Early Evening Strategy Update (7:30pm, 4/16/14)

— Written By Barclay Poling

Some growers aren’t taking any chances tonight! But, be sure to read at the very bottom of this advisory how the “cure can be worse than the disease sometimes.”

not taking any chances - lee berryFig. 1 Row covers applied on top of low tunnels – this should provide a very high level of cold protection tonight! Across the state growers made preparations today for what could prove to be another challenging night! One of the biggest questions about tonight is how much of a factor winds will be? Winds did stay up last evening in most areas, and I still have not heard of one frost report from this morning?

North Carolina was just now featured on ABC nightly news for having both FROST and FREEZE conditions tonight. The FREEZE conditions will occur in locations like Southeast NC where temperatures may go below 32 F, but there will be little if any frost due to wind! However, with a minimum temperture of 31 (Table 1), there is no risk of damage to open strawberry blossoms which are safe down to 28 F (in absence of frost). The question is whether it may possibly go to 28 F, or lower? If the forecast is wrong, and it gets colder than 28, it is important to take out what I referred to yesterday as “bad forecast” insurance – and a row cover applied late this afternoon will afford excellent protection against the possibility that it could be colder than 31 F. Likewise, sprinkler irrigation can be very effectively used to prevent cold injury to blossoms,  but the key is to start the system up at the right time, and to remember to never start later than 31 F wet bulb!

Table 1. Southeast NC                            
NWS FORECAST ZONES 87-90,96-101                   

**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS  ****
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO WIND **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      31 - 40
Elizabethtown Min           36 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  1
Range Dewpoint Temps:     17 - 38
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     32 - 42
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE 11                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/18/14  04/19/14  04/20/14  04/21/14  04/22/14  04/23/14
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------

   37 - 47   45 - 52   45 - 50   45 - 49   51 - 56   54 - 58
true true

Figure 2. This is the late afternoon minimum temperature forecast from AWIS for NC, and it has not changed very much since this morning. But, what this map doesn’t show are the likely wind speeds that may occur tonight across Eastern NC, the Piedmont, the Sandhills, Foothills and Mountains? In areas where winds will remain “up” through the night, it will not frost. In areas where winds die down, even in locations that are in the teal color (36-38), there is a chance of frost. Thus, minimum temperature maps don’t really help North Carolina growers all that much tonight as far as figuring out whether a frost will occur or not? However, AWIS has proven to my satisfaction that they do a respectable job of forecasting actual FROSTS, and that is why I am providing now their latest DETAILED HOURLY FORECASTS for these 64 locations in NC (below).

5-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Now, I would like to show you why these detailed hourly forecasts are valuable on a night like this. First, let’s look at the Eastern NC location of Kenansville, NC (see red marker). Kenansville is south of Goldsboro, and I’d like to point out that this location will likely see FROST as early as 1 a.m. tomorrow morning at an air temp of 37 F.  Now do you see why minimum temp tables are of so little value? You also need to note that winds will still be up around 6-7 mph when ice crystals start forming on strawberry plants and blossoms! Further, please note the wet bulb is 35 at 1 a.m. (no worry about a cold jolt). The key is for any grower in this area to be totally focused on seeing “ice crystals” forming, as your cue to start irrigation up.

kenansville

AWIS Hourly Forecast For Kenansville-Dup, NC     
Produced at  5:57 p.m. CDT on Wed Apr 16 2014
Day-Length = 13:06 / Sunrise at  6:38 a.m. / Sunset at  7:45 p.m.

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     April 16, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 38                    MAX= 56
TEMP  51 49 46 44 42 38 38 40 39 41 43 46 48 50 53 54 56 56 53 49 45 43 41 39
DEWP  42 40 38 36 34 34 34 30 30 29 26 24 25 25 26 26 26 26 30 32 34 33 33 33
WETB  47 45 43 41 39 36 36 36 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 44 43 42 40 39 38 37
WNDS  10 13 15 14 13 10 11 13 17 17 16 15 15 16 17 15 13 10  9  8  7  7  7  6
WNDD         N       NW        N        N      NNW      NNW       NE       NE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR
INV    0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1
DEWF                                                                        D
POP6        56        3        7        1        1        0        0        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For   Thursday     April 17, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 35                    MAX= 64
TEMP  38 37 35 35 36 36 38 40 42 46 50 54 56 59 62 62 64 64 61 57 53 51 49 47
DEWP  33 32 32 32 32 33 35 36 38 38 37 36 35 35 34 33 33 33 38 39 41 41 41 41
WETB  36 35 34 34 34 35 37 38 40 43 44 46 46 48 49 48 49 49 50 48 47 46 45 44
WNDS   6  6  7  6  5  2  5  7 10 10 11 13 11 10  8  8  9 10  8  6  3  3  3  2
WNDD       NNE        N        N        N      NNE        N        N       NE
CLDC       SCT      OVC      BKN      BKN      BKN      CLR      OVC      OVC
INV    1  2  2  2  2  4  2  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  2
DEWF   D  F  F  F  F  F  D  D                                                
POP6         3        4        4        4        4        5        5        4
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Let’s now go to Goldsboro:

AWIS Hourly Forecast For Goldsboro_NC, NC     
Produced at  6:05 p.m. CDT on Wed Apr 16 2014
Day-Length = 13:07 / Sunrise at  6:38 a.m. / Sunset at  7:45 p.m.

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     April 16, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 36                    MAX= 54
TEMP  48 46 43 41 39 36 36 37 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 51 54 54 51 48 44 43 41 39
DEWP  43 41 38 36 34 34 34 30 30 28 26 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 29 32 33 33 32 31
WETB  46 44 41 39 37 35 35 34 35 35 36 36 38 39 40 41 42 42 42 41 39 39 37 36
WNDS  20 16 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 11 10  8  6  6  7  8
WNDD         N        N        N      NNE      NNE      NNE      NNE       NE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR
INV    0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1
DEWF                                                                         
POP6        55        4        7        1        1        0        0        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For   Thursday     April 17, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 33                    MAX= 61
TEMP  38 37 35 35 35 33 33 37 39 43 47 52 54 56 58 59 61 61 58 55 52 51 49 47
DEWP  31 30 29 29 30 30 30 32 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 38 39 40 40 39 39
WETB  35 34 33 33 33 32 32 35 37 40 42 44 45 46 47 48 49 49 48 47 46 46 45 43
WNDS   7  6  3  5  6  8  8  9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10  9  8  8  7  6  6  7  8
WNDD       NNE      NNE      NNE       NE      NNE       NE       NE      ENE
CLDC       FEW      BKN      BKN      BKN      BKN      CLR      SCT      SCT
INV    1  2  3  3  2  2  2  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1
DEWF         F  F  F  F  F  F                                                
POP6         3        5        5        4        4        5        5        5
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

In Goldsboro the winds will be dying down to 3 mph at 2 a.m., and note that this is when the frost will commence. It’s not about the minimum temp of 33 F at 5-6 a.m., it’s really all about whether winds will be dying down, or not. As shown in the Kenansville example, we can get frost at 37 F. The key again will be to start sprinkling as soon as you see ice crystals!

In nearby Kinston please notice how close the air TEMP numbers are to the DEWP numbers – instead of being 5-6 F apart, they are only 1 F apart. This is a very unique situation where a row cover grower needs to be extremely cautious about the possibility of FROST FORMING UNDERNEATH THE COVER, AND CAUSING SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO BLOSSOMS. We had over 3 inches of rain in Kinston in the last day, and things are super saturated there. I actually left the research station tonight and decided to NOT apply row covers at all. I would rather take my chances on some winds in the 6-9 mph range for keeping frost from forming than risk creating a frost underneath the cover. A grower in nearby Winterville sent me a text message at 6 p.m., and they applied covers, but I said there is an elevated risk for frost under the covers, and they need to consider running drip irrigation this early morning to “add some heat” back into the system. Believe it or not, just running the drip from 4:30 a.m. – 6:30 a.m. can keep one of these devilish frosts from forming under the covers. I actually contacte a grower in Tidewater VA (Chesepeake and Pungo) an hour ago about a similar concern (with very high dewpoints), and he just wrote me back:

  • No, Barclay, we’ll be throwin’ water. Our covers are in the row middles,
    soaked from nearly 2 inches of rain yesterday (we’ll get ’em out of the
    berry fields and put ’em on our early sweet corn as soon as we can get ’em
    dry). The wind has lessened
    considerably as today has progressed (now about 3-5 mph) and I expect it to
    be nearly calm by the time we need it tonight. It’s a little before 7 p.m.
    now and temp is already down to 44 here at home. I think it’s going to be a
    long night! -Tom
AWIS Hourly Forecast For Kinston_AP, NC     
Produced at  6:09 p.m. CDT on Wed Apr 16 2014
Day-Length = 13:07 / Sunrise at  6:36 a.m. / Sunset at  7:44 p.m.

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     April 16, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 31                    MAX= 54
TEMP  48 45 41 39 36 31 31 33 39 41 43 46 48 50 52 52 54 54 52 50 47 45 43 40
DEWP  45 42 39 36 31 31 31 28 31 30 28 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 33 34 35 35 36 35
WETB  47 44 40 38 34 31 31 31 36 37 37 39 40 41 42 42 43 43 44 43 42 41 40 38
WNDS  20 18 17 16 15 13 13 14 15 16 17 20 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 11 13 14
WNDD         N      NNW        N      NNE      NNE      NNE      ENE       NE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR
INV    0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
DEWF                                                                         
POP6        61        5       10        1        1        0        0        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For   Thursday     April 17, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 34                    MAX= 61
TEMP  39 38 36 36 36 34 34 38 40 44 48 52 54 56 58 59 61 61 59 57 54 52 50 47
DEWP  35 36 35 35 35 34 34 37 39 40 41 41 42 42 43 43 43 43 44 45 45 45 44 43
WETB  37 37 36 36 36 34 34 38 40 42 45 47 48 49 50 51 52 52 51 51 49 49 47 45
WNDS  11  9  6  6  6  6  7  9 11 13 14 15 14 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WNDD       NNE        N        N       NE      NNE      NNE       NE       NE
CLDC       SCT      OVC      BKN      BKN      BKN      CLR      OVC      OVC
INV    1  1  3  3  3  3  3  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
DEWF         F  F  F  F  F  D                                                
POP6         3        4        4        4        4        5        5        5
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

This table for Kinston shows a very unusual situation with DEWP temps being almost as high as air TEMP – under this condition a frost can form beneath the row cover!

Let’s take a look at Chesepeake, VA:

AWIS Hourly Forecast For Chesapeake-Ches, VA     
Produced at  6:23 p.m. CDT on Wed Apr 16 2014
Day-Length = 13:10 / Sunrise at  6:30 a.m. / Sunset at  7:40 p.m.

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     April 16, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 35                    MAX= 46
TEMP  49 47 44 42 40 35 35 38 38 39 40 42 42 43 44 44 46 46 45 44 42 41 40 38
DEWP  40 38 36 34 32 32 32 28 30 27 24 21 21 22 23 23 23 23 28 30 32 32 32 31
WETB  45 43 41 39 37 34 34 34 35 35 34 34 34 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 35
WNDS  20 17 14 13 11 10 11 13 16 17 20 22 20 17 15 15 15 15 14 13 10  9  8  6
WNDD        NW      WNW        N      NNE      NNE       NE       NE      NNE
CLDC       BKN      CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR
INV    0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
DEWF                                                                        D
POP6        73       15       20        1        1        0        0        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For   Thursday     April 17, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 33                    MAX= 54
TEMP  37 36 33 33 35 35 37 39 42 45 48 51 51 51 52 52 54 54 53 52 50 49 48 46
DEWP  30 30 30 30 29 29 31 32 35 35 35 34 34 35 37 36 36 36 38 39 40 40 40 40
WETB  34 34 32 32 33 33 35 36 39 41 42 43 43 44 45 45 46 46 46 46 45 45 44 43
WNDS   6  6  6  6  6  5  6  7  8 10 13 16 16 15 14 14 15 16 15 13 10  8  6  3
WNDD        NE      NNE      NNE       NE       NE       NE      ENE      NNE
CLDC       BKN      OVC      BKN      BKN      BKN      CLR      OVC      OVC
INV    1  1  2  2  2  2  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
DEWF   F  F  F  F  F  F  F  D  D

In Chesepeake, VA, please note how early in the evening the FROST will occur – 00 (midnight). I completely agree with Tom Baker who wrote the note that he is not using row covers tonight that it is going to be a long night for growers in Tidewater VA, as Tom will likely be pumping from midnight until around 7 a.m. tomorrow morning. And, please note that his frost will start with an air temp of 37 F (sound familiar?). Thus, I could post a map of Virginia minimum temps for tomorrow morning, but what would it mean? Unless we know the wind situation as well as dewpoints, the frost picture is incomplete.

In fairness now to piedmont growers, lets look at Raleigh-Durham NC and Ashland VA.

AWIS Hourly Forecast For Raleigh-Durham, NC     
Produced at  6:29 p.m. CDT on Wed Apr 16 2014
Day-Length = 13:08 / Sunrise at  6:40 a.m. / Sunset at  7:49 p.m.

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     April 16, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 32                    MAX= 54
TEMP  44 43 41 39 37 32 32 35 33 37 40 44 45 47 49 50 52 54 54 52 50 47 45 43
DEWP  37 36 34 32 30 29 29 26 23 22 21 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 21 26 27 26 26 27
WETB  41 40 38 36 34 31 31 32 30 32 33 35 36 37 39 39 41 41 41 41 41 39 38 37
WNDS  16 14 11 10  8  6  7  9 10 13 15 18 16 14 11 11 11 10 10  9  8  8  8  9
WNDD       NNE      NNE       NE       NE       NE      NNE      ENE      ENE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR
INV    0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
DEWF                  F  F  F                                                
POP6        41        4        5        1        1        2        2        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For   Thursday     April 17, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 32                    MAX= 61
TEMP  42 40 38 37 36 32 32 36 37 40 44 49 51 53 56 57 61 61 58 55 52 50 48 46
DEWP  27 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 28 28 28 29 29 28 28 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 32 32
WETB  36 35 34 33 32 30 30 33 34 35 38 41 42 43 44 44 46 46 45 44 43 42 41 40
WNDS   8  7  5  5  5  3  5  7  9 10 13 15 14 13 11 10  9  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
WNDD       ENE       NE       NE      ENE       NE       NE        E      ENE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR      CLR      FEW      BKN
INV    1  2  3  3  4  6  5  3  2  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1
DEWF                  F  F  F                                                
POP6         3        9        9        4        4        5        5        5
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

In Raleigh-Durham we won’t see frost until about 5 a.m.! And, notice that we will get to 37 F at 3 a.m., but no frost! Reason:  DEWP are lower (mid-20s). The higher the DEWP, the more moist the air, and the easier it is to form “ice crystals.” In Raleigh-Durham tonight the key will be to standby until you finally see ice crystals, and when you do, start irrigation up. Is there risk of frost under the row cover in this location? NO! In fact, this is a situation where both row covers and sprinkling work equally well. Except, the row cover folks get to sleep all night!

I have selected Ashland VA as my central VA location (north of Richmond)

AWIS Hourly Forecast For Ashland_VA, VA     
Produced at  6:35 p.m. CDT on Wed Apr 16 2014
Day-Length = 13:12 / Sunrise at  6:33 a.m. / Sunset at  7:46 p.m.

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     April 16, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 28                    MAX= 50
TEMP  40 38 36 35 34 28 28 34 34 36 39 42 43 44 46 47 50 50 48 46 44 41 38 35
DEWP  29 27 25 24 23 23 23 22 22 20 19 17 17 16 17 17 17 17 19 20 22 23 23 24
WETB  36 34 32 31 30 26 26 30 30 31 32 34 34 35 36 37 38 38 38 36 36 34 33 31
WNDS  11 10  8  8  7  6  6  7  5  7  9 11 10  9  7  7  6  5  5  3  2  2  1  0
WNDD         W      WSW        N        N      NNE      NNE      ENE        N
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR
INV    0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  6
DEWF                  F  F                                                   
POP6        50        6        9        1        1        2        2        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For   Thursday     April 17, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 30                    MAX= 56
TEMP  35 34 33 33 33 30 30 35 37 41 45 49 50 51 52 52 56 56 52 50 48 46 44 42
DEWP  24 24 24 25 26 26 26 28 30 31 31 30 31 31 32 31 30 30 33 33 34 34 35 35
WETB  31 31 30 30 31 29 29 32 34 37 39 41 42 42 43 43 45 45 44 43 42 41 40 39
WNDS   0  0  0  0  0  0  1  2  3  3  5  6  6  6  6  5  3  1  1  1  1  1  1  0
WNDD         N        N        E      ENE        E      ENE       NE        N
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      BKN      BKN      CLR      OVC      FEW
INV    6  7  8  8  8 11  7  3  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  4
DEWF            F  F  F  F  F                                               D
POP6         3       11       11        5        5        5        5        5
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

In Ashland, AWIS is anticipating frost at 3 a.m. (two hours earlier than like Raleigh-Durham), and notice how the winds are ZERO mph. Actually, the winds are zero at 11 p.m., but the temperature is still not quite cold enough at 11 p.m. for frost to occur with a mid-20s DEWP. Once again, the grower’s key is to watch for “ice crystals” forming in the lowest section of the field on layflat line, rolled up row cover, and/or ground level vegetation. When you see  “ice crystals” — start slinging the water! In this situation a row cover would work very well, as well.

I know it’s getting late, but I thought it might be well to review with you how it’s not just about minimum temps, but winds and dewpoints play into frost equation in a very big way!

To get some idea about whether you may see FROST in our location tonight, I have once again included the latest AWIS Detailed forecasts for locations in VA, MD, TN, SC, and KY (below) — this is still the best product I have seen for actual FROST forecasting.

A final bit of advice, set your frost alarm high tonight – like 38 F. There is a real chance that some areas will see frost even at 37 F! It really depends on  winds and dewpoints as to when you will actually see frost tonight!

VIRGINIA

5-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Maryland:

5-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

South Carolina:

5-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Anderson_Co_Air Beaufort_SC Charleston_Muni Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Darlington
Florence_SC Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green
Hilton_Head_AP Myrtle_Beach North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Rock_Hill Sumter_SC

Tennessee:

5-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Kentucky:

5-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Finally, for the benefit of NC growers, this is the most recent AWIS FROST/FREEZE ALERT and in this forecast you can see just how much of a factors winds are in whether these different areas will have FROST or not!

AWIS Weather Services, Inc. North Carolina Frost/Freeze Forecast
Produced at  504 p.m. CDT on Wed Apr 16 2014

... Forecast for Tonight ... Northeast NC Coast                      
Currituck/Camden/Pasquotank/Tyrrell Counties      
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO CLOUDS/WIND **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      37 - 44
Elizabeth_City Min          39 
Range Dewpoint Temps:     29 - 39
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     36 - 43
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE 12                          
AVG Sky Condition:     Mostly Cloudy

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/18/14  04/19/14  04/20/14  04/21/14  04/22/14  04/23/14
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   41 - 48   47 - 54   46 - 53   44 - 51   51 - 57   52 - 59
--------

East Central/SE NC Coast                
Carteret/Pamlico Counties                         
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO CLOUDS/WIND **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      39 - 40
Morehead_City Min           39 
Range Dewpoint Temps:     30 - 39
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     35 - 40
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE 14                          
AVG Sky Condition:     Mostly Cloudy

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/18/14  04/19/14  04/20/14  04/21/14  04/22/14  04/23/14
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   45 - 48   51 - 52   46 - 50   47 - 50   52 - 55   55 - 57
--------

Southeast NC                            
NWS FORECAST ZONES 87-90,96-101                   

**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS  ****
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO WIND **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      31 - 40
Elizabethtown Min           36 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  1
Range Dewpoint Temps:     17 - 38
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     32 - 42
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE 11                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/18/14  04/19/14  04/20/14  04/21/14  04/22/14  04/23/14
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   37 - 47   45 - 52   45 - 50   45 - 49   51 - 56   54 - 58
--------

North-Central NC                        
Franklin County Area                              

**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS  ****
****  FROST LIKELY ****

Lowest Temperatures:      27 - 38
Louisburg Min               27 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  5
Durations at/below 28:     0 -  1
Range Dewpoint Temps:     17 - 28
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     30 - 36
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE  6     Long Periods of Calm 
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/18/14  04/19/14  04/20/14  04/21/14  04/22/14  04/23/14
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   33 - 43   40 - 48   42 - 49   41 - 49   50 - 56   49 - 56
--------

North/Central NC                        
Alamance County Area                              

**** FREEZING TEMPERATURES ****
** PATCHY FROST COLDEST PROTECTED AREAS **

Lowest Temperatures:      28 - 34
Graham_AG Min               32 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  4
Durations at/below 28:     0 -  0
Range Dewpoint Temps:     14 - 27
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     29 - 36
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE  7                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/18/14  04/19/14  04/20/14  04/21/14  04/22/14  04/23/14
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   34 - 39   42 - 46   44 - 49   44 - 49   51 - 56   51 - 56
--------

South/Central NC                        
Richmond County Area                              

**** FREEZE COLD LOCATIONS  ****
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO WIND **** 

Lowest Temperatures:      32 - 36
Ellerbe Min                 36 
Durations at/below 32:     0 -  0
Range Dewpoint Temps:      9 - 29
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     32 - 36
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE 11                          
AVG Sky Condition:         Clear    

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

  04/18/14  04/19/14  04/20/14  04/21/14  04/22/14  04/23/14
  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
   40 - 41   44 - 49   46 - 49   46 - 49   52 - 54   52 - 56
--------

For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955. Copyright 2014 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved.
Good luck!
Barclay
p.s. my text msg number:  919 418 0687
p.s.s. note that just came in from a grower near ASHLAND, VA
  • I decided to pull covers yesterday in the am while we had a break in the rain. I think that was the wrong decision. I had almost no damage in a block that had no cover, and a huge amount of damage to blossoms and green fruit, not to mention the broken petioles and bruised leaves.  Our temps never reached the forecasted lows because of the very high sustained winds of 15-20 plus gusts of 30 or so(forecasted wind speed was 10-12 for most of the night). Cure was definitely worse than the disease.  Anyway, did not know if anyone else has relayed any like info to you?
  • PS    your awis forecast is a big part of my decision making process. If you could find the time to either post the links or send the Ashland Va directly to me. I have another night of watching blossom temps under covers ahead.Thanks for all your hard work this “spring”

    Ken

Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Interim Executive Director, NC Strawberry Association Inc.
& Professor Emeritus (Strawberry Plasticulture Researcher)
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees
the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill, Prime Minister of England

cc

Updated on Apr 16, 2014
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