Can’t Find Much Evidence of Jack Frost in Carolinas This Monday Morning! Also, Dr. Van Knowe’s Long Range Outlook (1 PM, 4/22/13)

— Written By Barclay Poling

4.29 to 5.5. outlook temp

Fig. 1. After some frosty, or near-frost conditions, growers will be happy to  see a return to normal, or perhaps ABOVE normal temperatures for 4/29-5/5. However, Dr. Van Knowe is anticipating, “Near average temperatures for the period from 4/28-5/12.”  Be sure to review Dr. Van Knowe’s Long Term Forecast (Part 5). Van Knowe also sees the period from 4/29-5/4 as a period dominated by clouds and showers…growers like Tom Baker in VA Beach feel this could be a “Botrytis friendly” period (see his comments in Part 6).

In this Advisory:

Introduction

Part 1. AWIS Min Temp Map for Tuesday morning

Part 2. Growers Reports from this morning – NC and VA

Part 3. SC Reports on Crop and pest issues – Powell Smith and Eric Hunter

Part 4. AWIS FROST/FREEZE for tonight

Part 5. Dr. Van Knowe’s Long Term Outlook

Part 6. Your feedback is requested on Long Term Outlook

Part 7. Precipitation Outllook

INTRODUCTION

Apparently, most farmers in North Carolina were spared a visit by Jack Frost this morning, but not in Central Virginia…several early morning reports, including one by a VA grower north of Ahsland, who said,

“All I can say is wow!” 

“Gotta be on your toes this time of year. Started (sprinkling about 3:40). Went from dew to frost fast. Made ice very within 5 min of start. Going to shut down soon (7:34 a.m.)” 

There was frost in Alamance Co. (Burlington), and there was likely frost up in the Mountains (but, no agent or growers reports from WNC). FROST is in the forecast for these locations in WNC tonight: Morganton – Morganton 5 a.m. frost; Jefferson – Jefferson frost 5 a.m.; and, Boone – Boone frost 2 a.m. tue.

There are concerns about festival events scheduled for this upcoming weekend (April 27-28), as the crop is ripening ever so slowly! The NCSA has put out their press release about how the crop is on track for a great Mother’s Day Weekend https://strawberries.ces.ncsu.edu/2013/04/news-release-about-crop-from-ncsa-today-friday-april-9-2013/

Here is the AWIS minimum temperature forecast for multiple locations across NC for today and the rest of this week: Min Temp Table NC

Part 1. AWIS Min Temp Map for Tue

Here is the AWIS minimum temperature map for NC on Tuesday morning:

min tue nc

Fig. 2. Frost is expected in some areas of WNC tomorrow mornnig (Tue). Growers in light blue, dark blue and pink color coded areas are very susceptible, and row covers should be re-applied today! The areas in teal (36-38) could be right on the line for a frost? better map

Fig. 3. I have included this county map so that you can see the potentially frosty area in northern Burke where frost may occur in the morning (Tue). Morganton 5 a.m. frost

Part 2. Grower reports from this morning:

8:17 a.m. – B. Poling contacted Mark Danieley, Agent Alamance Co:

Any frost on ground in Alamance?

10:26 a.m. – Response:

Barclay,

Larry had a heavy frost this morning, but he covered yesterday. He is hoping that was the last frost for this season (this was the area in Central Piedmont where NC Extension Frost Watch System said frost could occur this morning:  https://strawberries.ces.ncsu.edu/2013/04/300-pm-sunday-frost-update-for-north-carolina-be-careful-in-areas-colder-than-38-fapril-21-2013/

(cont’d) I was in Orange Co. last Friday for a meeting and went by Howard McAdam’s farm to look at his strawberries. His plants look great! He only covered the plants for a week or so when we had the temps below 20 degrees.”

China Grove

“We actually had some Sunday morning. Temps were lower this morning around
32 but wind was blowing and no frost. Don’t think we had any damage.”

Doug anticipates picking to start around May 3rd

Douglas Patterson
Patterson Farm Inc.

Durham

Nope. 37 at house. 34 at field but slight breeze. Please tell me we are done with this frost foolishness.
Cold ne wind right now. Brrrrr.
Gotta love being a farmer!

Mark Waller

Greensboro

No frost this am. Rudd Farm

Whitakers

Thought we had made it with no frost, but at 6:30 this morning frost started forming on the roof tops. We turned overhead from 6:30 to 7:00. Air temps was 37-38. Nothing appeared to make it to the ground, but safe than sorry.

Beth Taylor

Willow Spring

No frost (none was anticipated), but Ashley Porter mentioned to me that he did have clipper damage in some of his Chandler. I communicated this to Dr. Burrack this morning. I also noted from postings on NCCES web this morning on Clipper: https://strawberries.ces.ncsu.edu/2013/04/what-to-watch-for-strawberry-clippers/

So far, Ashley has been picking Sweet Charlies mostly, and some row covered Cams…big festival this weekend, and with colder temps this week it could be interesting!! At our church in N Raleigh we had to cancel a berry fundraiser for this next weekend (27-28) on account of late crop.

Virginia Growers – Lots of FROST issues in VA this morning!

6:44 a.m. Ruther Glenn, VA

“All I can say is wow. It was 29 here in an especially cold spot at 5:30, gone up a bit. Richmond is reporting 40. All forecasts way off on this one. Gotta be on your toes this time of year. Started (sprinkling about 3:40). Went from dew to frost fast. Made ice very within 5 min of start. Going to shut down soon (7:34 a.m.)”  Ken West

More reports from Central, VA

“Frost at 4 a.m. First appeared on dead grass clippings, grass row middles still had dew. Started wind machine in peach orchard, air temperature at 33.4 temp at ground level 30.5. Ran til 7, grass had hard frost tree bark also had frost, leaves still wet to touch. Wind machine gave about 2-2.5 degree rise each lap til 6:30. Looks like it might be last one. Wind machine is effective on elevated crops, but don’t think it would have worked last night with strawberries thanks chuck (Chuck Geyer).”

“Cold this morning! 29 and a very white frost. Skybit had said 32. Yesterday was 33 and no frost. We’re expecting some low temps again tomorrow. Getting a work out with the covers”
Tyler
Wegmeyer Farms
Lincoln VA

Barclay,
“No frost Sun a.m. low 36. Pretty good frost Mon a.m. low of 30. 30 is 6 degrees below what Skybit was calling for.”
Ben Miller
Locust Grove 22508

Part 3. SC Reports on Crop and pest issues

Lexington, SC (April 17)  “A few mites here and there. Good control with Acramite and Kanemite; poor control in two instances with Portal and Oberon.

We have been picking a great crop of ‘Camarosa’ for about two weeks in most places. This weekend was the first big weekend in the midlands with most places open to the public all day for pre-picks and pick-your-own. Really good size on these first berries now that we have gotten all of the cold weather junk off of the plants.

SWD problems everywhere. For those that have paid attention at the winter meetings, insecticides sprays weekly so far have worked. For control options for SWD: see page 24-25: StrawberryIntegratedManagementGuide_FJLFINAL2013

IPM - SWD

Powell

J. Powell Smith, PhD
Extension Associate – Small Fruits and Vegetables

Easley, SC (April 19)

We will be opening later this year than ever before. We anticipate a HUGE amount of berries during the second and third week of May. We have as many flowers this year as we had last year, but we will in all likelihood be picking them in 3 weeks less time. Thats concerning. However, I would much rather be in this boat as opposed to having to worry about not having enough berries.
Thanks,
Eric Hunter

Lexington, SC

Part 4. AWIS Frost/Freeze forecast on 4/22

AWIS Weather Services, Inc.
North Carolina Frost/Freeze Forecast
Produced at  506 a.m. CDT on Mon Apr 22 2013

… Forecast for Tonight …

Northeast NC Coast
Currituck/Camden/Pasquotank/Tyrrell Counties

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      48 – 55
Elizabeth_City Min          51

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

04/24/13  04/25/13  04/26/13  04/27/13  04/28/13  04/29/13
——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–
48 – 55   52 – 59   45 – 51   46 – 53   51 – 58   54 – 60
——–

East Central/SE NC Coast
Carteret/Pamlico Counties

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      49 – 53
Morehead_City Min           51

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

04/24/13  04/25/13  04/26/13  04/27/13  04/28/13  04/29/13
——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–
48 – 52   57 – 59   47 – 50   48 – 50   54 – 56   56 – 58
——–

Southeast NC
NWS FORECAST ZONES 87-90,96-101

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      43 – 50
Elizabethtown Min           48

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

04/24/13  04/25/13  04/26/13  04/27/13  04/28/13  04/29/13
——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–
48 – 53   54 – 58   44 – 51   46 – 51   52 – 56   54 – 59
——–

North-Central NC
Franklin County Area
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO CLOUDS/WIND ****

Lowest Temperatures:      38 – 48
Louisburg Min               38
Range Dewpoint Temps:     29 – 42
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     41 – 47
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE 10
AVG Sky Condition:         Cloudy

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

04/24/13  04/25/13  04/26/13  04/27/13  04/28/13  04/29/13
——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–
43 – 50   48 – 55   39 – 46   44 – 51   49 – 55   50 – 56
——–

North/Central NC
Alamance County Area
**** LITTLE IF ANY FROST DUE TO CLOUDS/WIND ****

Lowest Temperatures:      39 – 45
Graham_AG Min               43
Range Dewpoint Temps:     35 – 42
Range Wetbulb  Temps:     40 – 47
AVG Wind Direction/Speed:  NE 11
AVG Sky Condition:         Cloudy

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

04/24/13  04/25/13  04/26/13  04/27/13  04/28/13  04/29/13
——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–
45 – 50   49 – 54   41 – 45   46 – 51   50 – 55   52 – 56
——–

South/Central NC
Richmond County Area

*** No Frost And/Or Freeze Danger Tonight ***

Lowest Temperatures:      42 – 48
Ellerbe Min                 48

Extended Forecast: Range of Lowest Min Temperatures in the Above Zones
Min Temps Valid For Morning of Given Date (May NOT include ALL cold pockets)

04/24/13  04/25/13  04/26/13  04/27/13  04/28/13  04/29/13
——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–  ——–
49 – 51   52 – 56   43 – 48   48 – 50   52 – 54   53 – 57
——–

For more detailed information visit www.awis.com or call 888-798-9955.
Copyright 2013 AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved.

Part 5. Dr. Van knowe’s 30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC

“Overall it looks  like the temperatures and precip will be near normal for the next several weeks.”

Glenn
*********************************************
Glenn E. Van Knowe
MESO, Inc.
Vice President/Senior Research Scientist
E-Mail: gevanknowe@meso.com
WWW: http://www.meso.com
Tel. 315-337-9836
Troy Office 518-283-5169

********************************************

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5:   (23 Apr – 25 Apr)  Near average temperatures. Highs in 60s – low 70s and lows in the 40s. A weak cold front approaches the area late in the period with precipitation amounts being expected to be showery and light in 0.10 – 0.15 range with the frontal passage.

2013-04-22_13-05-50

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (26 Apr – 28 Apr) Near average temperatures. Highs in upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. High pressure looks to dominate this period with mild temperatures and little precipitation. Precipitation amounts are expected to be in 0.20 – 0.40 range during this period with some occurring as showers behind the weak cold front that moves through the area early in the period and some falling late in the period as an area of steady rain moves into the area late in the period.

2013-04-22_13-03-51

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (29 Apr – 1  May)  Near average temperatures. Highs near 70 and lows near 50. Clouds and showers will dominate the period with a series of weak low pressure systems that will affect the area during the period. Precipitation is expected to be showery in 0.25 – 0.55 range during this period.
Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (2 May – 4 May) Near average temperatures. Highs in low 70s and lows in the 50s. Clouds and showers will continue to dominate the period with several low pressure troughs moving through the area during the period. Precipitation is expected to be showery in 0.20 – 0.40 range during this period.

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (2 May – 4 May) Near average temperatures. Highs in low 70s and lows in the 50s. Clouds and showers will continue to dominate the period with several low pressure troughs moving through the area during the period. Precipitation is expected to be showery in 0.20 – 0.40 range during this period.

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (5 May – 12 May):  Near to slightly above average temperatures. It is expected that near average temperatures to slightly above average temperatures will prevail during this period.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (13 May – 20 May):  Near average temperatures. It is expected that overall near average temperatures will prevail during this period.

Link to charts: http://hss-1.us/ag-fcsts/Ag_Weather_30Day_Forecasts-test.htm

Part 6. Continuation of this service (long range forecasts) for next season?

I just want to let our readership know that I am attempting to get grant funding for continuation of this service next season. Some of the things we have discussed doing to further enhance this product are:

  • Converting the 1000 – 500 mb thickness forecast on the map to isotherms forecasts.
  • Providing subregional specific forecasts.
  • Increasing the number of climatological points for user guidance

Let me know if you have found the  30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC to be benefical to your operation this season? One grower wrote:

Utilizing long- and short-term weather forecasting to better schedule fall, winter, and spring row cover use and to properly time applications of effective fungicides has helped me break away from a traditional “calendar” scheduling of these management practices, and now I don’t just apply winter row covers in mid-December (conventional practice), but I evaluate whether the covers are needed or not based on this Ag Weather Outlook.

Tom Baker Thomas H. Baker, Director, Virginia Strawberry Association

Editor’s note:  I also received a note from Tom Baker over the weekend regarding his concerns with rains and sprays being washed away?

April 20 (12:43 p.m.)

Hi Barclay,

In front of the significant rain and that started here between 11 p.m. and midnight yesterday (the same frontal system that passed through Raleigh between 7 p.m. and 1 a.m. last night), we sprayed for light clipper damage.

The wind was up, 15-20 mph at Chesapeake, 10-15 mph at Pungo, so the spray dried quickly (dew points were 10-15 degrees below air temp at spraying time). No, I don’t like to spray in that much wind, but with the forecast for cooler and wetter next week (Botrytis friendly!), and with significant rain coming last night/this morning…well, you gotta do what you gotta do.

A little more detail:

Chesapeake:  The last spray was eight days previous. Sprayed between 5 and 6 p.m.; rain arrived shortly after 11 p.m., so last sprayed rows had 5 hours between end of spraying and start of rain. Rain was very hard at the start, lighter rain through the night.

Pungo:   The last spray was six days previous. Sprayed between 7:25 and 8 p.m.; rain arrived 11:45 p.m., so last sprayed rows had 3:45 between end of spraying and start of rain. Rain intensity at start was much less than Chesapeake.

Our forecast is calling for more rain Sunday night, Monday morning, Tuesday morning, Wednesday night, and Friday night. Continued rain in the forecast and clipper damage is why we pushed ahead with spray at Pungo even though it had only been six days since the previous fungicide application. Also, it was evening and the wind was up, meaning bee activity was at a minimum (concern for Brigade).

We expect to start picking about May 1 at Pungo and May 4 or a little later at Chesapeake. Plants are still heavy in bloom.

QUESTIONS:
·        Did the fungicides have time to do much good before the rain? (Or was it a waste of time and money?)
·        At Pungo, did the Brigade have time to do much good before the rain? Roy Flanagan and I “think” Brigade is a mostly contact killer with little residual activity (?)
·        How should I adjust the interval to the next fungicide application?
·        Should I re-spray Brigade sooner than the 7-14 day label interval?

I’ll be interested in what you and/or the other NCSU experts say about this. Thanks!

Tom

Part. 7. Precipitation Outlook, 4/27-5/1

above rain to 5.1

Thanks to everyone who contributed to this advisory!

Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Professor Emeritus/Extension Strawberry Specialist
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609
919-418-9687 (Cell)
919-515-2505 (Fax)
barclay_poling@ncsu.edu
https://strawberries.ces.ncsu.edu