30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC & Special Thanks to Sponsors in 2014 (Sunday, 12/28/14)
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Here is this Sunday’s 30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA-TN-NC-SC with some introductory comments about how warm sea surface temperatures are playing a significant role in keeping temperatures on the mild side…
The overall forecast trend given in Friday’s forecast update (https://strawberries.ces.ncsu.edu/2014/12/friday-update-less-severe-cold-outbreaks-anticipated-this-winter-124-pm-122614/) of mild temperature til Dec 30 followed by a generally cooler pattern is holding, so those comments are still valid. Warm sea surface temperatures are playing a significant role in keeping temperatures on the mild side even with northwest flow. The map below shows sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the coastal waters impacting the US. Note the very large positive anomalies for both the Atlantic and the Pacific Coastal waters. You can see the much weaker east coast low pressure systems, a more west to east wind pattern and resulting weaker and slower intrusion of the cold air into the US from Canada.
In a nutshell: Even though the general trend for the next couple weeks is for cooler and slightly below normal temperatures, it now appears that there will be a brief surge of warm air with above average temperatures next weekend before falling to slightly below normal for several days.
30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA-TN-NC-SC:
Forecast discussion day 3 – 5 (31 Dec – 2 Jan) Temperatures below normal. Temperatures will likely be below average during this period as a strong cold high pressure system moves into central US. Period starts off with temperatures below average with highs in the 30s – 40s and lows in the 20s – 30s. Temperatures warm slowly as the high moves east and cold temperatures moderate, so that by end of the period highs will likely warm to the lower to upper 40s with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Conditions will be mostly dry with precipitation expected to be in the 0.00” – 0.05″ range.
Forecast discussion day 6 – 8: (3 Jan – 5 Jan) Temperatures warm to above average A low pressure system is expected to develop in Texas early in the period and move through the Great Lakes into Canada during the period. This will bring a surge of warm air north into the region. Expect temperatures will warm to above average during this period. High temperatures expected to range from upper 40s to lower 50s and lows in low to upper 30s across the region early in the period. By mid period warmer air with showers moves into the area with high temperatures expected to range from lower 50s to near 60 and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. Precipitation is expected to be showery in the 0.25” – 0.50” range.
Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (6 Jan – 8 Jan) Temperatures slowly falling from above to below normal. Temperatures start the period above average ahead of a slow moving strong cold high pressure system that will move out of Canada slowly southeast into the US. Temperatures will fall through the period, so that by mid period expected to be near average and then slightly below average by the end of the period. Period starts with temperatures with highs in upper 40s to lower 50s and lows in the 30s. Temperatures cool slowly, so expect by late in the period highs will be in 30s to mid 40s and low in the 20s. Precipitation expected to be scattered and in the 0.05” – 0.15″ range, with rain showers in coastal and southern portions of the region and snow showers in western and higher elevations of the region.
Forecast discussion day 12 – 14: (9 Jan – 11 Jan) Temperatures stay slightly below normal. High pressure dominates early in the period with a weak low pressure system moving along the coast by mid to late in the period. This combination will keep temperatures slightly below normal during the period. High temperatures expected to range from 30s – low 40s and lows in the 20s. As the coastal storm moves north, it will bring some rain with snow in higher elevations and slightly warmer air mid period. Precipitation expected to be in the 0.20” – 0.40” range.
Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (12 Jan –19 Jan): Near average temperatures. Current indications are this period will start slightly below average with a moderation in temperatures to near average for the season by the end of period.
Outlook discussion day 23 – 30: (20 Jan – 27 Jan): Near average temperatures. Early indications are this period will see temperatures near average for the season.
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