30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (3:30pm, Sunday, 3/8/15)

— Written By Barclay Poling
en Español

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It looks like we are in for at least two weeks of wet weather as a series of low pressure systems form in the southeast and move northeast into the region. Here is my Skybit for Clayton that came in this late afternoon, and note that we will see rains every day from Tuesday (March 10) through Sunday (March 15). I shared with  Dr. Schnabel, Clemson, this forecast for so much rain, and he commented,

“70s and rainy. Perfect for botrytis. Growers should stick with a rotation of captan, switch and Thiram prior to bloom and even beyond that. Spraying anything else is gambling unless resistance profile is known.”

2015-03-08_17-25-12

(General comments cont’d):  The next week to 10 days will be on the mild side;  with seasonal to  slightly above seasonal average temperatures. Then in about 10 days,  it stays wet with systems continuing to  move in to the area from the southeast, but temperatures cool down to slightly below normal. On the positive side, the temperature  averages are increasing fast this time of years so the net affect will be only a modest drop in the actual temperatures.

image001Chart 1. Valid through 3/12/15.

Forecast discussion day 3 –  (11 Mar – 13 Mar)  Temperatures start above average with showers then cool slowly to near normal late The period will start with a weak wave of low pressure moving through the region from the southeast. This wave will bring in mild and moist air, so expect showers and above average temperatures to start the period. Temperatures will be in high 40s to low 60s and lows in mid 30s.  By late in the period a cold high pressure moves to the north of the area with some of the colder air filtering into the region, causing a cooling of the temperatures by a few degrees to near normal. High temperatures will change to highs in the high 40s to 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s. Precipitation expected to be showery early in the period in 0.15” – 0.25” range.

image002Chart 2. Valid through 3/15/15.

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (14 Mar – 16 Mar) Temperatures stay near average, wet conditions early to mid-period.  The cold high pressure moves northeast and will be replaced by a low pressure system that will form in the southeast US and move northeast affecting the area with widespread rain by mid period.  The high temperatures are expected to range from the low 50s to low 60s and lows in mid to high 30s.   Precipitation expected to be widespread in the 0.35” – 0.60” range.

image003Chart 3. Valid through 3/18/15.

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (17 Mar – 19 Mar) Temperatures below normal, wet to start the period Another low pressure system is expected to form in the southeast US and move northeast once again affecting the area with widespread precipitation.  A cold high pressure will replace the low mid to late period, keeping the area dry but also causing the temperature to fall below normal for the remainder of the period. The high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the high 20s to low 30s.   Precipitation expected to be widespread early in the period in the 0.30” – 0.55” range.

image004Chart 4. Valid through 3/21/15.

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (20 Mar – 22 Mar) Temperatures stay below normal, wet first half of the period Yet another low pressure system is expected to form in the southeast and move northeast affecting the area with wide spread precipitation for most of the period.  This system looks to be somewhat stronger than the previous systems and will move more slowly along the coast, so a prolonged period of rain is likely during this period.  A cold high pressure moving in by late in the period will dry out and cool things down.  High temperatures expected to range from the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows in the high 20s to low 30s.   Precipitation expected to be widespread early to mid in the in the 0.50” – 0.75” range.

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22 (23 Mar – 30 Mar): Below average temperatures. Expectations are that temperatures will continue to stay below seasonal averages during the period.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (31 Mar – 7 Apr): Near to slightly below average temperatures. Early indications are this period will continue near or slightly below the average temperatures for the season.

Have a good evening!

Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Professor Emeritus (Strawberry Plasticulture Researcher)
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609