30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (7:07pm, Sunday, March 29, 2015)

— Written By

Good evening,

Weather systems will move very fast over the next 2 – 3 weeks with significant swings in temperature. System are moving so fast that a  front will  pass through  the area about every other day. This pattern is the type of pattern that the models can get off significantly in timing and intensity of system  so long range forecast (i.e. the Outlook at the end of ths advisory), are more vulnerable to error. Because things are changing so rapidly now, It is imperative that we track  the model trends over several days and not just go with the latest model runs (up until now in the season we have done this 1x/week, but more frequent updates are now required).

We will finally see some above normal temperatures over the next week as the storm track is moving north and will allow warm air to be drawn well north in front of the cold fronts. This means there is an increased threat for some severe weather as the fronts pass through. We are more than overdue for severe weather in the US. By mid-March there are typically 52 tornado watches issued by the NWS. Only four have been issued to date this year. 130 tornadoes are typically reported from January 1 through mid-March, yet only 20 have been reported thus far 2015. Meteorologists  think  with the more active pattern we will start to see those numbers go up.

image001Chart 1. Valid through April 2

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5: (01 Apr – 03 Apr) Temperatures above normal; with wet periods early and late in the period. Weather systems are moving very quickly across North America.  At the beginning of the period, a low pressure system is expected to move east along the northern tier states then southeast off New Jersey coast and out to sea. There will be enough warm air drawn into the region from the south to keep the region on the mild side with scattered showers in the northern portion of the region.  Another stronger low pressure system in southern Canada will move quickly east into southeastern Canada by late period.  Warm and humid air will be drawn up to the region ahead of the cold front associated with the low.  A period of showers and thunderstorms are likely as the front passes through the area late in the period. High temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 60s in the northern sections and mid to upper 70s in the southern sections.  Lows in the 40s to mid 50s Precipitation is expected to be showery early and late in the period in the 0.20” – 0.35” range.

image002Chart 2. Valid through April 5

Forecast discussion day 6-8: (04 Apr – 06 Apr) Temperatures cool below normal early in the period.  A cold front slows down as it moves through the area. Showers continue early in the period.. Temperatures cool down to near normal at the beginning of the period and go to slightly below normal by the end of the period. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid-upper 60s early, then falling to high 40s – low 50 late in the period. Lows start off in the 40s early in the period then fall to the 30s and even high 20s in some cold spots late in the period. Showery precipitation expected this period in the 0.15” – 0.25” range.

image003Chart 3. Valid through April 8

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (07 Apr – 09 Apr) Temperatures warm early, then fall below normal; wet mid period.  Another strong low pressure system is expected to move east along the northern tier states to southeastern Canada by early period.  It is expected warm air will be drawn up from the south ahead of the cold front for a brief warm up early in the period.  Then a rapid and significant cool down is expected mid to late period with showers and thunderstorms as the front passes through the region. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 60s early, then falling to low – mid 50s late in the period.  Lows start off in the 40s early, and then fall to the 30s with some frost in the cold spots late in the period  Showery precipitation expected early this period in the 0.20” – 0.40” range.

image004Chart 4. Valid through April 11

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (10 Apr – 12 Apr) Temperatures warm to above normal. Periods of showers early and late in the period. Two more strong low pressure systems are expected to move east along the northern tier states to southeastern Canada, one early and one late in the period.  This will allow southwest flow to dominate the period, keeping temperatures above normal with two wet periods of moderate shower activity, one early and one late in the period.  The high temperatures expected to range from the upper 60s to upper-70s and lows in the 50s to near 60.   Total precipitation expected to be in the 0.50” –1.00” range.


Outlook discussion day 15 – 22 (13 – 20 Apr): Changeable conditions continue, overall temperatures near to slightly below average.  Expect this period to be very active with several fronts moving through the area so significant swings in temperature from day-to-day with periods of showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (21- 28 Apr): Near average temperatures. Early indications are this period will see near average temperatures for the season.

Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Professor Emeritus (Strawberry Plasticulture Researcher)
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609
“An idealist believes the short run does not count. A cynic believes the long run does not matter. A realist believes that what is done or left undone in the short run determines the long run.”

Sidney J. Harris, In: Reclaiming a Lost Heritage – Land-Grant & Other Higher Education Initiatives for the Twenty-first Century