Basic Weather Details for NORTH CAROLINA by REGION (3:22pm, March 24, 2014)

— Written By Barclay Poling
  • Dear NC Growers, Agents, Agronomists and Others

Please click on this pdf for  minimum temp forecast for NC locations over next 7 days:

NC AWIS Mar 23 to 30

Minimum temperature maps for the state for Tue, Wed and Thur. Friday much warmer.

nc tue

Fig. 1. Min temp Tue in NC – there are frost forecasts in some areas

nc wed

Fig. 2. Min temp Wed in NC

nc thur

Fig. 3. Min temp Thur in NC – Large part of the state in gray color (26-28 F). This could be very dangerous for Eastern NC, and Sandhills where crop is in bloom. The dark gray is for 24-26, and this is cold enough to kill popcorns, and larger tight flower buds. Thus, the recommendation for row cover protection across areas that are still only at the tight bud stage, but may see temps in mid-20s and lower on Thursday morning March 27th

Contrary to the AWIS FROST/FREEZE forecast for tonight (sent out earlier today), there may be FROST in locations tomorrow morning like Kenansville DESPITE clouds and somewhat dry air. Because the wet bulb will already be down to 28 F at midnight, the grower using sprinkler irrigation tonight would have to begin at wet bulb of 31 F at about 10 p.m. (2200), thus the air temp then will be 34 F (start up). Keep running until all ice is melting nicely tomorrow morning. Should be ok by 8 a.m. Tue to shutdown.

AWIS Hourly Forecast For Kenansville-Dup, NC     
Produced at  2:49 p.m. CDT on Mon Mar 24 2014
Day-Length = 12:16 / Sunrise at  7:10 a.m. / Sunset at  7:26 p.m.

Local               Forecast For     Monday     March 24, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 33                    MAX= 50
TEMP  41 40 38 38 37 36 36 35 32 34 37 40 42 44 46 47 50 50 46 41 36 35 34 30
DEWP  35 35 34 33 32 30 30 32 25 23 21 18 17 16 13 13 12 12 20 24 25 24 24 24
WETB  39 38 36 36 35 34 34 34 30 30 31 33 34 35 35 36 37 37 36 35 32 31 31 28
WNDS   7  6  5  5  5  6  6  6  8  9 10 13 10  8  6  6  5  3  3  2  1  1  1  0
WNDD       NNW      NNW        N        N        N      NNE      ESE        N
CLDC       CLR      CLR      FEW      CLR      CLR      CLR      FEW      SCT
INV    0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1  6
DEWF      D  D  D  F  F  F  F                                               F
POP6         4        1        1        1        1        0        0        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For    Tuesday     March 25, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 30                    MAX= 52
TEMP  30 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 35 37 39 42 44 46 49 49 52 52 50 49 47 46 45 43
DEWP  24 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 30 32 33 36 36 36 37 36 36 36 33 32 30 30 31 30
WETB  28 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 33 35 37 40 41 42 44 43 45 45 43 42 40 39 39 38
WNDS   0  0  1  1  1  2  2  2  2  2  2  3  5  6  8  9 10 13 11  9  7  7  8  9
WNDD       ESE       NE      ENE       NE      NNW       NW       NW       NW
CLDC       OVC      OVC      OVC      OVC      OVC      OVC      SCT      CLR
INV    6  3  2  2  2  2  2  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
DEWF   F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  D  D

Be prepared to run on Tue night/Wed morning if winds die down in a location like Kenansville (between Kinston and Goldsboro in kind of weather).

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     March 26, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 31                    MAX= 48
TEMP  42 40 38 37 36 35 35 34 33 37 40 42 44 46 48 48 48 42 36 35 34 33 32 31
DEWP  29 28 27 26 25 24 24 27 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
WETB  37 35 34 33 32 31 31 32 29 32 34 35 36 37 39 39 39 35 31 31 30 30 29 28
WNDS   9  9  9  9  9  9  9  9  8 11 13 16 16 15 14 13 11  9  7  5  2  2  2  2
WNDD       WNW      WNW        W       NW      NNW      NNW      NNE      SSE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR
INV    1  1  2  2  2  2  2  3  3  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1  2
DEWF                                                                        F

Then, for irrigation, the 3rd night of concern is Wed night/Thur morning:

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     March 26, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 31                    MAX= 48
TEMP  42 40 38 37 36 35 35 34 33 37 40 42 44 46 48 48 48 42 36 35 34 33 32 31
DEWP  29 28 27 26 25 24 24 27 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
WETB  37 35 34 33 32 31 31 32 29 32 34 35 36 37 39 39 39 35 31 31 30 30 29 28
WNDS   9  9  9  9  9  9  9  9  8 11 13 16 16 15 14 13 11  9  7  5  2  2  2  2
WNDD       WNW      WNW        W       NW      NNW      NNW      NNE      SSE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR
INV    1  1  2  2  2  2  2  3  3  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1  2
DEWF                                                                        F
POP6         8        0        0        0        0        0        0        0
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For   Thursday     March 27, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 24                    MAX= 62
TEMP  30 29 28 27 26 25 24 24 30 37 43 48 52 57 62 62 62 59 56 56 56 55 55 54
DEWP  24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 28 29 31 32 34 36 38 38 39 40 41 42 42 44 44
WETB  28 27 27 26 25 25 24 24 28 34 37 41 43 46 49 50 50 49 48 48 49 48 49 49
WNDS   2  2  3  3  3  3  3  3  3  5  6  7  8  9 10 10 10 10 10  9  8  8  8  8
WNDD        SE      SSE       SE      SSE        S        S      SSE        S
CLDC       CLR      CLR      FEW      SCT      BKN      BKN      SCT      FEW
INV    2  3  2  3  3  4  4  4  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
DEWF   F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F

Freezing air temperatures will occur on Wed night at around 11 p.m. in this location (Kenansville), but the wet bulb will be down to 31 F at 7 p.m. (1900), and this is when to start sprinkling up. Winds will be down to 5 mph, and then very low winds after that. Frost on plants at about midnight. But, you must start BEFORE you see frost! Start at 7 p.m. Here is an important table for precipitation rates – note that for a low of 24 that probably 0.14 inch/hr is enought with very light winds.pecip rate

Please check your area in NC to see whether frost conditions are expected tomorrow morning:

5-DAY DETAILED HOURLY WEATHER FORECASTS 

Some scenarios to consider in Piedmont (Greensboro) and Sandhills (Sanford)

In areas like Greensboro where a minimum of 32 is expected Tue morning, it would appear that overcast conditions and much lower dew points will prevent frost formation. A temperature of 32 is NOT GOING TO BE damaging. The minimum temperature must be below 28 F to see open blossom damage (in the absence of frost crystals on the blossom).

Local               Forecast For    Tuesday     March 25, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 32                    MAX= 44
TEMP  39 38 37 37 36 32 32 35 30 28 30 32 34 37 40 40 44 44 40 38 35 39 42 40
DEWP  17 17 17 18 19 19 19 21 17 15 16 17 16 16 16 14 22 22 12 11 10 14 18 18
WETB  32 31 31 31 30 28 28 30 26 24 26 27 28 30 32 32 36 36 31 30 28 31 34 33
WNDS   6  6  6  6  5  3  3  3  2  3  5  6  7  8 10 13 16 20 20 18 17 17 17 16
WNDD       SSE       SE        E        N       NW       NW       NW       NW
CLDC       OVC      OVC      OVC      OVC      OVC      BKN      FEW      CLR

Greensboro (cont’d)

On Wed morning it will be colder in Greensboro, and possibly 26 minimum according to AWIS. Dewpoints are going to be quite low and winds very high all night on Tue night/Wed morning. These winds are dangerous for sprinkling. Row covers only. With a minimum of only 26 (the temp in canopy and 6 1/2 ft up will be same due to winds), you will not need to use sprinkling on top. Just row covers will do it (assume 1.25 oz).

 
Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     March 26, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 26                    MAX= 45
TEMP  39 37 35 34 33 31 30 29 26 31 34 37 40 42 45 45 45 41 36 36 35 34 34 33
DEWP  17 16 15 14 13 12 11 11  8  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  8  8  9 10 10 11 12
WETB  32 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 21 25 27 29 30 32 33 33 33 31 28 28 28 27 27 27
WNDS  16 15 14 14 13 11 11 11 10 16 16 13 13 11 10 10 10  9  8  6  3  3  3  3
WNDD        NW       NW       NW       NW       NW       NW       NW        S
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR
INV    0  0  1  1  1  1  2  2  2  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
DEWF

Sandhills location – a strategy for this week:

In the final table in this advisory (5-day detailed for Sanford), you can see there was FROST this morning (I did let growers in this area know yesterday of this real possibility today). Now looking at Tuesday morning, they (AWIS) are saying not frost, but the temp is cold enough and winds very calm. Dewpoints are high enough for frost (24-26). Right now it says OVC (overcast) from midnight until 5 p.m. TUE. But if that changes early tomorrow morning, this area could have frost – like Kenansville!

Next issue is Tue night/Wed morning:

Note that winds will be pretty high, and dewpoints dropping through the night. The air will be too dry for frost. In my view, this could be a very tricky night in Sandhills, and if you have a row cover, this is the ideal night for that protection method. It is full of tricks and turns for sprinkler people. WINDS could be very serious all night, and low dewpoints make this a real challenge for sprinkler irrigation. In fact, I would be inclined not to attempt sprinkling in this locale on Tue/Wed. Send me a txt msg 919 418 9687 for guidance if you only have sprinkling, and be sure to txt me your zip.

Finally, Wed night/Thur moring:

Note 24 MIN – coldest of the week…this could cause a lot of injury to those larger emerged flower buds, and def. kill popcorns and open blooms. ROW covers again are the way to go! And, should not need to irrigate on covers. This is a very devilish night to deal with if all you have is sprinkling! Again, send me a txt message and your zip if you wish to have me update you. Basically, right now you would have to start sprinkling at no later 5:30 p.m. (5 p.m. is 1700). Thankfully, winds will start slowing down some (still about 8-9 mph), so you better be real real careful of cold jolt possibility with these winds and not play any games with early start time for irrigation at 5:30 p.m. Sorry, that one is not up for discussion. It will be a very long night of sprinkling, and not much fun I can assure you! Should make lots and lots of ice, and hopefully it will stay crystal clear. Check your precipitation rates if ice is getting cloudy look, and step it up!. This also may be a situation where if you do not have great confidence in your row cover that you will need to sprinkle on top if you need to protect open blossoms. I did get a report today of grower in another state who seemed to run into some issues at 24 F with Sweet Charlie open blossoms? He had Typar 1.2 oz. This def. surprised me. I associate 8 F protection with a nice 1.25 oz cover. Even if the minimum is 20-21 F for the night, a 1.25 oz cover should keep open blssoms out of trouble. But, stuff happens!

AWIS Hourly Forecast For Sanford_NC, NC     
Produced at  3:12 p.m. CDT on Mon Mar 24 2014
Day-Length = 12:17 / Sunrise at  7:14 a.m. / Sunset at  7:31 p.m.

Local               Forecast For     Monday     March 24, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 30                    MAX= 49
TEMP  40 39 37 36 34 32 32 31 29 32 35 39 41 43 46 47 49 49 46 42 38 37 36 34
DEWP  32 31 30 30 28 27 27 28 23 23 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 17 20 21 23 23 24 24
WETB  37 36 34 34 32 30 30 30 27 29 30 32 33 34 36 37 38 38 36 34 33 32 32 31
WNDS   5  5  3  3  3  3  3  3  3  5  6  7  7  6  5  5  5  3  3  2  1  1  1  1
WNDD       NNW        N      NNE        N      NNE        E        E      SSE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      SCT
INV    0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  2
DEWF   D  D  F  F  F  F  F  F                                                
POP6         2        1        1        1        1        0        0        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For    Tuesday     March 25, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 29                    MAX= 54
TEMP  34 34 33 33 33 29 29 32 33 36 39 42 44 47 50 50 54 54 50 47 44 43 42 40
DEWP  24 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 29 29 29 28 27 27 28 26 26 25 24 22
WETB  31 31 30 31 31 28 28 30 31 33 35 37 38 40 41 41 43 43 41 39 37 36 35 34
WNDS   1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  2  3  3  5  6  8 10 13 11 10  9  9  9 10
WNDD        SE       SE       NE      NNE      NNW      WNW       NW      WNW
CLDC       OVC      OVC      OVC      OVC      OVC      OVC      FEW      CLR
INV    2  2  3  3  3  5  5  3  3  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
DEWF                                                                         
POP6         3       56       56       73       73       29       29        3
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1  1  1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For  Wednesday     March 26, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 27                    MAX= 48
TEMP  39 38 36 34 32 30 29 28 27 34 38 40 43 45 48 48 48 42 36 35 34 33 32 31
DEWP  21 21 20 19 19 18 17 18 16 16 17 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 19 20 20
WETB  33 32 31 29 28 26 26 25 24 28 31 32 34 35 37 37 37 34 30 30 29 28 28 27
WNDS  10  9  8  8  8  7  7  6  5 11 11 15 15 14 13 13 11 10  8  6  3  3  3  2
WNDD       WNW      WNW        W       NW       NW       NW       NW       SE
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR      CLR
INV    1  1  2  2  2  3  4  4  5  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
DEWF                                                                         
POP6         3        0        0        0        0        0        0        0
Q1     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0

Local               Forecast For   Thursday     March 27, 2014 
Hour  00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                      MIN= 24                    MAX= 62
TEMP  30 29 28 27 26 25 24 24 30 37 43 48 52 57 62 62 62 58 54 53 53 52 51 51
DEWP  20 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 24 27 28 29 31 32 34 36 36 36 38 38 39 39 40 41
WETB  27 26 26 25 25 24 23 24 28 33 37 40 43 46 49 49 49 48 46 46 46 46 46 46
WNDS   3  5  6  6  6  6  6  6  6  7  8  9 10 11 14 14 14 14 13 11  9  9  9  9
WNDD       SSE      SSE      SSE        S        S        S        S        S
CLDC       CLR      CLR      CLR      BKN      BKN      SCT      SCT      SCT
INV    1  1  1  2  2  2  3  3  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0
DEWF      F  F  F  F  F  F  F

Well, gotta go on to VA advisory!

Good luck,

Barclay

Updated on Mar 24, 2014
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