30 Day Ag Weather Outlook VA – TN- NC – SC (7 am, Monday, Feb. 3, 2014)

Dear Growers, Agents, Agronomists & Others

We have updated the online 30 day forecast  at http://hss-1.us/ag-fcsts/Ag_Weather_30Day_Forecasts-test.htm (go to this website to see graphics that go with forecast discussion for the period from today until 16 Feb).  Please be aware: We have included the  maps of the model forecasts for Feb 8 for the last  three model runs at the bottom of the htm document.  There continues to be inconsistency from model run to model run  after about 9-10  days.  So low confidence in forecasts  past Feb 7.

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Forecast discussion day 3 – 5: (5 Feb– 7 Feb) Changing temperatures from above to below normal and with a wet period.  The period will likely start with above average temperatures with highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s. The storm track favors a low pressure area moving to the west of the region from the south. This will bring mild temperatures with the chance for period of moderate precipitation early in the period.  Once the low pressure moves to the north of the region a cold front will sweep through the area binging colder than average temperatures and dry condition late in the period.  Highs will be in the low 40s and lows in low – mid 20s. Precipitation will be mostly rain in the 0.30 – 0.60 liquid water equivalent range.

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Forecast discussion day 6 – 8:  (8 Feb –10 Feb)   Warming temperatures and wet.  It now looks like after starting off cool and dry early in the period with highs in the 40s and low in 20s, a strong warm low will likely lift northeast out of the Gulf states bringing warmer and very moist air to the region. This will cause the temperatures to be above average with highs in the 60s and low in the 40s. Temperatures will drop quickly late in the period as the low pressure departs the region. Precipitation is expected to be moderate to even heavy falling mostly as rain in the 0.35 – 0.75 liquid water equivalent range.

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Forecast discussion day 9 – 11: (11 Feb– 13 Feb) Below average temperature mostly dry.  The period will likely see significantly below average temperatures and dry as a cold high pressure will move slowly through the region from the northwest to the southeast.  Highs are expected to be in the low 40s and low in the low 20s.  Very little precipitation is expected to fall in the 0.00 – 0.05 liquid water equivalent.

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Forecast discussion day 12 – 14:  (14 Feb – 16 Feb)   Below average temperatures, precipitation possible mid period. The period will most likely see temperatures continue below average with highs in the low 40s lows in the 20s.  A cold front is expected to move through the area mid period with a period of snow showers possible. Precipitation is expected to be in the 0.15 – 0.30 liquid water equivalent range.

Outlook discussion day 15 – 22: (15 Feb – 22 Feb):    Warming temperatures. At this time, trends suggest that below average temperature early in the period will moderate middle period to slightly above average for the season by the end of the period.

Outlook discussion day 23 – 30:  (23 Feb – 2 Mar):  Slightly above average temperatures. Forecast is still uncertain at this point for this period, but trends shows this period to slightly above average for the season.

Have a great day!

Barclay

p.s. we are removing row covers at Kinston research station today (Feb 3)…before the wet weather (see the Clayton SkyBit below)…lots of clouds this week and showers, including 0.19 inch today. We put our covers back in the barn to keep them dry.  Presently, the period that has Charles Barrow (Hort Crop Manager, Kinston) and I concerned is:   (11 Feb– 13 Feb) Below average temperature mostly dry.  The period will likely see significantly below average temperatures and dry as a cold high pressure will move slowly through the region from the northwest to the southeast.  Highs are expected to be in the low 40s and low in the low 20s. 

p.s.s.

I regret that this is the LAST SKYBIT you will see on this website for 2014.  This service is available for individual subscription.  For NC growers and growers in our region, I have worked out a group discount.  You can simply contact me at strawberrydoc@gmail.com if this is something you wish to subscribe to for this season (beginning 2/15 and ending 5/15).  The ABSOLUTE DEADLINE TO HEAR FROM YOU IS THIS WED. FEB 5TH.  NO LATER!  This is being done at cost, and with my new duties as Executive Director for the NC Strawberry Assn., I will not have time to accept requests for this service after Wed. this week. If you miss signing up this year, you can consider it for 2015. Most growers sign up for these 2x daily forecasts to start in mid Feb because of concerns with freezes that might injure flower buds.

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Dr. E. Barclay Poling
Professor Emeritus
Department of Horticultural Science
Campus Box 7609, 162A Kilgore Hall
NC State University
Raleigh, NC 27695-7609

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