30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (7:45am, 4/6/15)

— Written By NC State Extension

Weekly Outlook:

The pattern change noted last week that will on average lead to  somewhat above normal temperatures in the eastern US will continue for the next couple of weeks.

Weather systems will slow down over the next couple of weeks which will allow the warm and humid air to be drawn well north into southern Canada in the eastern half of North America. This will keep the Mid Atlantic and southeastern states above normal with some wet periods til near the end of April.

As we approach the end of April, it looks like we will switch back to a  pattern that favors below average temperatures in the eastern US.

2015-04-06_07-43-08Chart 1. Valid through April 9

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5: (08 Apr – 10 Apr) Temperatures above normal to start then cool to near normal; scattered showers throughout period. A fairly strong low pressure system is expected to develop in the Midwest and slowly move east into southeastern Canada by very late in the period.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely as the front associated with the low pressure system passes through the area late in the period. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 60s in the northern sections and mid to upper 70s in the southern sections.  Lows in the 40s to mid 50s Precipitation expected to be showery throughout the period in the 0.30” – 0.50” range.

Forecast discussion day 6-8: (11 Apr – 13 Apr) Temperatures warm to slightly above normal during the period.  High pressure will dominate this period so expect mostly fair conditions.  The air behind the “cold front” that will pass through the area late in the last period is not very cold, so with mostly clear skies the daytime temperature will likely warm a few degrees to above normal and the low temperature will cool a few degrees to near normal.  High temperatures are expected to range from the mid-upper 60s to upper 70s.  Low temperature expected to be in the 40s.  Little precipitation expected in the 0.00” – 0.05” range.

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (14 Apr – 16 Apr) Temperatures stay above normal; wet periods. A strong and slow moving low pressure system is expected to develop in the Midwest and slowly move east into central Canada by very late in the period.  Periods of widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely as the front associated with the low pressure system passes through the area. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 60s in the northern sections and mid to upper 70s in the southern sections.  Lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.  Precipitation expected to be showery throughout the period in the 0.60” – 1.00” range.

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (17 Apr – 19 Apr) Temperatures cool to near normal during the period.  A weak high pressure system will dominate this period, so expect mostly fair conditions and near normal temperatures.  The high pressure is weak, so the possibility for some occasional afternoon showers exists for the hilly areas of the region.  High temperatures are expected to range from the mid-upper 60s to low70s.  Low temperatures expected to be in the 40s.   Possible widely scattered afternoon showers in the hills and mountains in the 0.00” – 0.10” range

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22 (20 Apr- 27 Apr): Pattern changes as overall temperatures drop below average.  Expect this period to see a cooler pattern so back to below normal temperatures.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (28 Apr- 5 May): Slightly below average temperatures. Early indications are this period will see slightly below average temperatures for the season.