16 Day Forecast and 30 Day Outlook Produced Feb. 3rd (2.4.13)

— Written By

Dear Growers, Agents, Agronomists and Others,

Dr. Glenn Van Knowe did an update of his 16 Day Forecast and 30 Day Outlook for our region late last evening (just after Super Bowl I received this). We have become accustomed to some rather wide fluctuations in temperatures this winter, and you will note that around next Monday (Feb 11) we will have a warming period (60’s and 70’s during day and 40s at night). At least it’s not going to be 70’s and 80’s  next week! The nightly lows in the 40’s are also encouraging for this period of warmer  temperatures in the day. Again, the primary goal at this time of year is to “hang on” to as much crop dormancy as we possibly can!

The part of Dr. Van Knowe’s forecast that I feel some concern about relates to 11-Feb to 13 Feb.: “Once the cold front passes, highs drop to the in mid 20s to mid 40s and lows from 20 to near 30.”  This does worry me a little! We have been in situations where temperatures that we thought would be in 20-30 range, went much colder! It’s not that I don’t trust Dr. Van Knowe’s temperature range in this period, but stuff does happen!

Back in the “dark ages” (last year) before we had Dr. Van Knowe’s excellent help with 16 day forecasts, we did run into a very nasty episode with a Pre-Valentine Freeze in the foothills region of NC and SC. I believe it was for the period from 10-Feb to 12-Feb 2012 that the strawberry crop got hammered by freeze that got almost down to 10 F in some areas – that’s enough to do some damage! You will definitely lose all your early strawberry blossoms with a freeze of magnitude. So, I am sort of remembering that very unfavorable episode of last year as I review Dr. Van Knowe’s forecast for this February. History can repeat itself! A row cover can do such a great job of buffering very sudden drops in temperature at this time of the year. I always favor having covers “on” at this time of year if there is a threat of temperatures in the teens, or colder!

Now, for all those growers who do not like to apply covers “at all” in winter, the good news may be that strawberry plants in our region “should be” more dormant this year than last year at this time. Do you recall the  unbelievably mild winter in Jan 2012? It was the perfect set-up for the Pre-Valentine freeze of 2012 in the foothill region of NC and SC  (our crop really never really went dormant last winter). My point? I believe that our plants are tougher this season than last year at this time. So, if Dr. Van Know is correct, and the  minimums do not go below 20 F next week,  then the crop “should be” ok without row cover protection.

Nonetheless, we will need to monitor this situation all through this week, and some decisions on whether covers are needed, or not, can be made towards the end of this  week (I may have to take leave of the Agent In-Service Training in Raleigh this week on Wed/Thur to assess the “situation”).

Anyway, there doesn’t appear to be much problem with a decision to simply leave the covers on through this week, as we will be having below average temperatures. And, if we are in for a severe freeze  next week, you won’t have to bother with getting covers back on!

You will  note in Glenn’s forecast for  14 Feb – 16 Feb that this could be  a period with heavy rains and possibly snow in some areas. So, if the covers remain in place for the next few weeks, it looks like they will be very soggy part of the time. Wet covers can be a problem whenever there is a very sudden hard freeze, and there is not time for the covers to dry. In some instances, we have seen the wet covers literally “freeze to the plants” and that is never a good thing. But, let’s not worry about that today. I do see that Dr. Van Knowe is expecting that by the final week of February 2013, we will be getting  some moderating temperatures. I would not be surprised to see a very fast bloom at the end of February/early March this year.

Once we get into “serious” bloom, then we all have to be ready for frost and freeze protection activities, and those activities may have to involve irrigation usage as well. I would use my time in early to mid-February this year to “get ready” for what may be a very choppy frost and freeze season in March 2013!

Before March gets here, you will want to pull the covers aside at some point this month, and do late winter “clean-up” of plants (removing dead plant parts), inspect for aphids and mites, treat annual ryegrass (with post emergent), deal with winter weeds, and also make a careful assessment of your crop’s condition. Some of you with Nova Scotia sourced tips and plugs, need to be on  alert for strawberry aphid. Go to these sources for more information about why it may be important to control strawberry aphids in 2013 before bloom: http://ncsmallfruitsipm.blogspot.com/2013/01/what-to-watch-for-aphids-in-strawberries.html

16 Day Forecast and 30 Day Outlook – Dr. Glenn Van Knowe

Forecast discussion day 3 – 5:(5 Feb – 7 Feb) Below average temperatures. Highs in mid 30s to mid 40s and lows from 20 to low 30s. A strong, cold high pressure will dominate the period with brief periods of light snow in the hills and mountains associated with a weak wave of low pressure that will move through the region. Precipitation amounts in the 0.05 – 0.15″ range (water equivalent for snowfall.)

Forecast discussion day 6 – 8: (8 Feb – 10 Feb):  Slightly below average early, to above average late. Highs in low 30s to low 40s and lows from 20 to near 30. A cold high pressure will dominate the region early in the period, but a warm up will begin later in the period. Periods of light rain showers (snow showers possible above 3000 feet). Precipitation amounts in the 0.10 – 0.20″ range (water equivalent for snowfall.)

Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (11 Feb – 13 Feb) Above average early, below, below average temperatures late in the period. A strong low pressure system will track from southwest to northeast to the west of the forecast region early in the period.Initially the temperatures will be warm and well above average ahead of a strong front with highs in 60s and even 70s and lows in the 40s. Once the cold front passes, highs drop to the in mid 20s to mid 40s and lows from 20 to near 30. As the front passes it will bring a period of heavy rain along the coast and rain changing to snow inland. Precipitation amounts in the 0.50 – 1.00″ range (water equivalent for snowfall.)

Forecast discussion day 12 – 14: (14 Feb – 16 Feb):  Below average temperatures. Highs in mid 30s to low 40s and lows from 20 to near 30. There is a chance for a strong low pressure system to form in the Gulf of Mexico and move northeast along the coast as a classic Nor’easter. Such a system will bring heavy rain and or snow along the eastern seaboard, but the specifics of such system are very difficult to predict this far out. At this point, the track of any low pressure that does form  will bring rain along the coast with snow inland. There will be a quick warming ahead of the low pressure, but once the low moves north and east of the area, cold temperatures return. Some precipitation during the period is likely but amounts are uncertain at this point.

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (17 Feb – 24 Feb):  Slightly below average temperatures. Colder than normal temperatures will tend to persist early in the period, with temperatures likely moderating late in the period to near normal.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30: (25 Feb – 4 Mar): Average to slightly above average temperatures. An over all milder temperature pattern will likely set up in the last part of February.

Again, I greatly appreciate Dr. Van Knowe’s valuable assistance with this forecast and outlook!

You can see all the charts associated with Dr. Van Knowe’s forecast at this link:

30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC  (Link to chart explanation)

Have a great week!

Barclay Poling

p.s. we start our migration to a new website at the end of this week: http://strawberries.ces.ncsu.edu (NC Market Ready Strawberry Grower’s Portal will be officially closed next Monday. But, don’t worry, the IT folks with NCCES will be sure to  get you re-directed to the new site)

AWIS Weather Services, Inc. 7 Day Temperature Forecast
Produced at Mon Feb  4 07:15:15 a.m. CST 2013

MIN=nighttime low (7 p.m. previous night to 8 a.m. of the indicated day, local time)
MAX=daytime high (7 a.m.-7 p.m., local time)

                     Mon   Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
                   02/04  02/05   02/06   02/07   02/08   02/09   02/10   02/11
STATION              MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX MIN MAX
-------------------- --- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Western North_Carolina
Andrews               49  28  56  29  57  27  59  34  58  33  55  30  54  32  60
Asheville_Munic       48  30  55  32  56  30  57  36  57  36  53  32  50  36  60
Banner_Elk            41  26  47  27  47  25  51  32  51  31  46  27  46  32  53
Beech_Mountain        35  25  41  25  41  23  45  30  45  30  40  26  41  31  47
Bent_Creek            49  30  55  31  56  29  59  36  58  35  55  33  53  35  59
Black_Mountain        50  30  56  31  57  30  59  37  58  36  56  33  54  35  60
Blowing_Rock          38  27  44  27  44  25  48  32  49  31  44  27  44  32  50
Brevard               52  30  58  31  59  29  61  37  60  36  58  33  56  35  62
Burnsville            45  25  51  25  51  23  55  31  55  30  51  26  51  31  57
Canton                48  29  54  30  55  28  57  35  56  35  53  32  52  34  58
Celo                  46  24  52  25  53  23  55  31  54  30  52  27  50  29  56
Charlotte             50  33  60  37  61  36  59  43  59  42  56  34  53  41  64
Concord               50  31  60  34  61  34  60  39  59  39  56  33  53  38  63
Coweeta               50  28  56  29  57  28  59  35  59  34  56  31  54  33  60
Cullowhee             50  30  57  31  58  30  60  37  59  36  56  33  55  35  61
Enka                  46  30  52  31  53  29  55  36  54  36  51  33  50  35  56
Fletcher              47  27  53  28  54  26  57  33  56  32  53  29  51  32  57
Forest_City           52  34  59  35  60  33  62  40  61  39  58  36  57  39  63
Franklin_AG           51  30  57  31  58  29  60  36  60  35  57  32  55  34  61
Gastonia-Gaston       53  31  62  37  66  36  60  43  60  43  57  35  55  42  66
Gastonia_AG           51  33  60  36  62  36  61  41  60  41  57  35  53  40  64
Grandfather_MTN       35  25  41  25  41  23  45  30  45  30  40  26  41  31  47
Hayesville            52  35  59  37  60  35  62  42  61  41  58  38  56  40  63
Hendersonville        49  31  55  32  56  30  58  37  58  36  55  34  53  36  59
Hickory               47  32  58  35  58  33  56  39  57  39  53  34  51  39  59
Highlands             43  28  49  29  50  27  53  35  52  34  49  31  47  33  53
Hot_Springs           48  33  54  34  55  32  57  39  57  38  54  35  52  38  58
Jefferson_AG          42  28  48  28  48  26  52  34  52  33  48  29  48  34  54
Jefferson_AP_NC       42  32  49  35  50  32  51  38  51  38  49  34  46  40  54
Lenoir                50  33  56  34  57  32  61  39  61  38  56  34  56  39  62
Lincolnton            51  32  60  35  61  35  60  40  59  40  57  35  53  40  63
Long_Valley           48  31  54  32  55  30  57  37  57  37  54  34  52  36  58
Marion                50  33  57  34  58  32  60  39  59  39  56  36  55  38  61
Marshall              46  28  52  29  53  27  55  34  54  33  52  30  50  33  56
Mocksville            49  30  58  32  58  31  56  37  58  37  54  30  53  37  60
Morganton             52  32  58  33  59  31  61  39  61  38  58  35  56  37  62
Mount_Airy            48  32  54  32  54  30  58  37  58  36  54  32  54  37  60
Murphy                50  30  56  31  57  29  59  36  59  35  56  32  54  34  60
North_Wilkesboro      47  29  53  29  54  27  58  34  58  33  53  29  53  34  60
Oconaluftee           49  26  55  27  56  25  58  32  58  31  55  28  53  30  59
Old_Fort              47  28  53  29  54  27  57  34  56  33  53  30  51  33  57
Pisgah_Forest         48  27  54  28  56  27  58  34  57  33  54  30  52  32  59
Rosman                52  30  58  31  59  29  61  37  60  36  58  33  56  35  62
Salisbury             50  34  60  36  60  35  58  41  59  41  55  34  55  41  62
Shelby                51  32  61  35  62  35  61  40  60  40  57  34  54  40  64
Statesville           50  31  59  33  59  32  58  37  59  37  55  30  54  37  61
Tapoco                51  34  57  35  58  33  60  40  60  39  57  36  55  38  61
Transou               42  27  48  27  48  25  52  32  52  32  48  28  48  33  54
Tryon                 54  35  60  36  61  34  63  41  62  41  60  38  58  40  64
Vale                  51  33  60  36  62  36  61  41  60  41  57  35  53  40  64
W_Kerr_Scott_Reservo  47  29  53  29  54  27  58  34  58  33  53  29  53  34  60
Waterville            48  32  54  33  56  32  58  39  57  38  54  35  52  37  59
Waynesville           49  29  55  30  56  28  58  35  57  34  54  32  53  34  59
West_Jefferson        42  28  48  28  48  26  52  34  52  33  48  29  48  34  54
Yadkinville           49  33  55  33  56  31  60  38  60  37  55  34  55  39  62

Central North_Carolina
                     Mon   Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
Albemarle             52  33  62  36  63  36  62  41  61  41  59  35  55  41  65
Apex                  49  34  58  36  58  36  57  41  58  41  54  34  53  41  60
Arcola                48  35  58  37  57  35  56  40  57  41  53  34  53  41  61
Asheboro              50  35  59  37  59  36  58  42  59  42  55  35  54  42  61
Badin_Ag              52  33  62  36  63  36  62  41  61  41  59  35  55  41  65
Burlington-Burl       49  30  59  34  62  31  56  37  59  37  54  30  54  39  62
Burlington_AG         48  32  58  35  57  33  56  38  57  39  53  32  54  39  61
Carrboro              49  31  58  33  57  32  56  37  57  38  54  31  54  38  61
Carthage              50  33  59  36  60  36  59  41  59  41  56  35  52  40  62
Chapel_Hill           49  31  58  33  57  32  56  37  57  38  54  31  54  38  61
Clayton               47  31  62  37  60  34  56  39  60  40  55  33  56  38  63
Clinton               50  35  62  40  61  37  60  43  63  43  57  37  59  42  66
Danbury               46  29  56  31  55  29  54  35  55  36  51  29  52  36  59
Durham_AG             49  30  58  32  57  30  56  35  58  36  54  29  54  37  61
Eden                  46  31  55  34  54  32  53  37  55  38  51  31  51  38  58
Ellerbe               49  33  61  38  61  35  60  41  63  41  57  35  58  40  66
Erwin                 46  31  58  36  57  33  57  39  60  39  54  32  55  37  62
Fayetteville_AG       48  33  60  38  59  35  58  41  61  41  56  34  57  40  64
Fayetteville_AP       49  35  62  39  61  38  60  44  63  43  58  37  57  44  67
Goldsboro_AFB         47  34  66  40  64  37  57  42  61  46  56  35  57  43  65
Goldsboro_AG          47  33  61  38  60  35  56  40  60  41  55  35  56  40  63
Graham_AG             48  32  58  35  57  33  56  38  57  39  53  32  54  39  61
Greensboro            46  34  57  34  57  35  56  39  58  38  53  33  54  38  61
Hamlet                53  31  62  35  63  35  63  40  62  40  59  34  55  39  65
Henderson             48  29  57  32  56  30  55  35  57  36  53  29  53  36  60
High_Point            49  35  59  37  58  35  57  40  58  41  54  34  55  41  62
Jackson_Springs       50  33  59  36  60  36  59  41  59  41  56  35  52  40  62
King                  49  32  58  34  58  32  57  37  58  38  54  32  54  39  62
Laurinburg            49  33  61  38  61  35  60  41  63  41  57  35  58  40  66
Lexington             50  34  59  36  59  35  58  40  59  40  55  34  54  41  62
Louisburg             49  28  58  30  57  29  56  34  58  35  54  28  54  35  61
Lumberton_AG          48  32  61  38  60  35  59  41  62  41  56  34  58  39  65
Lumberton_AP_NC       49  35  63  40  63  38  62  48  64  44  58  38  58  45  68
Maxton                50  32  64  39  66  37  61  44  63  42  58  36  58  41  68
Mcleansville          47  32  56  35  55  33  55  38  56  39  52  32  52  39  60
Monroe                52  34  61  37  62  37  62  42  61  42  58  36  54  41  65
Monroe_AP_NC          50  32  61  39  66  38  60  45  59  44  57  35  53  42  65
Nashville             45  32  56  34  54  31  53  35  58  37  51  32  54  36  60
Oxford                48  33  57  35  56  33  55  38  56  39  52  33  53  40  60
Oxford_AG             48  33  57  35  56  33  55  38  56  39  52  33  53  40  60
Pittsboro             49  30  58  32  58  31  57  36  58  36  54  29  53  37  60
Raeford               49  31  61  37  60  34  60  40  63  40  57  33  58  38  65
Raleigh               51  36  60  38  61  37  59  42  60  42  56  35  55  42  63
Raleigh-Durham        49  34  60  37  59  35  58  41  59  42  55  34  55  41  64
Raleigh_State_Univ    49  34  58  36  58  36  57  41  58  41  54  34  53  41  60
Randleman             50  35  59  37  59  36  58  42  59  42  55  35  54  42  61
Reidsville            46  31  55  34  54  32  53  37  55  38  51  31  51  38  58
Rocky_Mount-Wilson    47  33  60  36  59  31  55  37  60  41  54  33  55  38  62
Roxboro               47  31  56  33  55  31  54  36  56  37  52  31  52  38  59
Siler_City            49  30  58  32  58  31  57  36  58  36  54  29  53  37  60
Smithfield            47  29  61  35  59  32  56  37  60  38  55  31  56  36  62
Swann                 50  33  59  35  59  34  58  39  59  39  55  32  54  39  61
Wadesboro             51  34  60  37  62  37  61  42  60  42  57  36  54  41  64
Wilson_AG             47  30  61  35  59  32  55  37  59  38  54  31  56  37  62
Winston-Salem         48  32  57  37  57  35  55  39  57  40  52  33  51  41  59

Eastern North_Carolina
                     Mon   Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
Aurora                47  33  61  38  59  35  55  40  59  41  55  34  56  40  62
Burgaw                52  36  64  41  63  38  63  44  66  44  60  37  61  42  69
Cape_Fear             50  33  62  39  61  36  60  42  64  42  58  35  59  40  66
Cape_Hatteras         46  40  57  43  55  40  54  44  59  45  53  40  55  44  61
Cape_Hatteras_AG      43  38  58  43  56  40  54  44  58  44  52  39  54  42  58
Cedar_Island          48  36  62  41  60  38  57  43  61  45  56  38  57  43  63
Cherry_Point          46  33  65  42  61  37  57  41  63  42  56  36  60  42  63
Columbia              47  36  58  38  56  35  55  39  61  40  54  36  56  40  62
Edenton               47  37  58  39  56  36  55  40  60  41  53  36  56  40  62
Elizabeth_City        42  38  54  39  53  34  51  38  59  36  51  34  55  37  60
Elizabethtown         50  33  62  39  61  36  60  42  64  42  58  35  59  40  66
Greenville_AG         47  32  62  37  60  34  56  39  60  40  55  34  57  39  63
Greenville_AP_NC      47  34  58  37  58  35  57  39  64  41  55  36  57  41  63
Halifax_AG            44  31  55  33  53  30  52  34  57  35  51  31  53  35  59
Hatteras              47  42  58  44  56  41  55  45  60  46  53  41  56  45  62
Hofmann_Forest        53  35  65  40  64  37  63  44  66  44  61  37  62  42  69
Jackson               44  31  55  33  53  30  52  34  57  35  51  31  53  35  59
Jacksonville          49  35  62  40  62  37  62  42  66  43  58  37  61  39  67
Kinston_AG            48  31  62  36  60  33  56  38  60  39  56  32  57  38  63
Kinston_AP            47  35  64  40  61  36  59  44  63  41  58  35  58  45  65
Lewiston              44  32  56  34  54  31  53  35  58  36  51  31  53  35  59
Manteo                47  38  58  40  56  38  55  42  60  43  53  38  55  42  62
Milwaukee             44  32  56  34  54  31  53  35  58  36  51  31  53  35  59
Morehead_City         50  36  64  41  62  38  59  43  63  44  58  37  59  43  65
Mount_Olive_6SE       52  34  66  39  64  36  61  41  65  42  60  35  61  40  68
New_Bern              48  35  63  39  60  36  58  39  64  41  55  36  59  40  65
New_Holland           50  34  64  40  62  37  58  42  62  43  58  36  59  41  65
Newport_NC            50  36  64  41  62  38  59  43  63  44  58  37  59  43  65
Plymouth              48  35  59  37  58  34  57  38  62  39  55  34  57  38  63
Roanoke_Rap_AG        44  31  55  33  53  30  52  34  57  35  51  31  53  35  59
Roanoke_Rap_AP        45  33  59  37  59  34  53  37  59  41  53  33  55  39  60
Rocky_Mount           45  34  56  36  54  33  54  37  59  38  52  33  54  38  60
Shallotte             50  35  62  41  61  38  61  44  64  44  58  37  59  42  66
Snow_Hill             47  33  61  38  60  35  56  40  60  41  55  35  56  40  63
Southport             50  35  62  41  61  38  61  44  64  44  58  37  59  42  66
Tarboro               45  31  56  33  54  30  53  34  59  35  52  30  54  34  60
Warsaw                50  35  62  40  61  37  60  43  63  43  57  37  59  42  66
Whiteville            50  33  62  38  61  35  60  41  63  41  58  34  59  39  66
Willard               52  36  64  41  63  38  63  44  66  44  60  37  61  42  69
Williamston           46  33  57  36  55  33  54  37  59  38  53  33  55  37  61
Wilmington_AG         51  36  63  41  62  38  61  44  65  44  59  38  60  43  67
Wilmington_AP_NC      50  35  63  43  62  39  61  45  64  44  61  38  61  43  67

Copyright 2013: AWIS Weather Services, Inc. All rights reserved.