30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (Feb. 23, 2014)

— Written By

The weather pattern looks to be quite active over the next month with frequent passages of low pressure system and fronts through the region. We will likely see brief periods of average to above average over the next month, but the temperatures look stay on average below normal through much of March.

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Period  1. This period (26 Feb-28 Feb) will see below average temperatures

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5: (26 Feb– 28 Feb) Below average temperatures, mostly dry.  The period will likely see below average temperatures as a strong cold high pressure system from Canada drops into the central US. Highs are expected to be in the high 30s to mid 40s and lows in the 10s to mid 30s. Precipitation is expected to be a very light winter mix with the passage of a cold front early in the period with amounts being in the  0.00 – 0.10 liquid water equivalent range.

Climatology Data
period 1 Station High T Low T
26 Feb – 28 Feb Charlottesville VA 50 30
Richmond VA 52 31
Roanoake VA 49 29
Hillsville VA 46 27
Greensboro NC 52 31
Asheville NC 51 30
Charlotte NC 57 34
Fayetteville NC 57 33

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Period  2. This period (1 Mar – 3 Mar) will have below average temperatures … highs only in the 30s to mid 40s with lows in low 20s to mid 30s…some potential for wintery mix!

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:   (1 Mar– 3 Mar) Below average temperatures and unsettled with possible coastal low.  At this time, the models suggest that the period will continue to see a northwest flow and below average temperatures with the possibility of a coastal low pressure forming early in the period.  Highs are expected to continue to be in the high 30s to mid 40s and lows in the low 20s to mid 30s.  Temperature will likely moderate somewhat late in the period.  Indications at this time are that the low will bring significant moisture but have a relatively weak circulation.  This situation would bring another potential snow and ice situation to the southeast and mid Atlantic states. Based upon this pattern, the precipitation will be a wintery mix in the 0.35 – 0.75 liquid water equivalent range.

Climatology Data
period 2 Station High T Low T
1 Mar- 3 Mar Charlottesville VA 52 32
Richmond VA 54 33
Roanoake VA 51 30
Hillsville VA 47 28
Greensboro NC 54 33
Asheville NC 52 31
Charlotte NC 58 36
Fayetteville NC 58 35

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Period 3. This period (4 Mar – 6 Mar) will have changeable temperatures from near average to below and periods of precipitation.

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (4 Mar – 6 Mar) Changeable temperatures from near average to below with periods of precipitation.This period looks to be changeable with temperature swings from near average with high in 50s and lows in the 30s early in the period to highs in upper 40s and lows in the 20s late in the period as a low pressure moves slowly through the region from the southeast. The exact track of the low will determine precipitation type, but at this time a wintry mix seems most likely across region. Precipitation amount will likely be in the 0.20 – 0.40 liquid water equivalent range.

Climatology Data
period 3 Station High T Low T
4 Mar – 6 Mar Charlottesville VA 53 33
Richmond VA 55 34
Roanoake VA 53 32
Hillsville VA 49 29
Greensboro NC 56 35
Asheville NC 54 32
Charlotte NC 59 38
Fayetteville NC 59 36

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Period 4. This period (7 Mar – 9 Mar) will see a “warm up” and near average temperaturess with periods of showers. The highs are expected in the 50s-60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (7 Mar – 9 Mar) Near average temperatures with periods of showers.  The period will likely see a warm up with temperatures being close to average for the season.  There will also likely be periods of precipitation as another low pressure will move slowly through the region from the southeast. This will result in a southern flow with mild and humid air moving into the region.  Highs are expected to be in the 50s – 60s and lows in the 30s – 40s.  Temperatures are expected to be warmer with this system, so liquid precipitation is favored at this time. Periods of rain and rain showers are possible through the period with precipitation in the 0.20 – 0.40 liquid water equivalent range.

Climatology Data
period 4 Station High T Low T
7 Mar – 9 Mar Charlottesville VA 55 35
Richmond VA 57 36
Roanoake VA 55 34
Hillsville VA 50 31
Greensboro NC 58 37
Asheville NC 56 34
Charlotte NC 61 40
Fayetteville NC 61 38

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (10 Mar – 17 Mar): Changeable temperatures from below to above average. The period looks to be changeable with temperature swings from below average to above average.

Day 15 – 22 Outlook
Climatology Station High T Low T
10 Mar – 17 Mar Charlottesville VA 57 36
Richmond VA 59 36
Roanoake VA 57 36
Hillsville VA 53 33
Greensboro NC 60 38
Asheville NC 58 36
Charlotte NC 64 42
Fayetteville NC 64 39

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (18 Mar – 25 Mar):  Below average temperatures.  Trends at this point indicate this period will likely see a shift to below average temperatures for the season.

Day 23 -30 Outlook
Climatology Station High T Low T
18 Mar – 25 Mar Charlottesville VA 58 37
Richmond VA 60 37
Roanoake VA 58 37
Hillsville VA 54 34
Greensboro NC 61 39
Asheville NC 59 37
Charlotte NC 65 43
Fayetteville NC 65 40
Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Retired Small Fruit Extension Specialist
& Professor Emeritus
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609

Written By

Photo of Dr. Barclay PolingDr. Barclay PolingFormer Professor and Extension Specialist, Strawberries and Muscadines (919) 515-5373 (Office) barclay_poling@ncsu.eduHorticultural Science - NC State University
Posted on Feb 25, 2014
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