NC Update 2: A Deciding Factor Tonight Will Be OVERCAST SKIES, or WINDS (4:54pm, 4/17/14)

— Written By Barclay Poling

rocky mount wilsonExhibit No. 1 – this was the forecast by AWIS this morning for the Rocky Mount-Wislon area in NC, and it showed frost at 4 a.m. Friday.

When I re-examined this forecast at 3:50 p.m. for Rocky Mount, as well as 63 other locations in NC this afternoon,  I noticed that Rocky Mount still has pretty much the same forecast — frost tomorrow morning at about 4 a.m., and that skies would be going from CLR (clear) to SCT (scattered clouds) in the morning, and sometime after sunrise will be overcast.

rocky late

In examing the 64 AWIS locations in NC, these were the only ones with a FROST forecast for tomorrow morning, and in these locations skies will be relatively clear to scattered clouds, but not overcast. But, overcast skies don’t tell the whole story this  evening, as in Greensboro, for example, they will have clear skies in the early morning, but winds are expected to be fairly steady from midnight until sunrise (6-9 mph), and that will likely prevent frost from forming in that area of the state tomorrow morning (below).


AWIS Hourly Forecast For Greensboro, NC Produced at 3:22 p.m. CDT on Thu Apr 17 2014 Day-Length = 13:11 / Sunrise at 6:44 a.m. / Sunset at 7:55 p.m. Local Forecast For Thursday April 17, 2014 Hour 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 MIN= 31 MAX= 60 TEMP 41 39 37 36 35 31 31 34 36 40 44 48 50 53 56 57 60 60 58 56 54 50 46 44 DEWP 23 22 22 22 21 22 22 22 27 28 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 27 28 WETB 34 33 32 31 30 28 28 30 33 35 38 40 41 42 44 44 46 46 45 44 43 41 39 38 WNDS 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 7 8 9 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 WNDD E NE NE ENE ENE ENE ENE ENE CLDC CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR INV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 DEWF POP6 0 3 4 3 3 6 6 5 Q1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Local Forecast For Friday April 18, 2014 Hour 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 MIN= 35 MAX= 57 TEMP 43 42 41 40 39 35 35 38 41 45 47 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 57 54 53 51 50 DEWP 29 30 31 31 30 34 34 30 33 35 35 36 36 37 37 37 38 38 37 37 38 39 38 39 WETB 37 37 37 36 35 35 35 35 38 41 42 44 44 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 46 46 45 45 WNDS 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 10 13 15 15 14 13 13 11 10 WNDD ENE NE NE NE ENE ENE NNE NNE CLDC CLR CLR OVC OVC CLR OVC OVC OVC INV 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 DEWF

In Lexington, NC, you can see we will have OVC skies beginning around 4 a.m., and FROST is not expected (below):


AWIS Hourly Forecast For Lexington-David, NC Produced at 3:26 p.m. CDT on Thu Apr 17 2014 Day-Length = 13:10 / Sunrise at 6:45 a.m. / Sunset at 7:56 p.m. Local Forecast For Thursday April 17, 2014 Hour 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 MIN= 30 MAX= 60 TEMP 38 36 34 34 33 30 30 33 36 40 44 48 50 52 55 56 58 60 60 57 55 52 49 46 DEWP 26 25 25 26 25 25 25 26 28 28 28 27 28 28 28 28 29 28 28 31 31 31 31 31 WETB 34 32 31 31 30 28 28 31 33 35 38 40 41 42 44 44 45 46 46 45 44 43 41 40 WNDS 2 3 5 5 3 2 2 3 5 6 7 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 6 3 3 3 5 WNDD E NE ENE ENE ENE E E E CLDC CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR INV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 DEWF F F F F F POP6 0 3 4 2 2 5 5 6 Q1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Local Forecast For Friday April 18, 2014 Hour 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 MIN= 40 MAX= 60 TEMP 45 44 43 43 42 40 40 42 43 46 49 52 53 55 57 58 60 60 59 58 56 55 53 51 DEWP 30 29 29 30 31 31 31 32 33 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 37 37 38 39 40 WETB 39 38 37 38 38 36 36 38 39 41 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 49 48 48 47 47 46 46 WNDS 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 5 6 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 WNDD E NNE NE NE NE ENE NNE ENE CLDC SCT OVC OVC OVC OVC OVC OVC OVC INV 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 DEWF POP6 6 12 12 8 8 27 27 54 Q1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 9

So, where is AWIS forecasting FROST in NC tomorrow morning? It turns out that right in my N. Raleigh backyard (and front yard), I will see frost tomorrow! The minimum temp will be 34 F, skies relatively clear and winds in 5-6 mph range at 5 a.m. – 6 a.m. So, this would be a good place to be prepared to either sling some water (when you start seeing evidence of ice crystals forming), or use a row cover (hopefully, growers in this area did not take the covers out of the field today and store them – if that is their only means of frost control).

RDU late

Another relatively nearby area that will ‘possibly’ have frost tomorrow morning is Rocky-Mount Wilson, which was noted at the top of this advisory.

So, these are the only NC locations (out of 64 covered by AWIS ) that have FROST in the forecast for tomorrow morning. I know how disappointed many of you are to have been left off this list!

4.18 Friday mins AWIS 6 a.m. 6 a.m. 5-6 a.m.
Location Frost Hr Min temp Dewpoint Winds
1 Andrews 4 a.m. 34 32 2
2 Asheville 5 a.m. 37 33 3
3 Boone 5 a.m. 36 28 0
4 Burlington 5 a.m. 37 32 5
5 Franklin 3 a.m. 33 30 1
6 RaleighDur 5 a.m. 34 34 6
7 Rocky MT 4 a.m. 34 34 7

In case you are wondering, these are the other locations I checked. Please feel free to double-check my work, and good luck to the growers in these 7 locations covered by AWIS. There are many others that are not! If I were in your shoes, I would try to get some information in the next few minutes about  hourly winds and sky conditions for tonight for our area.

If you are having trouble locating this type of information, I can double-check on AccuWeather Pro. (number for text message: 919 418 9687)

5-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Good luck!

Barclay

p.s. I am still afraid to say, “Tonight should do it.”  Hopefully, this will be the final frost episode for growers in the Piedmont!

Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Interim Executive Director, NC Strawberry Association Inc.
& Professor Emeritus (Strawberry Plasticulture Researcher)
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609
“When everyone is thinking the  same…  someone isn’t   thinking ….”  —  George S  Patton
Updated on Apr 17, 2014
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