30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC & Special Thanks to Sponsors in 2014 (Sunday, 12/28/14)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Good afternoon,

Please be looking for information this next week on how you can do your part to support the continuation of this public advisory service through the 2015 strawberry season. If our sponsorship drive is successful next week, then the next 30 Day Ag Weather Outlook will be posted on January 4th. At the bottom of this advisory you can see a listing of the industry members and growers who were responsible for supporting  this strawberry weather and production advisory service in 2014. Please consider renewing your pledge for the 2015 season!

Here is this Sunday’s 30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA-TN-NC-SC with some introductory comments about how warm sea surface temperatures are playing a significant role in keeping temperatures on the mild side…

The overall forecast  trend  given in  Friday’s  forecast update (https://strawberries.ces.ncsu.edu/2014/12/friday-update-less-severe-cold-outbreaks-anticipated-this-winter-124-pm-122614/) of  mild temperature til Dec 30  followed by a generally  cooler  pattern   is holding, so those comments are  still valid. Warm sea surface temperatures are playing a significant role in keeping temperatures on the mild side even with northwest flow. The map below shows  sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the  coastal waters impacting the US. Note the very large positive anomalies for both the Atlantic and the Pacific Coastal waters. You can see the much weaker east coast low pressure systems, a more west to east wind pattern  and  resulting weaker and slower intrusion of the cold air into the US from Canada.

sst-anomaly-20141228Fig. 1. Gobal map of  sst anomalies is at:  http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif.

In a nutshell: Even though the general trend for the next couple weeks is for cooler and slightly below normal temperatures,  it  now appears that there will be a brief surge of warm air with above average temperatures  next weekend before falling to slightly below normal for several days.

30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA-TN-NC-SC:

image001Fig. 2. Chart for New Year’s Day

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5 (31 Dec – 2 Jan) Temperatures below normal.  Temperatures will likely be below average during this period as a strong cold high pressure system moves into central US.  Period starts off with temperatures below average with highs in the 30s – 40s and lows in the 20s – 30s. Temperatures warm slowly as the high moves east and cold temperatures moderate, so that by end of the period highs will likely warm to the lower to upper 40s with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s.  Conditions will be mostly dry with precipitation expected to be in the 0.00” – 0.05″ range.

image002Fig. 3. Chart for Jan 4

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (3 Jan – 5 Jan) Temperatures warm to above average   A low pressure system is expected to develop in Texas early in the period and move through the Great Lakes into Canada during the period. This will bring a surge of warm air north into the region.  Expect temperatures will warm to above average during this period.  High temperatures expected to range from upper 40s to lower 50s and lows in low to upper 30s across the region early in the period.  By mid period warmer air with showers moves into the area with high temperatures expected to range from lower 50s to near 60 and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.  Precipitation is expected to be showery in the 0.25” – 0.50” range.

image003Fig. 4. Chart for Jan 7

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (6 Jan – 8 Jan) Temperatures slowly falling from above to below normal.  Temperatures start the period above average ahead of a slow moving strong cold high pressure system that will move out of Canada slowly southeast into the US. Temperatures will fall through the period, so that by mid period expected to be near average and then slightly below average by the end of the period.  Period starts with temperatures with highs in upper 40s to lower 50s and lows in the 30s. Temperatures cool slowly, so expect by late in the period highs will be in 30s to mid 40s and low in the 20s.  Precipitation expected to be scattered and in the 0.05” – 0.15″ range, with rain showers in coastal and southern portions of the region and snow showers in western and higher elevations of the region.

image004Fig. 5. Chart for Jan 10

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (9 Jan – 11 Jan) Temperatures stay slightly below normal.    High pressure dominates early in the period with a weak low pressure system moving along the coast by mid to late in the period.  This combination will keep temperatures slightly below normal during the period. High temperatures expected to range from 30s – low 40s and lows in the 20s. As the coastal storm moves north, it will bring some rain with snow in higher elevations and slightly warmer air mid period. Precipitation expected to be in the 0.20” – 0.40” range.

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (12 Jan –19 Jan): Near average temperatures. Current indications are this period will start slightly below average with a moderation in temperatures to near average for the season by the end of period.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (20 Jan – 27 Jan): Near average temperatures. Early indications are this period will see temperatures near average for the season.

Acknowledging the industry members and growers who sponsored the Strawberry Weather and Production Advisories in 2014

Level of Gift Giving:

$1500 or more (this is the level of giving was encouraged in 2014 for the strawberry industry’s  plant suppliers). I can’t say enough about this group! This is an awesome level of support, and without it, this advirosy service would have never happened!

  • Aarons Creek Farms, Inc., Gregg Gordon/Greg Williamson, Buffalo Junction, VA
  • Balamore Farm, Ltd., Joe Cooper, Great Village, Nova Scotia
  • Cottle Strawberry Nursery, Ron Cottle/Sonny Cottle/Whit Jones, Faison, NC
  • G & W Nurseries, Donna and Jim Goodson/Mitchell Wrenn, Damascus, AR, and Zebulon, NC
  • Westech Agriculture Ltd., Nora and Raymond Dorgan, Alberton, Prince Edward Island, Canada

$500 to $1499 (this is the level of giving we’ve encouraged if you are a state strawberry association, or perhaps you run a consulting group that benefits from these alerts). My most sincere thanks to Hunter Farms, Bob Rouse, and the new Virginia Strawberry Association!

  • Hunter Farms, Eric and Kristi Hunter, Easley, SC
  • Bob Rouse Agriculturist LLC, Denton, MD
  • Virginia Strawberry Association

$200 to $499:  We had a significant number of growers really “step up” and make gifts of $200 to $400. Their generosity and leadership are very much appreciated!

  • Agriberry, LLC, Chuck and Anne Geyer, Hanover, VA
  • Barnes Farm & Produce LLC, Donnie Barnes/Heather Robinson, Willow Spring, NC
  • Bernie’s Berries, James Kenan and Bernice Kenan,  Greensboro, NC
  • J.E. Cooley Farms, Inc., Strawberry Hill, USA, Chesnee, SC
  • DJ’s Berry Patch LLC, Darin and Jessica Jones, Willow Spring, NC
  • Leggett Farming Partnership, Brent and Sue Leggett, Nashville, NC
  • Piedmont Produce LLC, Alan L. Baucom, Monroe, NC
  • TC Smith Produce Farm, Curtis Smith, Seven Springs, NC
  • The Rudd Farm, Kenneth, Joan, Matt and Ken Rudd, Greensboro, NC
  • The Vollmer Farm, John and Russ Vollmer, Bunn, NC
  • Valley Home Farm, Nancy Edwards, Bob and Janet Potts, Wartrace, TN
  • Van Meter Family Farm, Danny and Trish Van Meter, Clarkson, KY
  • Whitted Bowers Farm, Rob Bowers, Cedar Grove, NC

$100 to $199:  We had 19 farms and one nursery make gifts of $100 to $150 from 9 states!

  • Brookdale Farms & Produce, LLC, Tom Baker, Virginia Beach, VA
  • Carter Farms, Billy Carter, Eagle Springs, NC
  • Color Burst, Joe Burns, Grayson, GA
  • Cottle Strawberry Farm, Joy Cottle, Florence, SC
  • Craven and Kimberley Smith, Gibsonville, NC
  • Crown Orchard Co., Huff Chiles, Batesville, VA
  • Fifer Orchards, Bobby Fifer, Wyoming, DE
  • Fisher Farms Partnership, Beth Taylor, Whitakers, NC
  • Harman’s Produce, Paula Harman, Churchville, MD
  • Iseley Farm, Jane Iseley, Burlington, NC
  • Lassen Canyon Nursery, Elizabeth Ponce, Redding, CA
  • Maurer Farms, David Maurer, Wooster, OH
  • McCauley Farms, Larry and Frances McCauley, Burlington, NC
  • McNeil Farms, Steve McNeill, Sanford, NC
  • Mount Olympus Berry Farm, Mary and Ken West, Ruther Glen, VA
  • Sparacio Farms, Butch Sparacio, Bridgeton, NJ
  • The Collard Patch, Hal Gurley, Wake Forest, NC
  • The Hunter Farm, Nancy Anderson, Weddington, NC
  • Westover Farm, Timothy Miller, Mc Kenney, VA

$50 to $99:

  • Horton Family Farm, David Horton, Windsor, VA

Happy New Year!

Dr. E. Barclay Poling

  • Retired Small Fruit Extension Specialist
    & Professor Emeritus
    Department of Horticultural Science
    Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
    NC State University
    Raleigh, NC 27695-7609