Updated 30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (11:45am, Monday, 1/5/15)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Here is an updated 30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (an abbreviated version was sent out at 8:30 a.m. today).

Here is how we see the things playing out over the next few weeks at a this time:

– Overall, temperatures in the next two week will very likely be below seasonal averages – about a certain of this as we can get in the forecast business.
–  Cold surge Jan 7 – 9 will very likely be the coldest air so far this season.
–  After the surge there will be a temperature moderation trend but still stay  somewhat below seasonal average until near the end of the month. But could be a few milder days after mid month.
–  Except for the Jan 7 – 9 period,  right now not seeing big extremes in temperatures (i.e. situations more than 10 degrees departure from normal)

1Fig. 1. Chart for Jan 8

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5 (7 Jan – 9 Jan) Temperatures falling to well below normal.  Temperatures start the period below average and continue to drop to well below average as slow moving, strong cold high pressure system moves out of Canada southeast into central US.  Temperatures about 20 degrees below average for this period with highs in 20s – low 30s to lows near 10 to near 20s. Precipitation expected to be widely scattered light snow showers and in the 0.00” – 0.10″ liquid equivalent range.

2Fig. 2. Chart for Jan 11, 2015

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (10 Jan – 12 Jan) Temperatures warmer, but stay below normal.   High pressure continues to dominate the period as another cold high drops out of Canada into the central US.  This will keep temperatures on the order of 5 – 10 degrees below the seasonal average with high temperatures expected to range from upper 20s to low 40s and lows in the low 20s. Mostly dry during the period, precipitation expected to be in the 0.00” – 0.05” range.

new image3Fig. 3. Chart for Jan 14

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (13 Jan –15 Jan) Temperatures slowly moderate to near normal.  Temperatures start the period slightly below average, but will warm slowly to near normal as warm, moist air moves in from the south on the “backside” of the cold high pressure that moves into the Atlantic. High temperatures expected to range from mid 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.  Precipitation expected to be scattered in the 0.05” – 0.15″ range, with rain showers in coastal and southern portions of the region and snow showers in western higher elevations of the region.

4Fig. 4 Chart for Jan 17, 2015

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (16 Jan – 18 Jan) Temperatures drop to slightly below normal.    A cold high pressure is expected to move from Canada to the eastern US seaboard during the period.  At this time do not expect the air mass to be as cold as the one expected 7 – 9 Jan, but it will be cold enough to drop temperatures 2- 5 degrees below the seasonal average. High temperatures expected to range from 30s – low 40s and lows in the 20s. Mostly dry during the period, precipitation expected to be in the 0.00” – 0.05” range.

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (19 Jan –26 Jan): Near average temperatures. Current indications are this period will see a moderation in temperatures to near average for the season.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (27 Jan – 3 Feb): Near average temperatures. Early indications are this period will continue to see temperatures near average for the season.

Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Professor Emeritus (Strawberry Plasticulture Researcher)
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609
“An idealist believes the short run does not count. A cynic believes the long run does not matter. A realist believes that what is done or left undone in the short run determines the long run.”

Sidney J. Harris, In: Reclaiming a Lost Heritage – Land-Grant & Other Higher Education Initiatives for the Twenty-first Century