit, yesterday:             40 canopy           45 outside field
Today:                  39 canopy           47 outside field

NWS says lows tonight in mid-40s, both locations.

What was AWIS thinking yesterday??? (April Fool’s Day was over a week ago!)

I don’t know what you said to the AWIS folks but it worked!

“That’s the way I like it, uh huh, uh huh!”

We’re now hoping for our first Camarosa picking May 2 or 3, though that might be too optimistic considering Cams need to be “RIPER” to be ready???

I think our Chandlers, even those with row covers on from January 6 to March 8, will be a week later.

Tom & Anne Baker and Amanda McCann
Brookdale Farm
2060 Vaughan Rd, Virginia Beach, VA  23457
 
10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Abingdon Ashland_VA Charlottesville Chesapeake-Ches
Culpeper Danville Dublin/New_Riv Emporia_VA
Farmville Fentress_Naval_A Fort_Belvoir/Da Fort_Eustis/Fel
Franklin/J_B_Ro Hillsville Hot_Springs/Ing Jonesville_AP
Langley_AFB Leesburg/Godfre Louisa-Louisa_C Lynchburg
Manassas_Muni(A Marion/Wythev Martinsville Mecklenburg/Bru
Melfa/Accomack Newport_News Norfolk_Hampton_ Norfolk_NAS
Norfolk_VA Oceana Orange_VA Petersburg_(AWO
Quantico Richlands_AP Richlands_VA Richmond
Richmond_Chester Roanoke Shannon_Arpt Stafford_AP_VA
Staunton-Shenan Suffolk-Suffolk Tappahannock_AP Virginia_Tech_A
Wakefield_AP Wallops_Island Warrenton_Fauqui Washington_Dulle
West_Point_VA Williamsburg_VA Winchester_Rgnl Wise/Lonesome_P

 

4. Tennessee – weather outlook

4a. TN – AWIS 7-day maximum minimum temperature forecast: AWIS TN Apr 12-19

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Chattanooga/Lov Clarksville_TN Crossville_AP Dyersburg
Elizabethton_AP Jackson_TN Knoxville_AP Memphis_AP
Millington Nashville_Metro Oak_Ridge_TN Smyrna
Tri-City_RGNL_AP

5. Kentucky – weather outlook

5a. KY – AWIS 7-day maximum minimum temperature forecast: AWIS KY Apr 12-19

AWIS Weather Services, Inc. Western Kentucky Frost/Freeze Forecast
Produced at  504 a.m. CDT on Sun Apr 12 2015

... Forecast for Tonight ... Southwest Kentucky                      
NWS Fcst Zones 1-13                               

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      58 - 60
Murray Min                  60 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   53 - 57   52 - 55   59 - 61   57 - 59   55 - 58   55 - 57
--------

Grayson County Area                     
NWS Fcst Zones 23-24,26-28,61-63                  

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      55 - 58
Leitchfield Min             56 

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/14/15  04/15/15  04/16/15  04/17/15  04/18/15  04/19/15
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   52 - 55   50 - 52   53 - 59   53 - 57   52 - 54   52 - 54
--------

For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2015 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved. 

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Bowling_Green Covington Danville-Powell_ Fort_Campbell
Fort_Knox/Godma Frankfort_AP Glasgow_KY Henderson_City
Jackson_KY Lexington_KY London_Corbin Louisville_AP
Louisville/Bowm Middlesboro_AP Monticello_KY_AP Murray_AP
Owensboro_AP Paducah Richmond_Madison Somerset(AWOS)


6. Maryland – weather outlook

6a. MD – AWIS 7-day maximum minimum temperature forecast: AWIS MD Apr 12-19

10-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Aberdeen Andrews_AFB Annapolis_Naval Baltimore_Sci_Ce
Baltimore/Wash Cambridge/Dorche College_Park_AP Cumberland_AP
Easton_MD Fort_Meade Frederick_MD Gaithersburg_AP
Hagerstown_AP Leonardtown Middle_River Oakland_MD_AP
Ocean_City_AP Patuxent_River Salisbury Stevensville_AP
St_Inigoes/Webst Washington_DC_AP Westminster_AP

Editor’s note:  I would appreciate feedback from Bob R. and MD folks on whether they saw any frost this morning? Even Salisbury area was suppose to have frost this morning, according to last evening’s AWIS forecast? I don’t see any forecast for frost in week ahead.

Tomorrow morning (or maybe even tonight), I will have the Outlook ready:

30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA  TN- NC – SC

Barclay

p.s. thanks to all everyone who contributed to this report today!

Dr. E. Barclay Poling

Professor Emeritus (Strawberry Plasticulture Researcher)
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609
“An idealist believes the short run does not count. A cynic believes the long run does not matter. A realist believes that what is done or left undone in the short run determines the long run.”

Sidney J. Harris, In: Reclaiming a Lost Heritage – Land-Grant & Other Higher Education Initiatives for the Twenty-first Century