Forecast Has Worsened & 30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (2/16/15)

Find this article at:
go.ncsu.edu/readext?340472

— Written By Barclay Poling

Forecast has worsened overnight

NC: AWIS NC Feb 16-23
VA – AWIS VA Feb 16-23
MD – AWIS MD Feb 16-23
SC – AWIS SC Feb 16-23
TN – AWIS TN Feb 16-23
KY – AWIS KY Feb 16-23

…morning note from Mike Wilder (north/central piedmont, NC) & how he and growers are working “right now” to get covers back on before ice storm!

Barclay,
Wral (Raleigh) forecast lows for Thurs at 6 degrees, Fri at 18 degrees. That got my attention, so punched in our 27508 zip code on AWIS for a free weather forecast. It’s showing low of 7 Thursday, 1 degree Friday! I helped Russ and family re-cover Sweet Charlie and Albion yesterday after Sat. night winds blew them off. We were thinking we were ok on others, as I thought forecast lows at the time were in mid – high teens. This changes things, so I just told him to try to cover everything today before snow / ice comes. Hope he can get it done. How does Skybit look for Clayton (similar to Bunn) for Thurs / Fri? I think I missed the change over the weekend.
mike

Mike Wilder
Regional Agronomist
Agronomic Division, NCDA&CS
159 NC Hwy 98 East
Bunn, NC 27508
919-495-7495

Reply – yes Mike, things have gotten considerably worse since yesterday’s forecast! Please check my SkyBit for Clayton near the bottom of this advisory. Getting row covers on is an EXCELLENT IDEA. The forecast of precipitation amounts vary with location, but I don’t see the icing on top of covers tonight as a reason not to cover today. The really good thing is that we are not looking at rains, which could soak the covers, and potentially create a frozen block of ice around plants. There should be lots of good air spaces beneath the blankets even if frozen on top. Good thing you are doing this now before icing occurs later in the day – you don’t want to try to handle a rolled up cover that is frozen! Good luck!

p.s. here is further discussion about issues with frozen covers from March 2011: FROZEN ROW COVERS – A SUPPLEMENT

Dear Growers, Agents and Agronomists,

I am presently on my way to Ontario for their annual Fruit and Vegetable Conference beginning tomorrow – hope we don’t experience too much of a problem with icing in Charlotte (where I connect for Buffalo flight)??

Here is the weekly OUTLOOK…it looks like we are now firmly locked in a pattern of very warm and dry weather in the western US and very cold weather in the eastern half of the US. The warm dry high pressure ridge continues to build on the west coast allowing the cold trough to deepen along the east coast. This general pattern will hold until at least the end of February as there are no clear signs that this pattern will change any time soon. At least the early indications are that we may experience near average temperatures in the first half of March (we hope).

Chart 1. Valid through 2/19

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5 (18 Feb – 20 Feb) Temperatures well below normal entire period. A strong cold arctic high pressure will drop out of Canada and move into the Ohio River Valley during this period. This will bring strong northwest winds and extremely cold temperature to the region. Temperatures start the period 10 – 15 F below the seasonal norm with high temperatures expected to range from the low 30s and lows in the 20s early in the period. By late in the period, temperatures drop to 20 – 25 F below the seasonal average with high temperatures expected to range from the low 20s and lows 0 – 10 F. Little to no precipitation expected during the period in the 0.00” – 0.05” range.

Chart 2. Valid through 2/22

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14: (21 Feb – 23 Feb) Temperatures start off cold then warm slightly but stay below normal; wet mid to late in the period. The cold high pressure will depart the area moving northeast and will be replaced by a low pressure system that will form in the southeast US and move to the East Coast. By mid period it is expected that the low pressure system will bring a moderation of temperature and precipitation. Snow will fall in northern and inland locations, while rain and mixed precipitation will fall near the coast. Temperatures start the period with high temperatures expected to range from the low 30s and lows in the 10s – 20s early in the period. Temperatures warm slightly at the end of the period with high temperatures expected to range from low 40s to low 30s and lows in the low 20s – low 30s. Precipitation expected to be widespread in the 0.25” – 0.45” range.

Chart 3. Valid through 2/25

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (24 Feb – 26 Feb) Temperatures decrease and stay below normal. A cold high pressure is expected to once again move southeast out of Canada bringing colder temperatures into the region during the period. Temperatures warm slightly at the end of the period. High temperatures expected to range from low 30s to 20s and lows in the 10s and 20s. Precipitation expected to be scattered early in the 0.05” – 0.15” range.

Chart 4. Valid through 2/28

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14: (27 Feb – 1 Mar) Temperatures stay below normal with periods of scattered snow showers. Yet another cold high pressure is expected to move southeast out of Canada during this period keeping temperatures below normal. High temperatures expected to range from low 30s to 20s and lows in the 10s and 20s. Precipitation expected to be light and scattered and mostly snow in the 0.05” – 0.15” range.

MARCH OUTLOOK

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (2 Mar – 9 Mar): Near average temperatures. Early indications are this period will moderate to near the seasonal average temperatures for the season with a period of moderate to heavy rain.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30: (10 Mar – 17 Mar): Near average temperatures. Early indications are this period will continue near or slightly below the average temperatures for the season.

AWIS UPDATE

This is not such a good surprise, but locations in Central NC like Durham are now going to see potential minimums of 2 F on Thursday morning (2/19), and -1 F on Friday (2/20). It will be bitter cold on Saturday as well. Row covers would be an excellent idea!

For AWIS minimum temperatures for the rest of NC: AWIS NC Feb 16-23

My morning Skybit for Clayton (AS PER MIKE WILDER’S REQUEST):

Friday minimums in NC – this is where things really changed overnight… Friday is going to be even colder than Thursday! All kinds of new record lows will occur if this forecast holds true (hope not).